Description
Book SynopsisA ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field.
Table of ContentsList of Figures ix
List of Tables xiii
Foreword xv
Preface xxi
Acknowledgments xxv
About the Authors xxvii
Acronyms xxxi
1 Introduction to Decision Analysis 1
Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick
2 Decision-Making Challenges 22
Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell
3 Foundations of Decision Analysis 46
Gregory S. Parnell and Steven N. Tani
4 Decision Analysis Soft Skills 68
Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell
5 Use the Appropriate Decision Process 92
Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell
6 Frame the Decision Opportunity 110
Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell
7 Craft the Decision Objectives and Value Measures 127
Gregory S. Parnell, Terry A. Bresnick, and Eric R. Johnson
8 Design Creative Alternatives 149
Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell
9 Perform Deterministic Analysis and Develop Insights 166
Eric R. Johnson, Gregory S. Parnell, and Steven N. Tani
10 Quantify Uncertainty 227
Eric R. Johnson and Steven N. Tani
11 Perform Probabilistic Analysis and Identify Insights 248
Eric R. Johnson and Steven N. Tani
12 Portfolio Resource Allocation 291
Terry A. Bresnick, Eric R. Johnson, and Gregory S. Parnell
13 Communicating with Decision Makers and Stakeholders 320
Gregory S. Parnell and Terry A. Bresnick
14 Enable Decision Implementation 340
Terry A. Bresnick and Gregory S. Parnell
15 Summary of Major Themes 351
Gregory S. Parnell
Appendix A: Probability Theory 362
Steven N. Tani
Appendix B: Influence Diagrams 374
Steven N. Tani and Gregory S. Parnell
Appendix C: Decision Conferencing 381
Terry A. Bresnick
Index 392
