{"product_id":"project-risk-management-9781118482438","title":"Project Risk Management","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eAn easy to implement, practical, and proven risk management methodology for project managers and decision makers\u003c\/b\u003e \u003cp\u003eDrawing from the author''s work with several major and mega capital projects for Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, TransAlta, Access Pipeline, MEG Energy, and SNC-Lavalin, \u003ci\u003eProject Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers\u003c\/i\u003e reveals how to implement a consistent application of risk methods, including probabilistic methods. It is based on proven training materials, models, and tools developed by the author to make risk management plans accessible and easily implemented.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eWritten by an experienced risk management professional\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eReveals essential risk management methods for project teams and decision makers\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003ePacked with training materials, models, and tools for project management professionals\u003c\/li\u003e \u003c\/ul\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Management has been identified as one of the nine content areas for Project Management P\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eForeword xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xxix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I: Fundamental Uncertainty of a Project Outcome\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1: Nature of Project Uncertainties 3\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePhases of Project Development and Project Objectives 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuest for Predictability of Project Outcome 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSources and Types of Deviations from Project Objectives 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKey Objects of Risk (or Uncertainty) Management: Do We Really \u003ci\u003eKnow \u003c\/i\u003eWhat We Try to Manage? 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUncertainty Exposure Changers 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2: Main Components of a Risk Management System 29\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Management Plan 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOrganizational Framework 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Management Process 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Management Tools 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3: Adequacy of Methods to Assess Project Uncertainties 61\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReview of Deterministic Qualitative (Scoring) Methods 62\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReview of Deterministic Quantitative Methods 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReview of Probabilistic Qualitative Methods 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReview of Probabilistic Quantitative Methods 80\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II: Deterministic Methods\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4: Uncertainty Identification 91\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen Risk Management Becomes Boring 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThree Dimensions of Risk Management and Uncertainty Identification 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Identification Workshops 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSources of Uncertainties and Risk Breakdown Structure 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBowtie Diagrams for Uncertainty Identification 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThree-Part Uncertainty Naming 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRole of Bias in Uncertainty Identification 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRoom for Unknown Unknowns 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5: Risk Assessment and Addressing 119\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeveloping a Risk Assessment Matrix 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing a Risk Assessment Matrix for Assessment As-Is 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFive Addressing Strategies 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAssessment after Addressing 141\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProject Execution through Risk Addressing (PETRA) 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRole of Bias in Uncertainty Assessment 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6: Response Implementation and Monitoring 151\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMerging Risk Management with Team Work Plans 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonitor and Appraise 153\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen Uncertainties Should Be Closed 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhen Should Residual Uncertainties Be Accepted? 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote 156\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7: Risk Management Governance and Organizational Context 157\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Management Deliverables for Decision Gates 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOwnership of Uncertainties and Addressing Actions 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eManagement of Supercritical Risks 162\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Reviews and Reporting 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBias and Organizational Context 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8: Risk Management Tools 177\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThree Dimensions of Risk Management and Structure of the Uncertainty Repository 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRisk Database Software Packages 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDetailed Design of a Risk Register Template in MS Excel 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Tools for Probabilistic Risk Analyses 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 191\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9: Risk-Based Selection of Engineering Design Options 193\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCriteria for Engineering Design Option Selection 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScoring Risk Method for Engineering Design Option Selection 195\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDecision Tree for Engineering Design Option Selection (Controlled Options) 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10: Addressing Uncertainties through Procurement 203\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSources of Procurement Risks 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative Bid Evaluation 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePackage Risk Management Post-Award 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11: Cost Escalation Modeling 211\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverview of the Cost Escalation Approach 211\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExample of Cost Escalation Modeling 219\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSelecting the Right Time to Purchase 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 224\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III: Probabilistic Monte Carlo Methods\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 12: Applications of Monte Carlo Methods in Project Risk Management 227\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFeatures, Value, and Power of Monte Carlo Methods 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntegration of Deterministic and Probabilistic Assessment Methods 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUncertainty Objects Influencing Outcome of Probabilistic Analyses 231\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOrigin and Nature of Uncertainties 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRole of Correlations in Cost and Schedule Risk Analyses 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProject Cost Reserve 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProject Schedule Reserve 244\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnatomy of Input Distributions 246\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProbabilistic Branching 250\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMerge Bias as an Additional Reason Why Projects Are Often Late 251\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntegrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis 253\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncluding Unknown-Unknown Allowance in Probabilistic Models 256\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13: Preparations for Probabilistic Analysis 261\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTypical Workflows of Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analyses 262\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePlanning Monte Carlo Analysis 264\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBaselines and Development of Proxies 267\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Using Proxies is the Right Method 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMapping of Uncertain Events 272\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBuilding and Running Monte Carlo Models 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 278\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 14: Using Outputs of Monte Carlo Analyses in Decision Making 279\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnatomy of Output Distributions 280\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverall Project Uncertainty and Confidence Levels of Baselines 283\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProject Reserve Criteria 287\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUncertainty of Cost Outcome and Classes of Base Estimates 291\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCost Reserve Drawdown 296\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSensitivity Analysis 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUsing What-if Scenarios for Advanced Sensitivity Analysis 304\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAre We Ready for Construction, Logistics, or Turnaround Windows? 305\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValidating Results and Closing Probabilistic Analysis 306\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 308\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 308\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart IV: Risk Management Case Study: Project Curiosity\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 15: Putting Together the Project Curiosity Case Study 311\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScope of the Case Study 312\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProject Curiosity Baselines 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProject Risk Management System Adopted by Project Curiosity 319\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOverview of Project Uncertainty Exposure of Project Curiosity 326\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTemplates for Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Analyses 330\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBuilding and Running Project Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Models 331\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThree What-If Scenarios 333\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 334\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 335\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 16: Decision Making 337\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eKey Points of the Probabilistic Analysis Report 338\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDecision Gate Review Board Findings and Recommendations 350\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 352\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote 353\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author 355\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 357\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Wiley","offers":[{"title":"Default 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