{"product_id":"the-long-good-buy-9781119688976","title":"The Long Good Buy","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I: Lessons from the Past: What Cycles Look Like and What Drives Them 9\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1: Riding the Cycle under Very Different Conditions 11\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2: Returns over the Long Run 29\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReturns over Different Holding Periods 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Reward for Risk and the Equity Risk Premium 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Power of Dividends 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFactors That Affect Returns for Investors 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMarket Timing 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuations and Returns of Equities versus Bonds 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Impact of Diversification on the Cycle 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3: The Equities Cycle: Identifying the Phases 49\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Four Phases of the Equity Cycle 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMini\/High-Frequency Cycles within the Investment Cycle 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Interplay between the Cycle and Bond Yields 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4: Asset Returns through the Cycle 63\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssets across the Economic Cycle 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssets across the Investment Cycle 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Impact of Changes in Bond Yields on Equities 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Point of the Cycle: Earlier is Better 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Speed of Adjustment: Slower is Better 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Level of Yields: Lower is Better 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Shifts in the Value of Equities and Bonds 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5: Investment Styles over the Cycle 81\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSectors and the Cycle 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCyclical versus Defensive Companies 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValue versus Growth Companies 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValue, Growth and Duration 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II: The Nature and Causes of Bull and Bear Markets: What Triggers Them and What to Look Out For 97\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6: Bear Necessities: The Nature and Shape of Bear Markets 99\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBear Markets Are Not All the Same 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCyclical Bear Markets 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent-Driven Bear Markets 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Bear Markets 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterest Rate Cuts Have Less Impact on Structural Bear Markets 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrice Shocks: Deflation is a Common Characteristic 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBelief in a New Era\/New Valuations 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh Levels of Debt 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEquity Market Leadership Becoming Narrow 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh Volatility 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Relationship between Bear Markets and Corporate Profits 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Summary of Bear Market Characteristics 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefining the Financial Crisis: A Structural Bear Market with a Difference 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinding an Indicator to Flag Bear Market Risk 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTypical Conditions Prior to Bear Markets 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Framework for Anticipating Bear Markets 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7: Bull’s Eye: The Nature and Shape of Bull Markets 127\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe ‘Super Cycle’ Secular Bull Market 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1945–1968: Post-War Boom 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1982–2000: The Start of Disinflation 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2009 Onwards: The Start of QE and the ‘Great Moderation’ 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCyclical Bull Markets 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariations in the Length of Bull Markets 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNon-trending Bull Markets 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8: Blowing Bubbles: Signs of Excess 143\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSpectacular Price Appreciation . . . and Collapse 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBelief in a ‘New Era’ . . . This Time is Different 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeregulation and Financial Innovation 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEasy Credit 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Valuation Approaches 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccounting Problems and Scandals 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III: Lessons for the Future: A Focus on the Post-Financial Crisis Era; What has Changed and What It Means for Investors 167\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9: How the Cycle Has Changed Post the Financial Crisis 169\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThree Waves of the Financial Crisis 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Unusual Gap between Financial Markets and Economies 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll Boats Were Lifted by the Liquidity Wave 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Unusual Drivers of the Return 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLower Inflation and Interest Rates 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Downtrend in Global Growth Expectations 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Fall in Unemployment and Rise in Employment 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise in Profit Margins 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFalling Volatility of Macro Variables 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rising Influence of Technology 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Extraordinary Gap between Growth and Value 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLessons from Japan 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10: Below Zero: The Impact of Ultra-Low Bond Yields 201\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and Equity Valuations 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and Growth Expectations 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates: Backing Out Future Growth 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and Demographics 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and the Demand for Risk Assets 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11: The Impact of Technology on the Cycle 221\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Ascent of Technology and Historical Parallels 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Printing Press and the First Great Data Revolution 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Railway Revolution and Connected Infrastructure 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eElectricity and Oil Fuelled the 20th Century 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnology: Disruption and Adaption 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnology and Growth in the Cycle 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Long Can Stocks and Sectors Dominate? 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow High Do Valuations Go? 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Big Can Companies Get Relative to the Market? 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnology and the Widening Gaps between Winners and Losers 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary and Conclusions 241\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuggested Reading 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 265\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49407120965975,"sku":"9781119688976","price":25.64,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781119688976.jpg?v=1730498250","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/the-long-good-buy-9781119688976","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}