Released from Morgan Stanley''s archives and made public fo
Table of Contents
Introduction xi
Section 1: What’s Old is New Again 1
Section 1A: Market History and the Long View 3
In Search of History and a Word Processor That Works 3
Kondratieff and the Long Cycle 5
The Phony War 9
Ancient History 12
History, Market Deaths, and the Cult of the Equity 16
Section 1B: Fire and Ice 21
The Fire and Ice Debate 21
Ice Creeps On 26
A World Lit Only by Fire? 29
Section 1C: Bubbles and Panics 33
Manias, Panics, Crashes 33
Tulipomania 36
Anarchy 39
Life on the Good Ship Swine 43
The New New Thing 46
When? 50
Section 1D: Wars and Rumors of War 55
The Last Supper 55
The Beam That Broke the Camel’s Back 59
Bioterrorism and the Case for Higher P/E Ratios? 61
Section 1E: Geopolitics 65
Popcorn and the Decline of the West 65
Diary of Mikhail S. Gorbachev—Sunday, May 4, 1986 69
Close-Up 72
Diary of Mikhail Gorbachev, May 1987 75
The Diary of Deng Xiaoping: Wistful and Wishful Musings 78
Bottomless Pits and Nuts with Missiles 81
Diary of Saddam Hussein 83
Islamic Fundamentalism 86
Section 2: Economics and Investing 91
Section 2A: Economics and Policy 95
The Evolution of the Supply Side 95
The Tax Cut Misconception 98
Running the Movie of the Seventies Backward 100
The Piper Must Still Be Paid 103
The Old President with the Right Intuitions 116
What Kind of People are We? 119
Emerging Markets are Only for the Brave 122
Section 2B: Investment Discipline & Tactics 127
Discipline and Reading 127
How to Lose the Winner’s Game 130
You Gotta Believe 133
Section 2C: Market Psychology and Investing Philosophy 135
Contrarianism 135
Electronic War Rooms and Lying in the Sun 140
God is a Mathematician? The Fibonacci Numbers 143
Beware of Linear Thinkers: Chaos on the Upside 146
How George Soros Makes Money: The Theory He Says Guides Him 148
The Horse Whisperers 151
Mr. Market is a Manic-Depressive 155
Section 2D: Alternative Investments 159
Filthy Lucre 159
The Bull Market in Art: Mania or Magnificent Obsession? 162
Jewelry is a Girl’s Best Friend 165
Section 2E: Market Predictions 169
First Class on the Titanic 169
“It’s a Bull Market, You Know . . .” 171
Beware the Conventional Wisdom . . . 175
Dear Diary: Up with Which I Have to Put 177
Praise the Lord and Pass the Ammunition 180
“Even Monkeys Fall from Trees” 183
Big Fish Do Not Live in Small Ponds 188
Section 3: The Global View 193
Section 3A: China and Hong Kong 197
Buy Hong Kong 197
Own Hong Kong Big 201
More on China 204
China: “The New Emperors” and the Risk/Reward Equation 208
How Fast is China Really Growing? 212
China Tales 215
A China Traveler’s Tales 218
China Cooling, Us Heating 221
Section 3B: India 225
India Tilts to the Right and the Stock Market Explodes 225
India for the 1990s 228
Great Expectations 231
India: You Have to Go There to Understand 234
Section 3C: Japan 237
More on Japan 237
Long Trips 240
Japan Inc. Wants a Higher Yen 242
Japan Bought High and Will Sell Low 245
Section 3D: Europe, Middle East, Africa 249
In the Eye of the Storm 249
You Gotta Own Some Germany 253
Militant Fundamentalism Spoils the Middle East Story 256
Section 3E: Latin America 259
South America for the Nineties 259
No More Siestas 263
Argentina: The Magic Show 268
Buy Mexico and Brazil 271
Case Study: Peru 275
Mexico Will Make It 278
Mexico: Virtuous or Vicious Circle? 282
Brazil: An Act of Faith 286
Section 3F: East Asia 289
The Best-Managed Country in the World 289
Korea: Fat Premiums, Thin Pickings 293
Camelot 296
Letter from Myanmar 299
Victory Has a Thousand Fathers 302
Section 3G: Emerging Markets Roundup 307
A Bigger, Faster World 307
Jewel in the Portfolio 311
Section 4: Characters and Culture 315
Section 4A: Lunches with Luminaries 317
Investment Alchemy 317
Lunch with the Global Investor 321
Vanity Fair 325
Heroine Worship 327
Poker Games on the Titanic and Sir John 330
Section 4B: Jim the Trigger 333
The Summer of 83 333
The Trigger Comes Back for Lunch 336
U3 or “Many Shall Be Restored That are Now Fallen and . . .” 339
The Trigger Finds an Arb 341
The Trigger Comes to Lunch 344
Investment Life Its Own Self 347
A Country of His Own 350
Talking Technology with Jim the Trigger 354
Section 5: Travelogues 359
Africa 361
The Idaho High Country 364
Making a New High on Your Own Time 367
Stretching the Mid-Life Envelope 370
Japanese Landscapes 373
The Snows of Kilimanjaro 377
Pitfalls in Tokyo, Sand Traps in Colorado 381
Section 6: Books and Letters 385
Section 6A: Book Reviews 387
“Groupthink” and What to Do about It 387
Captain Money and the Golden Girl Ponzi 391
The Alchemy of Finance 395
I Wish We Didn’t Have to Play for George Steinbrenner 398
Noise and Babble 401
Section 6B: Biggs’s Reading List 405
Too Much to Read 405
“Books, We Know, are a Substantial World . . .” 408
