{"product_id":"risk-quantification-9780470019078","title":"Risk Quantification","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eThis book offers a practical answer for the non-mathematician to all the questions any businessman always wanted to ask about risk quantification, and never dare to ask.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnterprise-wide risk management (ERM) is a key issue for board of directors worldwide. Its proper implementation ensures transparent governance with all stakeholders' interests integrated into the strategic equation. Furthermore, Risk quantification is the cornerstone of effective risk management,at the strategic and tactical level, covering finance as well as ethics considerations. Both downside and upside risks (threats \u0026amp; opportunities) must be assessed to select the most efficient risk control measures and to set up efficient risk financing mechanisms. Only thus will an optimum return on capital and a reliable protection against bankruptcy be ensured, i.e. long term sustainable development.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWithin the ERM framework, each individual operational entity is called upon to control its own risks, w\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eForewords.\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Foundations.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management: principles and practice.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefinitions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSystematic and unsystematic risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInsurable risks.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExposure.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManagement.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management objectives.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOrganizational objectives.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther significant objectives.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management decision process.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 1–Diagnostic of exposures.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 2–Risk treatment.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStep 3–Audit and corrective actions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eState of the art and the trends in risk management.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk profile, risk map or risk matrix.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing and strategic financing.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom risk management to strategic risk management.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom managing property to managing reputation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom risk manager to chief risk officer.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy is risk quantification needed?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk quantification – a knowledge-based approach.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCausal structure of risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBuilding a quantitative causal model of risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExposure, frequency, and probability.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExposure, occurrence, and impact drivers.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eControlling exposure, occurrence, and impact.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eControllable, predictable, observable, and hidden drivers.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCost of decisions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management programme as an influence diagram.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling an individual risk or the risk management programme.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Tool Box.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProbability basics.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to probability theory.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConditional probabilities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndependence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBayes’ theorem.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRandom variables.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMoments of a random variable.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContinuous random variables.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMain probability distributions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction–the binomial distribution.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverview of usual distributions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFundamental theorems of probability theory.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEmpirical estimation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating probabilities from data.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFitting a distribution from data.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpert estimation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom data to knowledge.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating probabilities from expert knowledge.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating a distribution from expert knowledge.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying the causal structure of a domain.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBayesian networks and influence diagrams.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to the case.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to Bayesian networks.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNodes and variables.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProbabilities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDependencies.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInference.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLearning.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExtension to influence diagrams.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction to Monte Carlo simulation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroductory example: structured funds.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management example 1 – hedging weather risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDescription.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCollecting information.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManual scenario.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonte Carlo simulation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk management example 2– potential earthquake in cement industry.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnalysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModel.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonte Carlo simulation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA bit of theory.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefinition.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimation according to Monte Carlo simulation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRandom variable generation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariance reduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSoftware tools.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Knowledge Modelling Process.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreasing awareness of exposures and stakes.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eObjectives of risk assessment.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIssues in risk quantification.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk quantification: a knowledge management process.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe basel II framework for operational risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe three pillars.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOperational risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe basic indicator approach.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe sound practices paper.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe standardized approach.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe alternative standardized approach.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe advanced measurement approaches (AMA).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk mitigation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePartial use.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentification and mapping of loss exposures.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantification of loss exposures.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe candidate scenarios for quantitative risk assessment.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe exposure, occurrence, impact (XOI) model.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling and conditioning exposure at peril.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling and conditioning occurrence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConsistency of exposure and occurrence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvaluating the probability of occurrence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConditioning the probability of occurrence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling and conditioning impact.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefining the impact equation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefining the distributions of variables involved.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying drivers.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantifying a single scenario.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn example – “fat fingers” scenario.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling the exposure.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling the occurrence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling the impact.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative simulation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMerging scenarios.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eModelling the global distribution of losses.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Identifying Risk Control Drivers.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLoss control – a qualitative view.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLoss prevention (action on the causes).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEliminating the exposure.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReducing the probability of occurrence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLoss reduction (action on the consequences).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePre-event or passive reduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePost-event or active reduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn introduction to cindynics.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBasic concepts.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDysfunctions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGeneral principles and axioms.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePerspectives.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative example 1 – pandemic influenza.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe influenza pandemic risk model.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExposure.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOccurrence.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Bayesian network.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk control.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePre-exposition treatment (vaccination).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePost-exposition treatment (antiviral drug).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImplementation within a Bayesian network.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrategy comparison.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCumulated point of view.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiscussion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative example 2 – basel II operational risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe individual loss model.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnalysing the potential severe losses.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying the loss control actions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnalysing the cumulated impact of loss control actions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiscussion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative example 3 – enterprise-wide risk management.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContext and objectives.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk analysis and complex systems.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn alternative definition of risk.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRepresentation using Bayesian networks.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSelection of a time horizon.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentification of objectives.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentification of risks (events) and risk factors (context).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructuring the network.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentification of relationships (causal links or influences).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantification of the network.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExample of global enterprise risk representation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsage of the model for loss control.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk mapping.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImportance factors.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScenario analysis.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eApplication to the risk management of an industrial plant.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDescription of the system.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssessment of the external risks.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntegration of external risks in the global risk assessment.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsage of the model for risk management.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSummary – using quantitative models for risk control.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Risk Financing: The Right Cost of Risks.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing instruments.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRetention techniques.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCurrent treatment.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReserves.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCaptives (insurance or reinsurance).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTransfer techniques.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContractual transfer (for risk financing – to a noninsurer).\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePurchase of insurance cover.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHybrid techniques.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePools and closed mutual.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eClaims history-based premiums.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChoice of retention levels.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinancial reinsurance and finite risks.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProspective aggregate cover.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapital markets products for risk financing.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSecuritization.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInsurance derivatives.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContingent capital arrangements.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing and risk quantifying.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing quantitative models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExample 1: Satellite launcher.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExample 2: Defining a housing stock insurance programme.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA tentative general representation of financing methods.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk financing building blocks.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsual financing tools revisited.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCombining a risk model and a financing model.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eIndex.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49402257572183,"sku":"9780470019078","price":57.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780470019078.jpg?v=1730479857","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/risk-quantification-9780470019078","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}