Description
Book SynopsisAn eminent China expert considers how the Chinese Communist Party will be removed from power and democratic transition will take place.
Trade ReviewChina's Democratic Future is a very smart and provocative book, as well as a tour ofancien regime China before it becomes ancien. -- Nicholas D. Kristof New York Review of Books This book is an optimistic prediction from a journalist with more than a decade's experience reporting for the Far Eastern Economic Review... this book is an important contribution to the debate about China's future. Publishers Weekly Although the author speaks to his immediate audience of China specialists such as himself, his prose is accessible to anyone wishing to study contemporary China in a serious way. Booklist Bruce Gilley, a China hand for more than a decade, puts forward the provocative hypothesis in China's Democratic Future: How It Will Happen and Where It Will Lead that within the next few decades, perhaps as early as 2010, China will become a democracy. He is in good company. Deng Xiaoping promised a democracy by 2035. -- Sandip Roy San Francisco Chronicle For one vivid glimpse of the future, you can turn to Bruce Gilley's China's Democratic Future: How It Will Happen and Where It Will Lead, which lays out a thoughtful, unusually detailed scenario for democratic change in the coming years. Baltimore Sun China seems out of sight, out of mind. Gilley reminds us that this is a monumental mistake... He leaves no doubt that for the Chinese Communist Party the end of days is rapidly approaching. -- James Harding Washington Post China's Democratic Future evinces careful research, clear writing, and a deep knowledge of China... His work is worthy of the best in Chinese geomancy. -- Richard Halloran Far Eastern Economic Review A deep knowledge of China...his work is worthy of the best in Chinese geomancy -- Richard Halloran Topics China's Democratic Future is an often thought-provoking work of political futurology...The first thing to praise is the bold, normative vision of the book...Gilley has done us a service. -- Stephen Green International Affairs China's Democratic Future is a provocative, engaging, and serious book previewing what may become one of the major political events of teh twenty-first century. -- Merle Goldman Journal of Democracy China is stirring, and Bruce Gilley has insightfully identified the evolving plot. -- Billy O. Wireman Charlotte Observer The book is an enjoyable and thought-provoking read that is strongly recommended... This book applies high caliber scholarship to a daring argument...He does a profound service to the field by creatively enlarging our canvas, and reminds us that we are unlikely to find truth without taking risks. -- Barrett L. McCormick, Marquette University The China Journal Gilley has produced a lucidly written portrayal of a Chinese polity that may indeed exist one day. -- Patricia M. Thronton Political Science Quarterly Gilley has challenged us all to think more clearly about the factors involved in shaping China's future. -- Joseph Fewsmith Taiwan Journal of Democracy An ambitious book. -- Josephe Cheng Journal of Chinese Political Science
Table of ContentsIntroduction Part 1: Crisis Democracy and China Democracy's Spread The Struggle for Democracy ( China's Democratic Potential Broken Promises The Republican Failure Mao's China Post-Mao Reforms The Last Days of Dictatorship The Torment of CCP Rule The PRC System A Metaphor for Transition State and Society Sustaining Economic Growth The Social Malaise A Troubled Diplomacy Political Dysfunction Resources for Change Tocqueville's Paradox The Privatization of Economic Life New Ideas New Societies Democratic Diplomacy and US Policy Border Effects and Global Civil Society Political Decompression Part II: Transition Breakdown and Mobilization Predicting Change Gradual Democracy? Metastatic Crisis Popular Mobilization Violence Last Ditchism Collapse? The Eve of Transition Democratic Breakthrough Extrication or Overthrow? The Heroes of Retreat The Pact Ending the PRC The Immediate The Interim Regime Sudden Politicization International Reaction Part III: Consolidation The Political Challenge Will Democracy Fail? Legacies and Choices New Institutions Federalism Secession The First Election Rights and Interests Rights: Threats and Safeguards Towards Consolidation Political Life Local Politics and Hong Kong Refurbishing Economic and Social Life The Struggle for Interests Growth and Development Social Welfare Regional Interests A Free Society Dealing With History A Changed International Role Democratic Peace Transitional Diplomacy Relations With the U.S. Relations with Asia Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang Conclusion References
