Description
Book SynopsisThis entertaining book describes the global history of economic fluctuations and business cycle theory over more than 300 years. It explains the core of the problem and shows how cycles can be forecast and how they are managed by central banks. The book concludes with detailed studies of how sub-sectors of stocks, bonds, hedge funds, private equity funds, gold, exchange rates, real estate, commodities, art and collectibles fluctuate over different categories of business cycles.
Table of ContentsList of Figures and Tables vii
Preface xiii
Part I The Discovery of Business Cycles 1
1. Gambling Man 3
2. Cash Payment 19
3. The Dream Team of Money 27
4. The Napoleon of Finance 47
5. Jay and the Phantom Gold 57
6. Seven Pioneers 67
Part II The First Business Cycle Theories 81
7. The Golden Era 83
8. The Archeologists 101
9. Fisher and Babson 107
10. Keynes and the Austrians 117
11. The Great Depression 127
12. Lover, Horseman, Economist 141
13. The Problem with Money 153
Part III A Hidden World 165
14. The Simulators 167
15. Brains of Steel 189
16. Fat Tails and All That 199
17. Monkey See, Monkey Do 213
18. Dot Bomb 231
Part IV The Essence 239
19. The State of the Art 241
20. Three Questions 251
21. The Five Main Drivers of Cycles 257
22. The Ten Challenges of Central Banking 271
Part V Business Cycles and Asset Prices 305
23. The Mother of All Cycles: Property 307
24. When Art was In 333
25. All That Glitters 349
26. What Things are Made of: Commodities 367
27. Bonds, Stocks and Funds 379
28. The World’s Biggest Market: Foreign Exchange 391
29. Business Cycles and Market Rotation 399
Afterword: The Beat of the Heart 421
Appendix 1: List of Important Events in Business Cycle Theory 423
Appendix 2: List of the Largest Financial Crises in History 429
Chapter Notes 433
Bibliography 449
Index 471
