{"product_id":"risk-modeling-assessment-and-management-4e-9781119017981","title":"Risk Modeling Assessment and Management 4e","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePresents systems-based theory, methodology, and applications in risk modeling, assessment, and management     This book examines risk analysis, focusing on quantifying risk and constructing probabilities for real-world decision-making, including engineering, design, technology, institutions, organizations, and policy.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003ePreface to the Fourth Edition ix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Companion Website xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I Fundamentals of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis 3\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 Introduction 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 Systems Engineering 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3 Risk Assessment and Management 14\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.4 Concept Road Map 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5 Epilogue 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 The Role of Modeling in the Definition and Quantification of the Risk Function 41\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 Introduction 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 The Risk Assessment and Management Process: Historical Perspectives 43\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 Information, Intelligence, and Models 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 The Building Blocks of Mathematical Models 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.5 On the Complex Definition of Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience: a Systems‐Based Approach 51\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.6 On the Definition of Vulnerabilities in Measuring Risks to Systems 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.7 On the Definition of Resilience in Measuring Risk to Systems 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.8 On the Complex Quantification of Risk to Systems 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Identifying Risk through Hierarchical Holographic Modeling and its Derivatives 69\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Hierarchical Aspects 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2 Hierarchical Overlapping Coordination 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3 HHM 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4 HHM and the Theory of Scenario Structuring 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5 Adaptive Multiplayer HHM Game 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6 Water Resources System 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7 Sustainable Development 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.8 HHM in a System Acquisition Project 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.9 Software Acquisition 90\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.10 Hardening the Water Supply Infrastructure 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.11 Risk Assessment and Management for Support of Operations other than War 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.12 Automated Highway System 103\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.13 Food‐Poisoning Scenarios 108\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Modeling and Decision Analysis 115\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Introduction 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Decision Rules Under Uncertainty 116\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Decision Trees 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 Decision Matrix 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 The Fractile Method 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.6 Triangular Distribution 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.7 Influence Diagrams 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.8 Population Dynamic Models 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.9 PSM 139\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.10 Example Problems 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Multiobjective Trade‐off Analysis 155\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Introduction 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Examples of Multiple Environmental Objectives 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 The Surrogate Worth Trade‐off Method 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4 Characterizing a Proper Noninferior Solution 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5 The SWT Method and the Utility Function Approach 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.6 Example Problems 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7 Summary 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 179\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Introduction 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Sensitivity, Responsivity, Stability, and Irreversibility 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Uncertainties Due to Errors in Modeling 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Characterization of Modeling Errors 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Uncertainty Taxonomy 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6 The USIM 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.7 Formulation of the Multiobjective Optimization Problem 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.8 A Robust Algorithm of the USIM 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.9 Integration of the USIM with Parameter Optimization at the Design Stage 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.10 Conclusions 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management 211\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Introduction 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Past Efforts in Risk Filtering and Ranking 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 RFRM: A Methodological Framework 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4 Case Study: An OOTW 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5 Summary 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II Advances in Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management 227\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of the Expected Value 229\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Introduction 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 Risk of Extreme Events 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 The Fallacy of the Expected Value 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 The PMRM 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5 General Formulation of the PMRM 236\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6 Summary of the Pmrm 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.7 Illustrative Example 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.8 Analysis of Dam Failure and Extreme Flood through the PMRM 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.9 Example Problems 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.10 Summary 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Multiobjective Decision‐tree Analysis 259\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Introduction 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Methodological Approach 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Differences between SODT and MODT 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Summary 281\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 Example Problems 282\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 293\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method 295\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction 295\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Impact Analysis 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 The Multiobjective, Multistage Impact Analysis Method: An Overview 297\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 Combining the PMRM and the MMIAM 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 Relating Multiobjective Decision Trees to the MRIAM 304\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6 Example Problems 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.7 Epilogue 325\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 326\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM 329\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 A Review of the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method 329\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Statistics of Extremes 333\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 Incorporating the Statistics of Extremes into the PMRM 338\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Sensitivity Analysis of the Approximation of f4(·) 344\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.5 Generalized Quantification of Risk of Extreme Events 