Description
Book SynopsisAubrey Clayton traces the history of the flaw that underlies modern statistics, beginning with the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture,
Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it.
Trade ReviewAn entertaining mix of history and science. -- Andrew Gelman, Columbia University
I like it! Anything that gets people thinking about the uses and abuses of statistics is important and Clayton's book does just this. Fifty years ago E. T. Jaynes opened my eyes to the importance of Bayesian ideas in the real world and this readable account brings these ideas up to date. -- Persi Diaconis, Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Mathematics, Stanford University
This story of the 'statistics wars' is gripping, and Clayton is an excellent writer. He argues that scientists have been doing statistics all wrong, a case that should have profound ramifications for medicine, biology, psychology, the social sciences, and other empirical disciplines. Few books accessible to a broad audience lay out the Bayesian case so clearly. -- Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, coauthor of
Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical CourseAs well-written as it is fascinating, and for my money is the best single-volume work describing and contributing to the debates in modern statistics on the shelves today. It can be profitably read by those with no background in the field, but will surely contain new ideas for experts as well. Having read the book, I myself will never think about statistics the same way. -- Dominic Klyve * American Mathematical Monthly *
A timely story, well-told. It makes a compelling case for a shake-up in the world of statistics that may just be strident enough to spark change. * MAA Reviews *
The author writes with style and humor and tries to make the read minimally pedantic. * Non-Stop Reader *
The book is highly accessible. . . . Even readers who ultimately disagree with the author's position will still benefit from reading this text. * Choice *
Bernoulli’s Fallacy will be of use to readers of any mathematical background who wish to understand not only the math but also the motivations behind the rising Bayesian wave. It is a vivid, nontechnical look at the bees in the contemporary statistician’s bonnet. * H-Sci-Med_Tech *
Table of ContentsPreface
Acknowledgments
Introduction
1. What Is Probability?
2. The Titular Fallacy
3. Adolphe Quetelet’s Bell Curve Bridge
4. The Frequentist Jihad
5. The Quote-Unquote Logic of Orthodox Statistics
6. The Replication Crisis/Opportunity
7. The Way Out
Notes
Bibliography
Index
