{"product_id":"strategic-modelling-and-business-dynamics-website-9781118844687","title":"Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eInsightful modelling of dynamic systems for better business strategy\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe business environment is constantly changing and organisations need the ability to rehearse alternative futures. By mimicking the interlocking operations of firms and industries, modelling serves as a dry run' for testing ideas, anticipating consequences, avoiding strategic pitfalls and improving future performance.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eStrategic Modelling and Business Dynamics \u003c\/i\u003eis an essential guide to credible models; helping you to understand modelling as a creative process for distilling and communicating those factors that drive business success and sustainability. Written by an internationally regarded authority, the book covers all stages of model building, from conceptual to analytical. The book demonstrates a range of in-depth practical examples that vividly illustrate important or puzzling dynamics in firm operations, strategy, public policy, and everyday life.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis updated new edition als\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAbout the Author xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword by Peter Checkland xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface to the Second Edition xxi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface from the First Edition xxv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow to Use This Book xxxv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA New Approach to Modelling 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel of a Natural Fishery 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulated Dynamics of a Natural Fishery 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOperating a Simple Harvested Fishery 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHarvesting in Bonavista, Newfoundland – A Thought Experiment 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Start on Analysing Dynamics and Performance Through Time 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSaving Bonavista – Using Simulation to Devise a Sustainable Fishery 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDynamic Complexity and Performance Through Time 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCunning Fish – A Scenario with Reduced Dynamic Complexity 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreview of the Book and Topics Covered 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix – Archive Materials from World Dynamics 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking 31\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWays of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvent-oriented Thinking 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFeedback Systems Thinking – An Illustration 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Shift of Mind 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Invisibility of Feedback 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Start on Causal Loop Diagrams 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructure and Behaviour Through Time – Feedback Loops and the Dynamics of a Slow-to-Respond Shower 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProcesses in a Shower ‘System’ 44\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulation of a Shower and the Dynamics of Balancing Loops 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom Events to Dynamics and Feedback – Drug-related Crime 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Feedback View 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScope and Boundary of Factors in Drug-related Crime 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Aside – More Practice with Link Polarity and Loop Types 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePurpose of Causal Loop Diagrams – A Summary 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFeedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology-based Growth Business 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCausal Loop Diagrams – Basic Tips 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePicking and Naming Variables 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeaning of Arrows and Link Polarity 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDrawing, Identifying and Naming Feedback Loops 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCausal Loop Diagram of Psychological Pressures and Unintended Haste in a Troubled Internet Start-Up 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems 63\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAsset Stock Accumulation 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccumulating a ‘Stock’ of Faculty at Greenfield University 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAsset Stocks in a Real Organisation – BBC World Service 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Coordinating Network 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug-related Crime 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEquation Formulations 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDrug-related Crime 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFunds Required to Satisfy Addiction 77\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStreet Price and Price Change 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAllocation of Police 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExperiments with the Model of Drug-related Crime 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Tour of the Model 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEscalating Crime – The Base Case 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDrilling Down to the Equations 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnomalous Behaviour Over Time and Model Boundary 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBenefits of Model Building and Simulation 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 World of Showers 91\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGetting Started 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTaking a Shower in World of Showers A 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTaking a Shower in World of Showers B 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRedesigning Your World of Showers 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReflections on the World of Showers 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMetaphorical Shower Worlds in GlaxoSmithKline, IBM and Harley-Davidson 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInside World of Showers 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Tour of Formulations in the Comfort-seeking Loop of the Hidden Shower 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInterdependence of Showers – Coupling Formulations 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulations of World of Showers B 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building 109\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Overview of the Modelling Process 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDynamic Hypothesis and Fundamental Modes of Dynamic Behaviour 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTeam Model Building 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmployment and Production Instability – Puzzling Performance Over Time 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDialogue About Production Control 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThought Experiment: A Surprise Demand Increase in an Ideal Factory 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEquation Formulations and Computations in Production Control 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting Shipments – Standard Formulations for Information Smoothing 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInventory Control – Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Adjustment 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDesired Production 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Computations Behind Simulation 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDialogue About Workforce Management 