{"product_id":"willful-ignorance-9780470890448","title":"Willful Ignorance","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAn original account of\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cb\u003ewillful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThrough a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eWillful Ignorance\u003c\/i\u003e: \u003ci\u003eThe Mismeasure of Uncertainty\u003c\/i\u003e exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“This volume is an outstanding example of the need to keep our scientific methods in context and the value of careful historical research to provide this context. It should be a required part of the statistical training of every scientist.”  (\u003ci\u003eComputing Reviews\u003c\/i\u003e, 24 March 2015) \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003ePREFACE xi\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Two Dead Ends 2\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Analytical Engines 4\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e What is Probability?  6\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Uncertainty 9\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Willful Ignorance 12\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Toward a New Science 15\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e2 A QUIET REVOLUTION 19\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Thinking the Unthinkable 21\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Inventing Probability 24\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Statistics 27\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Taming of Chance 31\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Ignorance Fallacy 34\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Dilemma of Science 35\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e3 A MATTER OF CHANCE 41\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Origins 43\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Probability 44\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Famous Correspondence 56\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e What Did Not Happen Next 60\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e AgainstThe Odds 64\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON 71\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Mathematics of Chance 73\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Empirical Frequencies 82\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e A Quantum of Certainty 100\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL 114\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Publication at Last 116\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Art of Conjecturing 117\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e A Tragic Ending 142\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER 147\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Man Without a Country 150\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e A Fraction of Chances 165\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY 171\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Revolutionary Reverends 173\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e From Chances to Probability 194\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e8 BABEL 213\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Great Unraveling 216\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Probability as a Relative Frequency 219\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Probability as a Logical Relationship 228\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Probability as a Subjective Assessment 239\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Probability as a Propensity 247\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY 253\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Razor’s Edge 255\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e What Fisher Knew 257\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e What Reference Class?  262\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e A Postulate of Ignorance 270\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Laplace’s Error 279\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e10 THE DECISION FACTORY 283\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Beyond Moral Certainty 284\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Decisions, Decisions 298\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Machine-Made Knowledge 309\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE 312\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Scientific Progress 313\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Fooled by Causality 319\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Statistics for Humans: Bias or Ambiguity?  331\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Regression toward the Mean 339\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \u003cb\u003e12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY 346\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e A New Problem 347\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Trust,… 354\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e …But Verify 357\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Future 363\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Mindful Ignorance 368\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e APPENDIX: THE PASCAL–FERMAT\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654 373\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e NOTES 387\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e BIBLIOGRAPHY 415\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e INDEX 429 \u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48864641450327,"sku":"9780470890448","price":23.16,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780470890448.jpg?v=1722272857","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/willful-ignorance-9780470890448","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}