{"product_id":"playing-against-nature-9781118620823","title":"Playing against Nature","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eDefending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when  as occurred in L'Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California  there is a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mi\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“That Rumsfeld’s pithy and precise summary of the nature of uncertainty in policymaking is often cited as opaque and obscurant shows more than anything the need for a book like this.”  (\u003ci\u003eSurvival Global Politics \u0026amp; Strategy, \u003c\/i\u003e 1 February 2015)\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePreface xi  \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xiv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote on Further Reading and Sources xvi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Companion Website xviii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e1 A Tricky, High-Stakes Game 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 Where We Are Today 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 What We Need to Do Better 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3 How Can We Do Better? 14\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 19\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e2 When Nature Won 22\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 The Best-Laid Plans 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Why Hazard Assessment Went Wrong 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 How Mitigation Fared 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 The Challenges Ahead 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e3 Nature Bats Last 38\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Prediction Is Hard 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2 Forecasts, Predictions, and Warnings 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3 Earthquake Prediction 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4 Chaos 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 54\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e4 Uncertainty and Probability 57\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Basic Ideas 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Compound Events 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 The Gaussian Distribution 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 Probability vs Statistics 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 Shallow and Deep Uncertainties 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e5 Communicating What We Know and What We Don’t 75\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Recognizing and Admitting Uncertainties 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Precision and Accuracy 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 Testing Forecasts 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4 Communicating Forecasts 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e6 Human Disasters 97\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Assessing Hazards 97\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Vulnerability and Interconnections 99\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 The 2008 US Financial Disaster 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Pseudodisasters and Groupthink 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Disaster Chic 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e7 How Much Is Enough? 115\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Rational Policy Making 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Lessons from National Defense 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 Making Choices 122\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5 Present and Future Value 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6 Valuing Lives 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.7 Implications for Natural Hazard Mitigation 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 135Contents ix\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e8 Guessing the Odds 136\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Big Events Are Rare 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 Time-Independent Probability Models 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 Time-Dependent Probability Models 145\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 149\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e9 When’s the Next Earthquake? 151\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 A Very Tough Problem 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Relation 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Earthquake Cycle Model 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Computing Earthquake Probabilities 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 Shaky Probabilities 170\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e10 Assessing Hazards 176\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Five Tough Questions 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Uncertainties 177\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 How Is the Hazard Defi ned? 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 Where Will Large Earthquakes Occur? 182\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 When Will Large Earthquakes Occur? 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6 How Big Will the Large Earthquakes Be? 190\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.7 How Much Shaking? 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.8 Dealing With the Uncertainties 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.9 Next Steps 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 201\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e11 Mitigating Hazards 204\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Approaches 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Accepting Risk 205\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 Transferring Risk 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 Avoiding Risk 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.5 Mitigating Risk 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.6 Combined Strategies 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e12 Choosing Mitigation Policies 220\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.1 Making Choices 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.2 House Fire Mitigation 223\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.3 Losses from Hazards 227\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.4 Optimal Natural Hazard Mitigation 228\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.5 Nonoptimal Natural Hazard Mitigation 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.6 Mitigation Given Uncertainties 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12.7 Robust Policy Making 235\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 238\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 240\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003e13 Doing Better 241\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.1 Final Thoughts 241\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.2 Community Decision Making 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13.3 Improved Organization 244\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuestions 248\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading and Sources 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 251\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49528833376599,"sku":"9781118620823","price":53.95,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781118620823.jpg?v=1731873200","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/playing-against-nature-9781118620823","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}