{"product_id":"risk-assessment-of-power-systems-9781118686706","title":"Risk Assessment of Power Systems","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eExtended models, methods, and applications in power system risk assessment\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003eRisk Assessment of Power Systems: Models, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition\u003c\/i\u003e fills the gap between risk theory and real-world application. Author Wenyuan Li is a leading authority on power system risk and has more than twenty-five years of experience in risk evaluation. This book offers real-world examples to help readers learn to evaluate power system risk during planning, design, operations, and maintenance activities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome of the new additions in the \u003ci\u003eSecond Edition\u003c\/i\u003e include:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eNew research and applied achievements in power system risk assessment\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eA discussion of correlation models in risk evaluation\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eHow to apply risk assessment to renewable energy sources and smart grids\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eAsset management based on condition monitoring and risk evaluation\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eVoltage instability risk assessment and its application to system planning\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003ePreface xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface to the First Edition xxi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 Introduction 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 Risk in Power Systems 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2.1 System Risk Evaluation 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2.2 Data in Risk Evaluation 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2.3 Unit Interruption Cost 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3 Outline of the Book 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Outage Models of System Components 15\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 Introduction 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Models of Independent Outages 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.1 Repairable Forced Failure 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.2 Aging Failure 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.3 Nonrepairable Chance Failure 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.4 Planned Outage 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.5 Semiforced Outage 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.6 Partial Failure Mode 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.7 Multiple Failure Mode 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 Models of Dependent Outages 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.1 Common-Cause Outage 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.2 Component-Group Outage 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.3 Station-Originated Outage 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.4 Cascading Outage 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3.5 Environment-Dependent Failure 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 Conclusions 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models 45\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Introduction 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2 Point Estimation on Mean and Variance of Failure Data 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2.1 Sample Mean 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2.2 Sample Variance 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3 Interval Estimation on Mean and Variance of Failure Data 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.1 General Concept of Confidence Interval 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.2 Confidence Interval of Mean 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.3 Confidence Interval of Variance 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4.1 Point Estimation 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4.2 Interval Estimation 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and its Test 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6.1 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data 58\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6.2 Test of Experimental Distribution 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7.1 Mean Life and its Standard Deviation in the Normal Model 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7.2 Shape and Scale Parameters in the Weibull Model 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7.3 Example 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.8 Conclusions 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods 73\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Introduction 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Methods for Simple Systems 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.1 Probability Convolution 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.2 Series and Parallel Networks 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.3 Minimum Cutsets 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.4 Markov Equations 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.5 Frequency-Duration Approaches 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Methods for Complex Systems 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.1 State Enumeration 84\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.2 Nonsequential Monte Carlo Simulation 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.3 Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 Correlation Models in Risk Evaluation 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.1 Correlation Measures 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.2 Correlation Matrix Methods 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4.3 Copula Functions 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 Conclusions 102\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems 105\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Introduction 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Techniques Used in Generation-Demand Systems 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.1 Convolution Technique 106\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.2 State Sampling Method 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2.3 State Duration Sampling Method 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3.1 Analytical Technique 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3.2 State Duration Sampling Method 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4.1 Failure Modes and Modeling 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4.2 Connectivity Identification 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4.3 Stratified State Enumeration Method 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4.4 State Duration Sampling Method 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.1 Basic Procedure 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.2 Component Failure Models 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.3 Load Curve Models 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.4 Contingency Analysis 133\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.5 Optimization Models for Load Curtailments 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.6 State Enumeration Method 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5.7 State Sampling Method 139\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.6 Conclusions 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning 143\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Introduction 143\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Concept of Probabilistic Planning 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.1 Basic Procedure 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.2 Cost Analysis 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.3 Present Value 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Risk