{"product_id":"perception-and-misperception-in-international-politics-9780691177434","title":"Perception and Misperception in International","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSince its original publication in 1976, Perception and Misperception in International Politics has become a landmark book in its field, hailed by the New York Times as the seminal statement of principles underlying political psychology. This new edition includes an extensive preface by the author reflecting on the book's lasting impact and legacy\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"The best statement of the psychological position in the literature on international politics. Highly readable, informative, and thought-provoking.\"--Library Journal \"This exceptional book is a landmark in the study of cognitive processes in government foreign policy decision making. It integrates a thorough grasp of major psychological theory and research concerning individual cognitive processes with a detailed and perceptive reading of numerous historical accounts of international politics.\"--Contemporary Psychology \"A valuable contribution to the theoretical literature on international relations.\"--Choice\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION xiii  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xci  INTRODUCTION 3  I The Setting   1   Perception and the Level of Analysis Problem 13  Do Perceptions Matter? 13  The International Environment 18  Compulsion in Extreme Circumstances? 19  Domestic Determinants 21  The Bureaucracy 24   Perceptions, Reality, and a Two-Step Model 28  2   External Stimuli, Internal Processes, and Intentions 32   Introduction 32   External versus Internal Sources of Behavior 35   Intentions 48   Inaccurate Predictions about One's Own Behavior 54   3   Deterrence, the Spiral Model, and Intentions of the Adversary 58   Two Views of International Relations and the Cold War 58   Deterrence 58   The Spiral Model 62   Psychological Dynamics 67   Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and Problems with Incrementalism 76   Self-Defeating Power 78   Prescriptions 82   Universal Generalizations? 84   Evidence against the Spiral Model 84   Evidence against Deterrence 90   Deterrence and World War II; Spiral Model and World War I 94   When Will Force and Threats Work? The Decision-Maker's Choice 96   When Will Force and Threats Work? Hypotheses 100   Perceptions of Intention and Analyses of What ls at Stake 102   Other Explanations for the Differences between the Spiral and Deterrence Theories 107   Differences in Values 108   Claims for a Dominant Strategy 109   Dangers of Applying Gradualism to an Aggressive Adversary 110   Suggestions 111   II Processes of Perception   4   Cognitive Consistency and the Interaction between Theory and Data 117  Consistency: Rational and Irrational 117   Rational Consistency 119   Cognitive-Affective Balance 120   Source-Message Interaction 122   Implications 124   Irrational Consistency-Avoidance of Value Trade-Offs 128   Assimilation of Information to Pre-existing Beliefs 143   The Impact of Expectations on Perceptions 145   The Necessary Interdependence of Facts and Theories 154   The Interdependence between Facts and Theories in Science 156   The Impact of Categorization 162   Different Theories, Different Perceptions 163   The Emergence of New Theories and Images 165   Cognitive Distortion and Implications for Decision-Making 172   Failure to Recognize the Influence of Pre-Existing Beliefs 181   Excessive and Premature Cognitive Closure 187   Implications for Decision-Making 191   Confidence, Commitment, and Ambiguity 195   Implications for Decision-Making 201   5   The Impact of the Evoked Set 203   Evoked Set in the Absence of Communication 203   Communication and Estimating the Evoked Set of the Other 205   Misunderstandings within a Government: Differences in Information, Perspectives, and Time Lags 206   Uneven Distribution of Information within Governments 209   Differences in Evoked Set Caused by Differences in Concerns 211   Conclusions 215   6   How Decision-Makers Learn from History 217  Introduction 217  Lessons as Predispositions 222  Alternative Explanations 225  The Learning Process 227  Organizational Learning 238  Events from Which People Learn Most 239  Firsthand Experiences 239  Some Consequences 243  Alternative Explanations 246  Early Experiences and Generational Effects 249  Generational Effects 253  Alternative Explanations 257  Delayed Impact on Policy 260  Events Important to the Person's State or Organization 262  Revolutions 262  The Last War 266  Range of Available Alternative Analogies 270  What Lessons Do People Learn? 271  Impact of Constant Factors 271  Lessons about Specific Actors 274  Reactions to Failure 275  Nothing Fails like Success 278   Alternative Explanations 219   Summary 281   Appendix: The Impact of Domestic Politics and Training on Perceptual Predispositions 283   Learning from Domestic Politics 283   Training 287   7   Attitude Change 288   Introduction 288   Mechanisms of Attitude Preservation and Change 291   Centrality 297   The Rate at Which Discrepant Information Is Received 308   Beliefs Especially Resistant to Discrepant Information 310   III Common Misperceptions   8   Perceptions of Centralization 319   Unity and Planning 319   Plans, Not Accidents and Confusion 321   One Actor, Not Several 323   Special Cases 326   Variables Encouraging the Perception of Unity and Planning 327   Being Misinformed about One's Own Behavior 329   Misinformation about Physical Effects 331   Disobedience by Agents 332   Causes of Disobedience 332   Types of Disobedience 333   Consequences of Lack of Awareness of Agents' Behavior 334   Consequences of Perceptions of Unity and Planning 338   9   Overestimating One's Importance as Influence or Target 343   Introduction 343   Overestimating One's Effectiveness 344   Perceptions of Influence and Turning Points 348   Injury and Perceptions of the Other's Autonomy 349   Belief that the Other Understands that You Are Not a Threat 354  10   The Influence of Desires and Fears on Perceptions 356   Wishful Thinking 356   Experiments: Lack of Incentives for Accuracy 357   Desires or Expectations? 359   Direct Impact of Affect 361   Experimental Manipulation of Affect 361   Judgments of Desirability and Probability 362   Other Experiments 363   Wishful Thinking in International Relations 365   Perceptions of Danger: Vigilance or Defense? 372   Avoidance of Perceptions of Extreme Probabilities 378   Summary 380   11   Cognitive Dissonance and International Relations 382  Cognitive Dissonance Theory 382  Cognitive Dissonance and Inertia 387  The Magnitude of Dissonance 392  The Impact of Spending Resources 393  Incentives and Compulsion 399  Boomerang Effects 404  Summary 406  IV In Lieu of Conclusions   12   Minimizing Misperception 409  Making Assumptions and Predictions Explicit 410  Devil's Advocates 415  Conversions 418  Identities and Missions 418  Awareness of Common Misperceptions 423  BIBLIOGRAPHY 425  INDEX 433","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403849277783,"sku":"9780691177434","price":80.75,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/perception-and-misperception-in-international-politics-9780691177434","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}