Description
Book SynopsisCalculating Credibility examinesand ultimately rejectsa fundamental belief held by laypeople and the makers of American foreign policy: the notion that backing down during a crisis reduces a country''s future credibility. Fear of diminished credibility motivated America''s costly participation in the Korean and Vietnam wars, and, since the end of the Cold War, this concern has continued to guide American policy decisions. Daryl G. Press uses historical evidence, including declassified documents, to answer two crucial questions: When a country backs down in a crisis, does its credibility suffer? How do leaders assess their adversaries'' credibility? Press illuminates the decision-making processes behind events such as the crises in Europe that preceded World War II, the superpower showdowns over Berlin in the 1950s and 60s, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. When leaders face the prospect of high-stakes military conflicts, Press shows, they do not assess their adversaries'' credibility by
Trade Review
Scholars have long been trying to drive a stake through the heart of one of the last century's most enduring legacies—Munich. The latest to grip the hammer is Daryl Press, and his well-argued (and commendably concise) book should be required reading for historians and policy wonks alike. Calculating Credibility compares two principal theories of crisis decisionmaking: 'past actions' (i.e., Munich), and 'current calculus.'.
-- Ralph Hitchens * The Journal of Military History *