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOperating Constraint Linking Workforce to Production 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulation of the Complete Model: A Surprise Demand Increase in a Factory Where Production is Constrained by the Size of the Workforce 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePause for Reflection 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEquation Formulations in Workforce Management 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeparture Rate – Standard Formulation for Stock Depletion 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHiring – Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Replacement and Adjustment 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWorkforce Planning 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to Cure It 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Curious Effect of Random Variations in Demand 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndustry Cyclicality and Business Cycles 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Formulation and What-ifs to Improve Factory Performance 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling for Learning and Soft Systems 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Second Pause for Reflection: System Dynamics and Soft Systems 153\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Link to Soft Systems Methodology 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlternative Views of a Radio Broadcaster 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams 162\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion 169\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStocks and Flows in New Product Adoption – A Conceptual Diffusion Model 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Bass Model – An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word-of-mouth 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Need to Kick-start Adoption 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Complete Bass Diffusion Model With Advertising 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word-of-mouth and Advertising 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low-cost Air Travel in Europe 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eeasyJet – A Bright Idea, but Will it Work? 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVisualising the Business: Winning Customers in a New Segment 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVisualising Retaliation and Rivalry 186\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFeedback Loops in the easyJet Model 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing the Fliers Simulator to Create Your Own Scenarios 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulation, Predictions and Scenarios 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix: More About the Fliers Model 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBack to the Future – From easyJet to People Express and Beyond 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 Managing Business Growth 201\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBackground to the Case 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAdopting a Feedback View 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFormulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReview of Operating Policies and Information Flows in the Market Growth Model 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCustomer Ordering 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSales Force Expansion 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBudgeting 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapital Investment 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGoal Formation 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Information Feedback View of Management and Policy 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInformation Available to Decision Makers and Bounded Rationality 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNature of Decision Making and the Decision Process 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSales Force Hiring – Standard Stock Adjustment Formulation 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSales Force Budgeting – Revenue Allocation and Information Smoothing 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOrder Fulfilment – Standard Stock Depletion Formulation 225\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCustomer Ordering 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth 226\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCustomer Response to Delivery Delay – Non-linear Graphical Converter 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCustomers’ Perception of Delivery Delay – Information Smoothing 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOrder Fulfilment and Capacity Utilisation 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssessment of Delivery Delay 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGoal Formation – Weighted Average of Adaptive and Static Goals 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapacity Expansion – Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProduction Capacity – Two-Stage Stock Accumulation 236\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulation Experiments 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulation of Sales Growth Loop 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrength of Reinforcing Loop 241\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulation of Sales Growth and Customer Response Loops 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulation of the Complete Model with all Three Loops Active – The Base Case 246\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRedesign of the Investment Policy 250\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTop Management Optimism in Capital Investment 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh and Unyielding Standards – A Fixed Operating Goal for Delivery Delay 253\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity 256\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverview of Policy Structure 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGrowth and Underinvestment at People Express? 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMore Examples of Growth Strategies that Failed or Faltered – and One that Succeeded 262\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGrowth Strategy for New Products and Services in a Competitive Industry 264\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix – Gain of a Reinforcing Loop 266\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 268\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Industry Dynamics – Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers 271\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblem Articulation – Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price 272\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTowards a Dynamic Hypothesis 274\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel Development Process 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision Making 278\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInvestment by the Independent Producers 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDevelopment Costs 280\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Structure and Formulations for Upstream Investment – Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment 282\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOil Price and Demand 284\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Swing Producer 286\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuota Setting 288\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Opportunists 290\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise of Russian Oil – Incorporating Unforeseen Political Change 291\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Shale Gale – Incorporating Unforeseen Technological Change 292\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConnecting the Pieces – A Feedback Systems View 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTwo Invisible Hands and More 295\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Visible Hand of OPEC 297\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWebs of Intrigue – Inside OPEC’s Opulent Bargaining Rooms 