Description
Book Synopsis
I. The Evolution of Scientific Conceptions of Uncertainty and Their Social Underpinnings.- 1. Coping with Uncertainty in Natural Science: 12001700.- 2. Political, Moral, and Economic Decisions and the Origins of the Mathematical Theory of Probability: The Case of Jacob Bernoulli's The Art of Conjecturing.- 3. The Quantification of Uncertainty After 1700: Statistics Socially Constructed?.- 4. Uncertainty and the Conditioning of Beliefs.- 5. The Unity of Probability.- 6. Necessity, Chance, and Freedom.- II. Risk Analysis and Social Responsibility.- 7. Risk in Cultural Perspective.- 8. Statistical Hypothesis Tests and Statistical Power in Pure and Applied Science.- 9. Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment.- 10. Uncertainty in Morals and Politics.- III. Learning and Acting Under Uncertainty.- 11. Re-Modeling Risk Aversion: A Comparison of Bernoullian and Rank Dependent Value Approaches.- 12. Neither Gullible Nor Unteachable Be: Signal Extraction and the Optimal Speed of Learning fro
Table of Contents
I. The Evolution of Scientific Conceptions of Uncertainty and Their Social Underpinnings.- 1. Coping with Uncertainty in Natural Science: 1200–1700.- 2. Political, Moral, and Economic Decisions and the Origins of the Mathematical Theory of Probability: The Case of Jacob Bernoulli’s The Art of Conjecturing.- 3. The Quantification of Uncertainty After 1700: Statistics Socially Constructed?.- 4. Uncertainty and the Conditioning of Beliefs.- 5. The Unity of Probability.- 6. Necessity, Chance, and Freedom.- II. Risk Analysis and Social Responsibility.- 7. Risk in Cultural Perspective.- 8. Statistical Hypothesis Tests and Statistical Power in Pure and Applied Science.- 9. Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment.- 10. Uncertainty in Morals and Politics.- III. Learning and Acting Under Uncertainty.- 11. Re-Modeling Risk Aversion: A Comparison of Bernoullian and Rank Dependent Value Approaches.- 12. Neither Gullible Nor Unteachable Be: Signal Extraction and the Optimal Speed of Learning from Uncertain News.- 13. Rethinking Rational Expectations.- 14. Multiattribute Decision Models: Task Order and Group Effects.- IV. Coping With Extreme Forms of Uncertainty.- 15. Measuring Vague Uncertainties and Understanding Their Use in Decision Making.- 16. Quantifying Vagueness and Possibility: New Trends in Knowledge Representation.- 17. Chaos and Complexity in Economic and Financial Science.- 18. Information.
