Description
Book SynopsisThis new and final edition is a follow-up to the author's first book, Anticipating Surprise (University Press of America, 2002) and the Handbook of Warning Intelligence (Scarecrow Press, 2010). The first book was an abridged version of Grabo's 1972 manuscript, of which only 200 pages were allowed to be published by the government. The second book was published after it was agreed that the last 10 chapters would remain classified. These final 10 chapters have recently been released by the government and complete the manuscript as it was originally intended to be published by the author in 1972.The Handbook of Warning Intelligence was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to ha
Trade ReviewCynthia Grabo’s original Handbook of Warning Intelligence, written in the aftermath of the Soviet/Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia has, at long last, been fully declassified. The hitherto secret Part III of her study is now accessible for a public readership in this definitive volume. Professionals, scholars of Intelligence and Security Studies, students of International Affairs, and readers sharing an interest in Conflict and Crisis Management generally will all gain valuable historical and analytical insights from this most valuable—and greatly valued—manual. The focal points on the hitherto classified Part III are on intelligence analysis relating to particular types of warfare, and the provision of relevant, actionable warning intelligence to policy makers. Although the original time frame of the Handbook preceded the contemporary threat of Militant Jihadism, Cynthia Grabo’s risk assessments should provide important insights into current, all the more complex intelligence challenges facing analysts and policy makers. The issues addressed in the concluding chapters dealing with the making of analytical judgments regarding imminent threats, and with conveying these threat warnings upwards to managers and policy maker, are all the more telling and pertinent in today’s very volatile global security environment. This is a “need to know” Handbook of Warning Intelligence, a Complete and Declassified Work of Cynthina Grabo. -- Martin Rudner, distinguished research professor emeritus at Carleton University, Ottawa. Prior to his retirement he was a professor at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, and founding director of the Canadian Centre of Intelligence and Security Studies at Carleton
Table of ContentsForeword to the new edition Foreword to the previous edition Author’s note to the original edition Part I: Why Warning Intelligence And What Is It? Some Fundamentals Chapter 1: General Nature of the Problem Chapter 2: Definitions of Terms and Their Usage Chapter 3: What Warning Is and Is Not Chapter 4: Warning and Collection Chapter 5: Intentions versus Capabilities Part II: Organization and Tools of the Trade Chapter 6: Problems of Organization and Management Chapter 7: Indicator lists Chapter 8: The Compiling of Indications Chapter 9: Can Computers 'Hel p? Part III: Introduction to the Analytical Method Chapter 10: Some Fundamentals of Indications Analysis Chapter 11: Some Specifics of the Analytical Method. Chapter 12: What Makes a Good Warning Analyst? Part IV: Specific Problems of Military Analysis Chapter 13: Importance of Military Indications Chapter 14: Order of Bottle Analysis in Crisis Situations Chapter 15: Analysis of Mobilization Chapter 16: Logistics is the Queen of Battles Chapter 17: Other Factors in Combat Preparations Chapter 18: Coping with Extraordinary Military Developments Part V: Specific Problems of Political, Civil and Economic Analysis Chapter 19: Importance of Political Factors for Warning Chapter 20: Basic Political Warning -- A Problem of Perception Chapter 21: Some Specific Factors in Political Warning Chapter 22: Economic Indicators Chapter 23: Civil Defense Chapter 24: Security, Counter-Intelligence and Agent Preparations Part VI: Some Major Analytical Problems Chapter 25: Warning from the Totality of Evidence Chapter 26: The Impact on Warning of Circumstances Leading to War Chapter 27: Reconstructing the Enemy’s Decision Making Process Chapter 28: Assessing the Timing of Attack Chapter 29: Deception: Can We Cope With It? The following chapters are new to this edition. Part VII: Problems of Particular Types Of Warfare Chapter 30: Analysis with Hostilities Already in Progress Chapter 31: Problems Peculiar to Guerrilla Warfare and “Wars of Liberation” Chapter 32: Hypothetical Problems of the Coming of World War III Part VIII: Reaching And Reporting The Warning Judgment Chapter 33: Vital Importance of the Judgment Chapter 34: What Does the Policy Maker Need, and Want to Know? Chapter 35: How to Write Indications or Warning Items Chapter 36: Assessing Probabilities Chapter 37: Some Major Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting Chapter 38: Most Frequent Errors in the Judgment and Reporting Process Part IX: Conclusions Chapter 39: A Summing Up, With Some Do’s and Don'ts for Analysts and Supervisors About the Authors
