{"product_id":"the-business-forecasting-deal-9780470574430","title":"The Business Forecasting Deal","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePractical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cp\u003eWritten in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eAddresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eRaises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIntroduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eProvides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eIllustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eCouched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eForeword—Tom Wallace xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword—Anne G. Robinson xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrologue 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 Fundamental Issues in Business Forecasting 5\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Problem of Induction 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Realities of Business Forecasting 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Contest 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Is Demand? 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConstrained Forecast 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDemand Volatility 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInherent Volatility and Artificial Volatility 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvils of Volatility 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvaluating Forecast Performance 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmbarking on Improvement 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 1 29\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWorst Practices in the Mechanics of Forecasting 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel “Overfitting” and “Pick-Best” Selection 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConfusing Model Fit with Forecast Accuracy 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccuracy Expectations and Performance Goals 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFailure to Use a Naïve Model or Assess Forecast Value Added 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Hierarchies 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOutlier Handling 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Worst Practices in Business Forecasting: Part 2 55\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWorst Practices in the Process and Practices of Forecasting 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolitics of Forecasting 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBlaming the Forecast 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdding Variation to Demand 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvangelical Forecasting 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverinvesting in the Forecasting Function 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Performance Measurement and Reporting 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Software Selection 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEditorial Comment on Forecasting Practices 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 Forecast Value Added Analysis 81\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Is Forecast Value Added? 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Naïve Forecast 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Is FVA Important? 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFVA Analysis: Step-by-Step 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Application of FVA Analysis 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCase Studies 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary: The Lean Approach to Forecasting 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 108\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 Forecasting without History.111\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTypical New Product Forecasting Situations 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Product Forecasting by Structured Analogy 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOrganizational Realignment 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Alternative Approaches to the Problems of Business Forecasting.133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistical Approach 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCollaborative Approach 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSupply Chain Engineering Approach 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePruning Approach 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 Implementing a Forecasting Solution 151\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Do Forecasting Implementations Fail? 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreproject Assessment 153\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRequesting Information or Proposals 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvaluating Software Vendors 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWarning Signs of Failure 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Practical First Steps 161\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 1: Recognize the Volatility versus Accuracy Relationship 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 2: Determine Inherent and Artifi cial Volatility 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 3: Understand What Accuracy Is Reasonable to Expect 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 4: Use Forecast Value Added Analysis to Eliminate Wasted Efforts 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 5: Utilize Meaningful Performance Metrics and Reporting 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 6: Eliminate Worst Practices 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 7: Consult Forecasting Resources 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 173\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 What Management Must Know About Forecasting 175\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 1: Forecasting Is a Huge Waste of Management Time 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 2: Accuracy Is Determined More by the Nature of the Behavior Being Forecast than by the Specific Method Being Used to Forecast It 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 3: Organizational Policies and Politics Can Have a Significant Impact on Forecasting Effectiveness 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 4: You May Not Control the Accuracy Achieved, But You Can Control the Process Used and the Resources You Invest 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 5: The Surest Way to Get a Better Forecast Is to Make the Demand Forecastable 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 6: Minimize the Organization’s Reliance on Forecasting 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAphorism 7: Before Investing in a New System or Process, Put It to the Test 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEpilogue 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlossary 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix Forecasting FAQs 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccuracy Expectations 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerformance Benchmarks 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerformance Measurement and Reporting 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Naïve Forecast 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecast Value Added Analysis 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecast Modeling 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolitics and Practices of Forecasting 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDemand Volatility 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Process 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJudgment 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Organization 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLow Volume\/Intermittent Demand 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNew Product Forecasting 241\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Hierarchy 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSoftware Selection 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 247\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49402369868119,"sku":"9780470574430","price":30.39,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780470574430.jpg?v=1730480189","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/the-business-forecasting-deal-9780470574430","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}