Description
Book SynopsisFisher Investments on Consumer Discretionary provides the average investor with the tools necessary to understand and analyze investment opportunities within the global Consumer Discretionary sector.
Table of ContentsForeword ix
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
Part I Getting Started in Consumer Discretionary 1
Chapter 1 Consumer Discretionary Basics 3
Consumer Discretionary 101 4
Getting to Know the Consumer Discretionary Sector 13
Chapter 2 The History of the Consumer Discretionary Sector 19
The Earliest American Consumers 20
The Birth of the Modern Consumer Discretionary Sector 23
Chapter 3 Consumer Discretionary Sector Drivers 35
Economic Drivers 36
Political Drivers 49
Sentiment Drivers 54
Part II Next Steps: Consumer Discretionary Details 57
Chapter 4 Consumer Discretionary Sector Landscape 59
Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) 60
Global Consumer Discretionary Benchmarks 61
Automobiles & Components Industry Group 66
Retailing Industry Group 72
Media Industry Group 76
Consumer Durables & Apparel Industry Group 81
Consumer Services Industry Group 86
Chapter 5 Challenges in the Consumer Discretionary Sector 91
Challenge 1: Growing Profits in Mature Markets 91
Challenge 2: Managing Volatile Demand 101
Case Study: Callaway Golf 106
Chapter 6 Household Debt—Myths and Opportunities 111
Household Debt in Developed Markets—Basically a Very Useful Tool 112
Tremendous Opportunities in Emerging Markets 117
Case Study: Brazil’s Credit-Driven Consumption Boom 118
Part III Thinking Like a Portfolio Manager 127
Chapter 7 The Top-Down Method 129
Investing Is a Science 130
Einstein’s Brain and the Stock Market 131
The Top-Down Method 132
Top Down Deconstructed 138
Managing Against a Consumer Discretionary Benchmark 145
Chapter 8 Security Analysis 151
Make Your Selection 152
A Five-Step Process 153
Important Questions to Ask 161
Chapter 9 Consumer Discretionary Investment Strategies 167
Strategy 1: Adding Value at the Industry and Sub-Industry Level 168
Strategy 2: Adding Value at the Security Level 174
Strategy 3: Adding Value in a Consumer Discretionary Sector Downturn 174
How to Implement Your Strategy 176
Notes 179
About the Authors 183
Index 185
