Description
Book SynopsisDevelops protocols for conducting counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War.
Trade Review"If nothing else, Forbidden Fruit shows how, through counterfactual, alternative thinking, a resounding acknowledgement of the arts can be achieved."--David Marx, David Marx Reviews "I have benefited enormously from Ned Lebow's learning, imagination and intellectual effort, and am sure that many readers will feel the same way towards this judicious, yet daring, scholarly contribution to the study of history and international relations."--Hidemi Suganami, International Affairs
Table of ContentsAcknowledgments ix PART ONE Chapter One: Making Sense of the World 3 Chapter Two: Counterfactual Thought Experiments 29 PART TWO Chapter Three: Franz Ferdinand Found Alive: World War I Unnecessary 69 Chapter Four: Leadership and the End of the Cold War: Did It Have to End This Way? 103 Coauthored with George W. Breslauer PART THREE Chapter Five: Scholars and Causation 1 137 Coauthored with Philip E. Tetlock Chapter Six: Scholars and Causation 2 166 APPENDIX Experiment 4, Instrument 1: Unmaking American Tragedies 196 Chapter Seven: If Mozart Had Died at Your Age: Psycho-logic versus Statistical Inference 205 Chapter Eight: Heil to the Chief: Sinclair Lewis, Philip Roth, and Fascism 222 Conclusions 259 Notes 287 Index 329
