{"product_id":"probably-not-9781119518105","title":"Probably Not","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eA revised edition that explores random numbers, probability, and statistical inference at an introductory mathematical level\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWritten in an engaging and entertaining manner, the revised and updated second edition of \u003ci\u003eProbably Not \u003c\/i\u003econtinues to offer an informative guide to probability and prediction. The expanded second edition contains problem and solution sets. In addition, the book's illustrative examples reveal how we are living in a statistical world, what we can expect, what we really know based upon the information at hand and explains when we only \u003ci\u003ethink \u003c\/i\u003ewe know something.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe author introduces the principles of probability and explains probability distribution functions. The book covers combined and conditional probabilities and contains a new section on Bayes Theorem and Bayesian Statistics, which features some simple examples including the Presecutor's Paradox, and Bayesian vs. Frequentist thinking about statistics. New to this edition is a \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout The Companion Site\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 An Introduction to Probability\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePredicting The Future\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRule Making\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRandom Events and Probability\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Lottery\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCoin Flipping\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Coin Flip Strategy That Can’t Lose\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Prize Behind The Door\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Checker Board\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eComments\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 Probability Distribution Functions and Some Math Basics\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Probability Distribution Function\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAverages and Weighted Averages\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExpected Values\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Basic Coin Flip Game\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePDF Symmetry\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStandard Deviation\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCumulative Distribution Function\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Confidence Interval\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFinal Points\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRehash and Histograms\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Building A Bell\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Random Walks\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe One-Dimensional Random Walk\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome Subsequent Calculations\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiffusion\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Life Insurance\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLife Insurance\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInsurance As Gambling\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLife Tables\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBirth Rates and Population Stability\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLife Tables, Again\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePremiums\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSocial Security – Sooner Or Later?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 The Binomial Theorem\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Binomial Probability Formula\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePermutations and Combinations\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLarge Number Approximations\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Poisson Distribution\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDisease Clusters\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eClusters\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte -Carlo Simulations\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRandom Numbers and Simulations\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePseudo-Random Numbers\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Middle Square PRNG\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Linear Congruential PRNG\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Normal Distribution Generator\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Arbitrary Distribution Generator\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonte Carlo Simulations\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA League of Our Own\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiscussion\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Some Gambling Games In Detail\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Basic Coin Flip Game\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe “Ultimate Winning Strategy”\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eParimutuel Betting\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Gantt Chart and A Hint of Another Approach\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 Scheduling and Waiting\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eScheduling Appointments In The Doctor’s Office\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLunch with A Friend\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWaiting for A Bus\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Combined and Conditional Probabilities\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFunctional Notation (Again)\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConditional Probability\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMedical Test Results\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Shared Birthday Problem\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Bayesian Statistics\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBayes Theorem\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMultiple Possibilities\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWill Monty Hall Ever Go Away?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePhilosophy\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Prosecutor’s Fallacy\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContinuous Functions\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredible Intervals\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGantt Charts (Again)\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 Estimation Problems\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Number of Locomotives Problem\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNumber of Locomotives, Improved Estimate\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDecision Making\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Light House Problem\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Likelihood Function\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Light House Problem II\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 Two Paradoxes\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eParrondo’s Paradox\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnother Parrondo Game\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Parrondo Ratchet\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSimpson’s Paradox\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e14 Benford’s Law\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHistory\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe 1\/x Distribution\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGoodness of Fit Measure\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSmith’s Analysis\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e15 Networks, Infectious Diseases and Chain Letters\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDegrees of Separation\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePropagation Along The Networks\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome Other Networks\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNeighborhood Chains\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChain Letters\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eComments\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e16 Introduction To Frequentist Statistical Inference\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSampling\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSample Distributions and Standard Deviations\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating Population Average From A Sample\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Student-T Distribution\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePolling Statistics\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDid A Sample Come From A Given Distribution?\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Little Reconciliation\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrelation and Causality\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrelation Coefficient\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegression Lines\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRegression To The Mean\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e17 Statistical Mechanics and Thermodynamics\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistical Mechanics\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e(Concepts of) Thermodynamics\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e18 Chaos and Quanta\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChaos\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProbability In Quantum Mechanic\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eContinuous Distributions and Integrals\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExponential Functions\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48866400665943,"sku":"9781119518105","price":74.66,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781119518105.jpg?v=1722278468","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/probably-not-9781119518105","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}