Description
Book SynopsisChina has become an undisputed global phenomenon, yet twenty-five years ago, its remarkable accomplishments were largely unforeseen. In an ambitious effort to predict China''s coming decades, this book explores not only the economic development that has been a key indicator of its success but the often veiled political, social, and international determinants that will be crucial. Leading scholars draw on their years of experience and on-the-ground understanding of current trends to make informed estimates of China''s path, positing that its future may well hold neither threat nor collapse. All of the contributors provide a set of scenarios and order them in terms of likelihood, including the seven factors they have identified as central to charting China''s future: the Communist Party, local electoral reforms and rule of law, the federalist possibility, social unrest, foreign policy orientations, Sino-American relations, and the Taiwan conundrum. This book is a must-read for anyone who
Trade ReviewGiven the importance of China in a rapidly globalizing world, books such as this study of China's future will have a ready audience. Recommended. * CHOICE *
A useful and concise overview of major challenges facing China as well as an intelligent analysis of the complex forces affecting its developmental trajectory. * The China Journal *
China today has become a major player in global affairs. Globalization has made China an integral part of the world community, and what happens inside China will generate enormous external impact. Because the whole world has a stake in China, the country must be taken seriously. In this very readable volume, eight experienced China experts provide a highly intelligent and thought-provoking exploration. They present us with imaginative yet empirically rooted scenarios of a powerful and rising China. -- Yongnian Zheng, University of Nottingham
Everyone wants to know where China is headed; speculation is rampant, but serious analysis is often lacking. This volume, superbly compiled by Jae Ho Chung, provides an informed understanding of the contextual factors, defining determinants, and operative variables that are shaping China's future. The analysis leaves the reader with a keen sense of the fragilities that lie beneath China's impressive growth and international profile. Rather than risking a single prediction, the volume posits a range of alternative pathways for China's future. It is required and informative reading for all China analysts worldwide. -- David Shambaugh, The George Washington University and The Brookings Institution
Charting China's Future takes on one of the most important questions of the coming decades: what is in store for China's development and what forces will shape this story? This edited volume brings together essays by highly knowledgeable individuals, each addressing a key aspect of this issue. It has the virtue of having every contributor lay out an array of potential developments, provide an assessment as to the relative likelihood of each, and explain the forces that inform that assessment. The result is a volume that provides a rich menu of important concerns and a very good basis for understanding the complex forces driving the future development of the People's Republic of China. -- Kenneth G. Lieberthal, University of Michigan
Table of ContentsChapter 1: Forecasting China's Future: Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Determinants Chapter 2: The Future of the Chinese Communist Party: Strategies of Survival and Prospects for Change Chapter 3: The Rule of Law and Electoral Processes: Present and Future Forecasts Chapter 4: The Federalist Possibility? Breaking the Chinese Exceptionalism Chapter 5: Assessing the Odds against the Mandate of Heaven: Do the Numbers (on Instability) Really Matter? Chapter 6: Projecting China's Foreign Policy: Determining Factors and Scenarios Chapter 7: The Future of United States-China Relations: System, State, and Individual-Level Drivers Chapter 8: The Taiwan Conundrum Chapter 9: What Chinese Characteristics? Looking to the Past for Clues about the Future
