{"product_id":"trend-following-9781119371878","title":"Trend Following","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWant to take the financial journey to a new investing philosophy that might very well affect the rest of your moneymaking life? No one can guarantee the yellow brick road, but Michael Covel promises the red pill will leave you wide freaking awake.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eForeword by \u003ci\u003eBarry L. Ritholtz\u003c\/i\u003e xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSection I Trend Following Principles 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Trend Following 3\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSpeculation 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWinning versus Losing 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInvestor versus Trader 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFundamental versus Technical 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiscretionary versus Systematic 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHiding in Plain Sight 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChange Is Life 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFollow the Trend to the End When It Bends 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSurf the Waves 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Great Trend Followers 31\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eDavid Harding\u003c\/i\u003e 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eBill Dunn\u003c\/i\u003e 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eJohn W. Henry\u003c\/i\u003e 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eEd Seykota\u003c\/i\u003e 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eKeith Campbell\u003c\/i\u003e 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eJerry Parker\u003c\/i\u003e 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eSalem Abraham\u003c\/i\u003e 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eRichard Dennis\u003c\/i\u003e 77\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eRichard Donchian\u003c\/i\u003e 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eJesse Livermore and Dickson Watts\u003c\/i\u003e 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Performance Proof 91\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbsolute Returns 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVolatility versus Risk 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDrawdowns 99\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrelation 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Sum 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGeorge Soros 108\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBerkshire Hathaway 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Big Events, Crashes, and Panics 117\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent 1: Great Recession 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent 2: Dot-com Bubble 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent 3: Long-Term Capital Management 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent 4: Asian Contagion 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent 5: Barings Bank 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent 6: Metallgesellschaft 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent 7: Black Monday 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Thinking Outside the Box 177\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBaseball 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eBilly Beane\u003c\/i\u003e 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eBill James\u003c\/i\u003e 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStats Take Over 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Human Behavior 189\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProspect Theory 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmotional Intelligence 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNeuro-Linguistic Programming 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrading Tribe 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCuriosity, Not PhDs 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommitment 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Decision Making 205\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eOccam’s Razor\u003c\/i\u003e 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFast and Frugal Decision Making 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInnovator’s Dilemma 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProcess versus Outcome versus Gut 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 The Scientific Method 215\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCritical Thinking 216\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLinear versus Nonlinear 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCompounding 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Holy Grails 225\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBuy and Hope 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eWarren Buffett\u003c\/i\u003e 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLosers Average Losers 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAvoiding Stupidity 236\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Trading Systems 247\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk, Reward, and Uncertainty 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFive Questions 252\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eYour Trading System 263\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrequently Asked Questions 264\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 The Game 273\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcceptance 274\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDon’t Blame Me 276\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDecrease Leverage, Decrease Return 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFortune Favors the Bold 278\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSection II Trend Following Interviews 281\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 \u003ci\u003eEd Seykota\u003c\/i\u003e 283\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 \u003ci\u003eMartin Lueck\u003c\/i\u003e 295\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e14 \u003ci\u003eJean-Philippe Bouchaud\u003c\/i\u003e 311\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e15 \u003ci\u003eEwan Kirk \u003c\/i\u003e319\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e16 \u003ci\u003eAlex Greyserman\u003c\/i\u003e 335\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e17 \u003ci\u003eCampbell Harvey\u003c\/i\u003e 353\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e18 \u003ci\u003eLasse Heje Pedersen\u003c\/i\u003e 367\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSection III Trend Following Research 381\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e19 A Multicentennial View of Trend Following 383\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Tale of Trend Following: A Historical Study 385\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReturn Characteristics over the Centuries 388\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Characteristics over the Centuries 398\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePortfolio Benefits over the Centuries 400\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e20 Two Centuries of Trend Following 405\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrend Following on Futures since 1960 408\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtending the Time Series: A Case-by-Case Approach 412\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrend over Two Centuries 417\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e21 Trend Following 425\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to Different Trend Following Models 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiversification between Different Trend Following Models 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAspect’s Approach to Trend Following 429\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAspect’s Model Compared to Other Trend Following Models 431\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e22 Evaluating Trading Strategies 435\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting in Other Fields of Science 435\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRevaluating the Candidate Strategy 437\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTwo Views of Multiple Testing 440\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFalse Discoveries and Missed Discoveries 442\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHaircutting Sharpe Ratios 444\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Example with Standard and Poor’s Capital IQ 445\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Sample and Out of Sample 446\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrading Strategies and Financial Products 447\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e23 Black Box Trend Following—Lifting the Veil 451\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Strategies 452\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerformance Results and Graphs 456\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSector Performance 458\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerformance of Long versus Short Trades 461\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStability of Parameters 463\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAre CTAs a Diversifier or a Hedge to the SP500? 466\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e24 Risk Management 471\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk 471\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Management 471\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOptimal Betting 473\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHunches and Systems 473\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulations 474\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePyramiding and Martingale 474\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOptimizing—Using Simulation 475\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOptimizing—Using Calculus 477\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOptimizing—Using the Kelly Formula 478\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome Graphic Relationships Between Luck, Payoff, and Optimal Bet Fraction 479\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNonbalanced Distributions and High Payoffs 479\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlmost-Certain-Death Strategies 480\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiversification 482\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Uncle Point 482\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeasuring Portfolio Volatility: Sharpe, VaR, Lake Ratio, and Stress Testing 483\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStress Testing 484\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePortfolio Selection 485\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePosition Sizing 485\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePsychological Considerations 486\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e25 How to GRAB a Bargain Trading Futures ... Maybe 489\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow to GRAB a Bargain Trading Futures 490\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFollowing Trends Is Hard Work 490\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFiguring Out How the Pros Do It 491\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Computer Model of the Pros 492\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Terrible Discovery 493\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSolving the Mystery—Why Does the GRAB System Lose? 494\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOften It Is Out of Sync with the Market 494\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWorse Still, It Misses the Best Moves! 495\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMaybe Being Profitable Means Being Uncomfortable? 496\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGRAB Trading System Details 496\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBuys on Break of Support, Sells on Break of Resistance 496\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting Reveals Some Behavior I Do Not Expect 498\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDifference between Parameter Values Defines Character of GRAB System 498\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGRAB Trading System Code 500\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e26 Why Tactical Macro Investing Still Makes Sense 503\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManaged Futures 504\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefining Managed Futures and CTAs 507\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhere Institutional Investors Position Managed Futures and CTAs 507\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSkewness and Kurtosis 507\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eData 509\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBasic Statistics 510\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStocks, Bonds, Plus Hedge Funds or Managed Futures 511\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHedge Funds Plus Managed Futures 512\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStocks, Bonds, Hedge Funds, and Managed Futures 513\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e27 Carry and Trend in Lots of Places 533\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCarry and Trend: Definitions, Data, and Empirical Study 536\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCarry and Trend in Interest Rate Futures 539\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrend and Carry across Asset Classes 541\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCarry and Trend across Rate Regimes 545\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e28 The Great Hypocrisy 549\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 569\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAfterword by \u003ci\u003eLarry Hite\u003c\/i\u003e 575\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTrend Following Podcast Episodes 579\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEndnotes 583\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography 621\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments 635\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author 639\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 641\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48866393719127,"sku":"9781119371878","price":28.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781119371878.jpg?v=1722278443","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/trend-following-9781119371878","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}