Description
Book SynopsisEconomic and stock market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a 35-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method to help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book helps readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see--and win a sizeable competitive advantage. Joseph H. Ellis was a partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked for 18 consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's No.1 retail industry analyst.
Table of ContentsPreface and Acknowledgements Part 1: "Seeing" The Economy: Creating Order Out of Chaos Chapter 1 Seeing Around Economic Corners Chapter 2 Making Sense of the Economy Chapter 3 Getting Out of Harm's Way: Redefining Economic Downturns Chapter 4 The "ROCET" Method: Antidote for the Recession Obsession Chapter 5 Smart Economic Tracking: Getting the Noise Out Chapter 6 The Nature of Leading Indicators Part 2: Consumer Spending: Cornerstone of the Economy and Stock Market Chapter 7 Consumer Spending: Powering the Demand Chain in the Economy Chapter 8 Consumer Spending and the Stock Market Part 3: Forecasting Consumer Spending Chapter 9 Predicting the Consumer: Do It on the Numbers; Lose the Psychology Chapter 10 Real Earnings: Powerhouse of the Economy Chapter 11 Employment and Unemployment: The Economy's Deceptive Laggard Chapter 12 Interest rates, The Fed's Mystique, and The Core Role of Inflation Chapter 13 Interest Rates and the Stock Market: A Concerned Look Forward Chapter 14 Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: There Is a Link Part 4: From Theory to Practice Chapter 15 "Drilling Down:" Forecasting For Your Own Industry or Company Chapter 16 Conclusion: Making Economics Happen Appendix 1 Credit: Consumer Spending's "Swing Factor" Appendix 2 Charting Economic Cause and Effect: Does it Work Outside the U.S.? Appendix 3 Major Industry Data Series Appendix 4 www.AheadoftheCurvetheBook.com Appendix 4 URLs for Charts in this Book