Evaluation Approach 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.1 Risk Evaluation Procedure 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.2 Risk Cost Model 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Example 1: Selecting the Lowest-Cost Planning Alternative 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.1 System Description 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.2 Planning Alternatives 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.3 Risk Evaluation 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.4 Overall Economic Analysis 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4.5 Summary 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Example 2: Applying Different Planning Criteria 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.1 System and Planning Alternatives 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.2 Study Conditions and Data 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.3 Risk and Risk Cost Evaluation 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.4 Overall Economic Analysis 163\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5.5 Summary 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6 Conclusions 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning 169\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Introduction 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Concept of Risk Evaluation in Operation Planning 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 Risk Evaluation Method 173\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4 Example 1: Determining the Lowest-Risk Operation Mode 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.1 System and Study Conditions 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.2 Assessing Impacts of Load Transfer 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.3 Comparing Different Reconfigurations 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.4 Selecting Operation Mode under the \u003ci\u003eN\u003c\/i\u003e−2 Condition 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.5 Summary 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5 Example 2: A Simple Case by Hand Calculation 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.1 Basic Concept 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.2 Case Description 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.3 Study Conditions and Data 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.4 Risk Evaluation 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5.5 Summary 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6 Conclusions 188\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Application of Risk Evaluation to Generation Source Planning 191\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Introduction 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 Procedure of Reliability Planning 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 Simulation of Generation and Risk Costs 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.1 Simulation Approach 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.2 Minimization Cost Model 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3.3 Expected Generation and Risk Costs 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 Example 1: Selecting Location and Size of Cogenerators 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.1 Basic Concept 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.2 System and Cogeneration Candidates 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.3 Risk Sensitivity Analysis 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.4 Maximum Benefit Analysis 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4.5 Summary 205\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant 205\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5.1 Case Description 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5.2 Risk Evaluation 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5.3 Total Cost Analysis 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5.4 Summary 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6 Conclusions 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Application of Risk Evaluation to Selecting Substation Configurations 211\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Introduction 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Load Curtailment Model 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.1 Component Failure Models 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.2 Procedure of Risk Evaluation 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.3 Economic Analysis Method 216\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.1 Two Substation Configurations 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.2 Risk Evaluation 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.3 Economic Analysis 222\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.4 Summary 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 Example 2: Evaluating Effects of Substation Configuration Changes 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.1 Simplified Model for Evaluating Substation Configurations 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.2 Problem Description 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.3 Risk Evaluation 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5.4 Summary 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6 Example 3: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6.1 Description of Two Options 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6.2 Risk Evaluation and Economic Analysis 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6.3 Summary 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.7 Conclusions 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Application of Risk Evaluation to Renewable Energy Systems 235 \u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Risk Evaluation of Wind Turbine Power Converter System (WTPCS) 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.1 Basic Concepts 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.2 Power Losses and Temperatures of WTPCS Components 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.3 Risk Evaluation of WTPCS 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.4 Case Study 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2.5 Summary 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 Risk Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Systems 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.1 Two Basic Structures of Photovoltaic Power Systems 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.2 Risk Parameters of Photovoltaic Inverters 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.3 Risk Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power System 258\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.4 Case Study 263\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.5 Summary 270\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 Conclusions 272\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Application of Risk Evaluation to Composite Systems with Renewable Sources 275\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Introduction 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Risk Assessment of a Composite System with Wind Farms and Solar Power Stations 276\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.1 Probability Models of Renewable Sources and Bus Load Curves 276\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.2 Multiple Correlations among Renewable Sources and Bus\/Regional Loads 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.3 Risk Assessment Considering Multiple Correlations 282\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.4 Case Study 283\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.5 Summary 295\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 Determination of Transfer Capability Required by Wind Generation 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.1 System, Conditions, and Method 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.2 Wind Generation Model 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.3 Equivalence of Wind Power in Generation Systems 