297\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession 300\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing the Model to Generate Scenarios 301\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eArchive Scenario 1: 10-Year Supply Squeeze Followed by SupplyGlut 301\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eArchive Scenario 2: Quota Busting in a Green World 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario from the Mid-1990s to 2020: Asian Boom with Quota Busting, Cautious Upstream Investment and Russian Oil 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA High Price Scenario from the Mid-1990s to 2020: How to PushOil Price Over $60 per Barrel 314\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA 2010–2034 Scenario: Subdued Global Oil Economy with Shale Gale and OPEC Supply Boost 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModified 2010–2034 Scenario: Subdued Global Oil Economy with Shale Gale and Punitive Saudi Supply Control 322\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2010–2034 Thought Experiment: Subdued Global Oil Economy with a Shale Gale and Mooted US Supply Control – The ‘Saudi America’ Hypothesis 324\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDevising New Scenarios 327\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEffect of Global Economy and Environment on Demand 327\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCartel Quota Bias 327\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpportunists’ Capacity Bias 328\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOil Price Bias 328\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapex Optimism 328\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTime to Build Trust in Russia (in Oil World 1995 and 2010) 329\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEndnote: A Brief History of the Oil Producers’ Project 329\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 331\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling 333\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUrban Dynamics – Growth and Stagnation in Cities 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUrban Model Conceptualisation 335\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care 340\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBackground 341\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedical Workforce Planning Model 342\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuality of Patient Care 346\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBase Run – Changing Composition of the Medical Workforce 348\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBase Run – Quality of Patient Care 350\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntangible Effects of the European Working Time Directive 351\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling Junior Doctor Morale 351\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverview of the Complete Model 353\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Formulation of Work–Life Balance and Flexibility 354\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulations of the Complete Model 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusions from the Medical Workforce Study 359\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy 361\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFisheries Management 361\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Simple Harvested Fishery – Balancing Catch and Fish Regeneration 363\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment – Coping with a Tipping Point 366\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulated Dynamics of a Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment 369\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eControl and Regulation – Policy Design for Sustainable Fisheries 371\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFormulation of Deployment Policy 373\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStock and Flow Equations for Ships at Sea, Ships in Harbour and Scrap Rate 375\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimulated Dynamics of a Regulated Fishery – The Base Case 375\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Design – A Higher Benchmark for Fish Density 379\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDynamics of a Weakly Regulated Fishery 381\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Design – Lower Exit Barriers Through Quicker Scrapping of Idle Ships 383\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSustainability, Regulation and Self-Restraint 387\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 387\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix – Alternative Simulation Approaches 388\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom Urban Dynamics to SimCity 389\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiscrete-event Simulation and System Dynamics 390\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusions on Alternative Approaches to Simulation Modelling 396\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 398\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning 403\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models 404\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModels of Business and Social Systems 406\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTests for Building Confidence in Models 407\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in Fast-moving Consumer Goods 410\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSoap Market Overview 410\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Modelling Project 411\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model 412\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBoundary Adequacy and Structure Verification Tests Applied to a Simple Soap Model 413\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Refined View of the Market 416\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBoundary Adequacy and Sector Map of the Complete Soap Industry Model 417\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManagerial Decision-making Processes in the Old English Bar Soap Company 419\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManagerial Decision-making Processes in Global Personal Care 420\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManagerial Decision-making Processes in Supermarkets 421\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEquation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model 422\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSubstitution of Bar Soap by Shower Gel 423\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBrand Switching Between Competing Bar Soap Products 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel Behaviour Tests and Fit to Data 428\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTests of Fit on Simulations of the Soap Industry Model – The Base Case 432\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTests of Learning from Simulation 436\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eComparing Simulations with Expectations and Interpreting Surprise Behaviour 436\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePartial Model Simulations to Examine Pet Theories and Misconceptions 437\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFamily Member Tests 438\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolicy Implication Tests 439\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnderstanding Competitive Dynamics in Fast-moving Consumer Goods 439\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary of Confidence Building Tests 441\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion – Model Fidelity and Usefulness 444\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEndnote: The Loops of Feedback 447\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 449\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Website Resources 451\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 452\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49406933598551,"sku":"9781118844687","price":55.05,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781118844687.jpg?v=1730497605","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/strategic-modelling-and-business-dynamics-website-9781118844687","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}