350\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.6 Summary 356\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.7 Example Problems 357\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 368\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 Systems‐Based Guiding Principles for Risk Modeling, Planning, Assessment, Management, and\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cb\u003eCommunication 371\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1 Introduction 371\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2 The Journey: The Guiding Principles in the Broader Context of the Emerging Next Generation Developed by the Federal Aviation Administration  372\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 387\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 Fault Trees 389\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.1 Introduction 389\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2 Basic Fault-Tree Analysis 391\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3 Reliability and Fault-Tree Analysis 392\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4 Minimal Cut Sets 397\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5 The DARE Using Fault Trees 400\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.6 Extreme Events in Fault Tree Analysis 403\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.7 An Example Problem Based on a Case Study 405\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.8 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis and Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis 409\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.9 Event Trees 411\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.10 Example Problems 414\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 420\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e14 Multiobjective Statistical Method 423\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.1 Introduction 423\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2 Mathematical Formulation of the Interior Drainage Problem 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3 Formulation of the Optimization Problem 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4 The MSM: Step-by-Step 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5 The SWT Method 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.6 Multiple Objectives 428\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.7 Applying the MSM 429\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.8 Example Problems 432\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 438\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e15 Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management 439\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.1 Introduction 439\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2 Definitions and Principles of Project Risk Management 440\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3 Project Risk Management Methods 443\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.4 Aircraft Development Example 450\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.5 Quantitative Risk Assessment and Management of Software Acquisition 454\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.6 Critical Factors That Affect Software Nontechnical Risk 458\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.7 Basis for Variances in Cost Estimation 460\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.8 Discrete Dynamic Modeling 461\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.9 Summary 469\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 469\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e16 Modeling Complex Systems of Systems with Phantom System Models 473\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.1 Introduction 473\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2 What Have We Learned from Other Contributors? 474\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3 The Centrality of the States of the System in Modeling and in Risk Analysis 476\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4 The Centrality of Time in Modeling Multidimensional Risk, Uncertainty, and Benefits 477\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5 Extension of HHM to PSM 478\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.6 PSM and Meta-modeling 480\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.7 PSM Laboratory 486\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.8 Summary 488\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 489\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e17 Adaptive Two‐Player Hierarchical Holographic Modeling Game for Counterterrorism Intelligence\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cb\u003eAnalysis 493\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.1 Introduction 493\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2 Bayes’ Theorem 494\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3 Modeling the Multiple Perspectives of Complex Systems 495\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4 Adaptive Two‐Player Hhm Game: Terrorist Networks versus Homeland Protection 499\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.5 The Building Blocks of Mathematical Models and the Centrality of State Variables in Intelligence Analysis 502\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.6 Hierarchical Adaptive Two‐Player HHM Game 504\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.7 Collaborative Computing Support for Adaptive Two‐Player HHM Games 505\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.8 Summary 507\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 508\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e18 Inoperability Input–Output Model and Its Derivatives for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors 511\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.1 Overview 511\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2 Background: The Original Leontief Input–Output Model 512\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.3 Inoperability Input–Output Model 513\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4 Regimes of Recovery 516\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.5 Supporting Databases for IIM Analysis 517\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.6 National and Regional Databases for IIM Analysis 518\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.7 RIMS II 522\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.8 Development of the IIM and its Extensions 523\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.9 The Dynamic IIM 527\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.10 Practical Uses of the IIM 530\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.11 Uncertainty IIM 533\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.12 Example Problems 536\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.13 Summary 539\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 540\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e19 Case Studies 543\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.1 A Risk‐Based Input–Output Methodology for Measuring the Effects of the August 2003 Northeast Blackout  543\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.2 Systemic Valuation of Strategic Preparedness Through Applying the IIM with Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina 558\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.3 Ex Post Analysis Using the IIM of the September 11, 2001, Attack on the United States 569\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.4 Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management of Lahar Flow Threat 575\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.5 The Statistics of Extreme Events and 6‐Sigma Capability 587\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e19.6 Sequential Pareto‐Optimal Decisions Made During Emergent Complex Systems of Systems: An Application to the Faa Nextgen 593\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 612\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix: Optimization Techniques 617\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 Introduction to Modeling and Optimization 617\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2 Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of Chemical Carcinogenicity 655\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3 The Farmer’s Dilemma: Linear Model and Duality 657\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4 Standard Normal Probability Table 664\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 665\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAuthor Index 667\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSubject Index 673\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley-Blackwell","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":53515637784919,"sku":"9781119017981","price":125.06,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/risk-modeling-assessment-and-management-4e-9781119017981","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}