299\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.4 Transfer Capability Required by Wind Generation 303\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3.5 Summary 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Conclusions 310\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 Risk Evaluation of Wide Area Measurement and Control System 313\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1 Introduction 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2 Hierarchical Structure and Failure Analysis of WAMCS 314\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2.1 Hierarchical Structure of WAMCS 314\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2.2 Failure Analysis Technique for WAMCS 315\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3 Risk Evaluation of Phasor Measurement Units 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3.1 Markov State Models of PMU Modules 317\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3.2 Equivalent Two-State Model of PMU 324\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4 Risk Evaluation of Regional Communication Networks in WAMCS 325\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.1 Classification of Regional Communication Networks 325\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.2 Survival Mechanisms of Regional Networks 328\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.3 Risk Evaluation in Two Survival Mechanisms 329\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4.4 Equivalent Two-State Model of a Regional Communication Network 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5 Risk Evaluation of Backbone Network in WAMCS 335\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5.1 Equivalent Risk Model of Backbone Communication Network 336\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5.2 Risk Evaluation of Optic Fiber System 337\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6 Numerical Results 343\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6.1 Risk Indices of PMU 343\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6.2 Risk Indices of Regional Communication Networks 345\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6.3 Risk Indices of the Backbone Communication Network 347\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6.4 Risk Indices of Overall WAMCS 348\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.7 Conclusions 349\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 Reliability-Centered Maintenance 351\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.1 Introduction 351\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2 Basic Tasks in RCM 352\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2.1 Comparison between Maintenance Alternatives 352\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2.2 Lowest-Risk Maintenance Scheduling 353\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2.3 Predictive Maintenance versus Corrective Maintenance 353\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2.4 Ranking Importance of Components 354\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3.1 Procedure of Transmission Maintenance Planning 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3.2 Description of the System and Maintenance Outage 357\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3.3 The Lowest-Risk Schedule of the Cable Replacement 358\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3.4 Summary 359\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance 360\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4.1 Problem Description 360\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4.2 Procedure 361\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4.3 Case Study and Results 362\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.4.4 Summary 363\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations 363\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5.1 Case Description 363\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5.2 Study Conditions and Data 365\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5.3 EENS Evaluation 365\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.5.4 Summary 367\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.6 Conclusions 367\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e14 Probabilistic Spare-Equipment Analysis 369\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.1 Introduction 369\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2 Spare-Equipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria 370\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2.1 Unavailability of Components 370\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.2.2 Group Reliability and Spare-Equipment Analysis 372\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3 Spare-Equipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method 373\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.1 Failure Cost Model 373\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.2 Unit Failure Cost Estimation 374\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.3 Annual Investment Cost Model 375\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.4 Present Value Approach 375\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.3.5 Procedure of Spare-Equipment Analysis 376\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers 376\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.1 Transformer Group and Data 376\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.2 Spare-Transformer Analysis Based on Group Failure Probability 377\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.3 Spare-Transformer Plans Based on the Probabilistic Cost Model 378\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.4.4 Summary 381\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors 381\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.1 Problem Description 381\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.2 Study Conditions and Data 383\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.3 Redundancy Analysis 385\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.5.4 Summary 387\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14.6 Conclusions 387\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e15 Asset Management Based on Condition Monitoring and Risk Evaluation 389\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.1 Introduction 389\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2 Maintenance Strategy of Overhead Lines 390\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.1 Risk Evaluation Using Condition Monitoring Data 391\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.2 Overhead Line Maintenance Strategy 397\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.3 Case Study 399\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.2.4 Summary 401\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3 Replacement Strategy for Aged Transformers 402\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.1 Transformer Aging Failure Unavailability Using Condition Monitoring Data 403\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.2 Transformer Replacement Strategy 407\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.3 Case Study 410\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.3.4 Summary 413\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15.4 Conclusions 414\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e16 Reliability-Based Transmission-Service Pricing 417\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.1 Introduction 417\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2 Basic Concept 418\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.1 Incremental Reliability Value 419\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.2 Impacts of Customers on System Reliability 420\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.2.3 Reliability Component in Price Design 421\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3 Calculation Methods 422\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.1 Unit Incremental Reliability Value 422\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.2 Generation Credit for Reliability Improvement 423\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.3 Load Charge for Reliability