Description
Book SynopsisSTAY A STEP AHEAD OF THE MARKETS BY REJECTING GUESSES ABOUT THE FUTURE AND TRUSTING TECHNIQUES THAT WORK Today there are as many investment opinions as there are people. But as many a scorned investor can attest, predicting the future isn't easy.
Table of ContentsForeword xi
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xvii
Chapter 1 Being Right or Making Money 1
Ned Davis
Bad News about Forecasting (Being Right) 1
Good News about Making Money 5
Being Right and Other Investment Techniques Are Overrated and Are Not the Keys to Success 6
The Four Real Keys to Making Money 7
The Battle for Investment Survival and Handling Mistakes 12
Stories of Five Successful Winners 14
Making Our Own Reality 19
The Ned Davis Research Response to All This 22
Timing Models 23
What Is Contrary Opinion and How to Use It 29
History and Risk Management 32
The Rest of the Book 36
Notes 39
Chapter 2 The Model‐Building Process 41
Ned Davis
The Model‐Building Process 41
Where to Start: Model Inputs 41
Sentiment and Valuation Indicators 42
Monetary Indicators 43
Economic Indicators 47
Internal Indicators 47
Moving Averages 48
Crossings and Slopes 49
Momentum 54
Putting Indicators Together 55
Conclusion 57
Chapter 3 A Stock Market Model 59
Loren Flath
A Stock Market Model 59
Overview of the Fab Five 63
Tape Component 64
The Final Tape Component 73
The Sentiment Component 74
Sentiment Summary 87
The Monetary Model 87
Monetary Component Summary 96
Fab Five Combo Component 97
Combo Model Summary 103
Summing Up the Fab Five 104
How We Use the Fab Five 104
Chapter 4 A Simple Model for Bonds 105
Loren Flath
A Slight Modification 109
Summary 113
Chapter 5 Potential Bear Market in 2014; Bearish Secular Residue and Then Buying Opportunity 115
Ned Davis
Preparing for a (Say, 20 Percent) Bear Market 115
Sentiment and Valuation Indicators, If One Wanted to Be Bearish 115
Other Sentiment Indicators 120
Valuation Problems 124
Trend Indicators to Plan for a Potential Pullback—Follow the Leaders 130
More Leading Indicators of Market Peaks 132
Four‐Year Presidential Cycle Risks 136
Macro Backdrop: Debt Bubble Update 139
Watching Fed Policy to Prepare for a Major Pullback in 2014 147
What Do Demographics Say? 151
Chapter 6 The Aging World: Economic and Market Implications 155
Alejandra Grindal
Global Population View 155
Why Is the Population Getting Older? 159
Demographic Developments 161
Implications of Aging Populations 165
Ways to Offset a Declining Workforce 172
Conclusion 177
Chapter 7 United States Energy Independence –A Game-Changer 179
John LaForge
What the United States Consumes 181
The Thorn in the Side of Energy Independence—Oil and Transportation 183
Choosing the Right Fuel 195
Why Electric Could Be a Game-Changer 198
Why Electric Has Yet to Take Off 199
How Far Ned Could Go 200
Nat Gas—An Indirect Play on Electric 202
The Immediate Impact of Abundant U.S. Energy Resources 209
A Potential Headache for the U.S. Manufacturing Resurgence 212
Conclusion 215
About the Authors 217
About the Contributors 219
Index 223
