Description
Book SynopsisWith a simple and clear exposition, Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis details recent advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis that can significantly change and improve how we learn from important practical decisions.
Trade Review"Dr. Louis Anthony Cox and 14 contributors have written a valuable text that describes the current state and recent advances in decision and risk analysis. Besides addressing breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, it also includes methods for deciding what actions to take when information is sparse and useful probabilities cannot be determined." (Ben Rothke, May 2016)
Table of ContentsForeword vii
Preface ix
Contributors xi
1. Introduction: Five Breakthroughs in Decision and Risk Analysis 1
Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.
2. The Ways We Decide: Reconciling Hearts and Minds 19
Edward C. Rosenthal
3. Simulation Optimization: Improving Decisions under Uncertainty 59
Marco Better, Fred Glover, and Gary Kochenberger
4. Optimal Learning in Business Decisions 83
Ilya O. Ryzhov
5. Using Preference Orderings to Make Quantitative Trade-Offs 123
Chen Wang and Vicki M. Bier
6. Causal Analysis and Modeling for Decision and Risk Analysis 149
Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr. Copyrighted Material
7. Making Decisions without Trustworthy Risk Models 189
Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.
8. Medical Decision-Making: An Application to Sugar-Sweetened Beverages 235
Andrea C. Hupman and Ali E. Abbas
9. Electric Power Vulnerability Models: From Protection to Resilience 259
Sinan Tas and Vicki M. Bier
10. Outthinking the Terrorists 287
Jason Merrick, Philip Leclerc, Hristo Trenkov, and Robert Olsen
Index313