Degradation 423\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.3.4 Load Charge Rate Due to Generation Credit 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4 Rate Design 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4.1 Charge Rate for Wheeling Customers 424\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4.2 Charge Rate for Native Customers 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.4.3 Credit to Generation Customers 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5 Application Example 425\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.1 Calculation of the UIRV 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.2 Calculation of the GCRI 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.3 Calculation of the LCRD 427\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.4 Calculation of the LCRGC 428\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.5.5 Calculations of Charge Rates 428\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.6 Conclusions 430\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e17 Voltage Instability Risk Assessment and its Application to System Planning 431\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.1 Introduction 431\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2 Method of Assessing Voltage Instability Risk 432\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.1 Maximum Loadability Model for System States 432\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.2 Models for Identifying Weak Branches and Buses 436\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.3 Determination of Contingency System States 443\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.2.4 Procedure of Calculating Voltage Instability Risk Indices 444\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.3 Tracing and Locating Voltage Instability Risk for Planning Alternatives 447\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4 Case Studies 448\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.1 Results of the IEEE 14-Bus System 448\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.4.2 Results of the 171-Bus Utility System 453\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17.5 Conclusions 456\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e18 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment 459\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.1 Introduction 459\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods 460\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2.1 Selection of Pre-Fault System States 460\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2.2 Fault Models 461\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2.3 Monte Carlo Simulation of Fault Events 463\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.2.4 Transient Stability Simulation 464\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.3 Procedure 464\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.3.1 Procedure for the First Type of Study 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.3.2 Procedure for the Second Type of Study 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4 Examples 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4.1 System Description and Data 465\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4.2 Transfer Limit Calculation in the Columbia River System 470\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4.3 Generation Rejection Requirement in the Peace River System 472\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.4.4 Summary 475\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18.5 Conclusions 475\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix A Basic Probability Concepts 477\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1 Probability Calculation Rules 477\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1.1 Intersection 477\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1.2 Union 477\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.1.3 Full Conditional Probability 478\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.2 Random Variable and its Distribution 478\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation 479\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.1 Exponential Distribution 479\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.2 Normal Distribution 479\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.3 Log-Normal Distribution 481\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.4 Weibull Distribution 481\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.5 Gamma Distribution 482\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.3.6 Beta Distribution 483\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4 Numerical Characteristics 483\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4.1 Mathematical Expectation 483\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4.2 Variance and Standard Deviation 484\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.4.3 Covariance and Correlation Coefficients 484\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.5 Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimator 485\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.5.1 Basic Concept 485\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA.5.2 Determination of the Bandwidth 486\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation 489\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.1 General Concept 489\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.2 Random Number Generators 490\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.2.1 Multiplicative Congruent Generator 490\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.2.2 Mixed Congruent Generator 491\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates 491\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation 492\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.1 Exponential Distribution Random Variate 492\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.2 Normal Distribution Random Variate 493\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.3 Log-Normal Distribution Random Variate 494\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.4 Weibull Distribution Random Variate 494\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.5 Gamma Distribution Random Variate 495\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eB.4.6 Beta Distribution Random Variate 495\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix C Power Flow Models 497\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.1 AC Power Flow Models 497\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.1.1 Power Flow Equations 497\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.1.2 Newton–Raphson Method 497\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.1.3 Fast Decoupled Method 498\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.2 DC Power Flow Models 499\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.2.1 Basic Equation 499\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eC.2.2 Line Flow Equation 500\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix D Optimization Algorithms 503\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming 503\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.1.1 Primal Simplex Method 503\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.1.2 Dual Simplex Method 505\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming 506\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.2.1 Optimality and Feasibility Conditions 506\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eD.2.2 Procedure of the Algorithm 508\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eAppendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables 511\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 515\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading 523\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 525\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49406905057623,"sku":"9781118686706","price":109.76,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781118686706.jpg?v=1730497509","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/risk-assessment-of-power-systems-9781118686706","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}