{"product_id":"natural-hazard-uncertainty-assessment-9781119027867","title":"Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eUncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include:\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cul\u003e \u003cli\u003eSubstantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included\u003c\/li\u003e \u003cli\u003eTa\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"This volume, edited by Karin Riley, Peter Webley, and Matthew Thompson, tackles the often-neglected topic of uncertainty in judging the effectiveness of the natural disaster models used when informing action...While not for casual reading, this volume nonetheless provides an approachable way to learn about the realities of natural disaster modelling. In addition, it highlights the importance of uncertainty, an inseparable part of science that is very often ignored.\" (\u003ci\u003ePhenotype\u003c\/i\u003e June 2017)\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eContributors vii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1 Uncertainty in Natural Hazards, Modeling and Decision Support: An Introduction to This Volume 1\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eKarin Riley, Matthew Thompson, Peter Webley, and Kevin D Hyde\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I: Uncertainty, Communication, and Decision Support 9\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2 Natural Hazard Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis 11\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eMatthew Thompson and Jord J Warmink\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e3 Understanding Uncertainty as a Key Interdisciplinary Problem in Earth System Science 21\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eFlorian Rauser and Gernot Geppert \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e4 Uncertainty and Probability in Wildfire Management Decision Support: An Example from the United States 31\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eMatthew Thompson, David Calkin, Joe H Scott, and Michael Hand \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5 Role of Uncertainty in Decision Support for Volcanic Ash Cloud Modeling 43\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003ePeter Webley \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II: Geological Hazards 57\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6 Building an Uncertainty Modeling Framework for Real-Time VATD 59\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003ePeter Webley, Abani Patra, Marcus Bursik, E Bruce Pitman, Jonathan Dehn, Tarung Singh, Puneet Singla, Matthew D Jones, Reza Madankan, E Ramona Stefanescu, and Solene Pouget \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7 Uncertainties in Estimating Magma Source Parameters from InSAR Observation 89\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eWenyu Gong, Zhong Lu, and Franz Meyer \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8 Improving Model Simulations of Volcanic Emission Clouds and Assessing Model Uncertainties 105\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eNina Iren Kristiansen, Delia Arnold, Christian Maurer, Julius Vira, Razvan Rădulescu, Damien Martin, ndreas Stohl, Kerstin Stebel, Mikhail Sofiev, Colin O’Dowd, and Gerhard Wotawa \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9 Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through the Energy Cone Model 125\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003ePablo Tierz, Laura Sandri, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Lucia Zaccarelli, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, and Warner Marzocchi \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10 Earthquake Loss Estimation in the Gyeongju Area, Southeastern Korea, Using a Site Classification Map 147\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eSu Young Kang and Kwang-Hee Kim \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11 Implications of Different Digital Elevation Models and Preprocessing Techniques to Delineate Debris Flow Inundation Hazard Zones in El Salvador 167\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eEric Ross Anderson, Robert E Griffin, and Daniel E Irwin \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e12 Evaluating the Performance of FLO2D for Simulating Past Lahar Events at the Most Active Mexican Volcanoes: Popocatépetl and Volcán de Colima 179\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eLizeth Caballero, Lucia Capra, and Rosario Vázquez \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III: Biophysical and Climatic Hazards 191\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e13 An Uncertainty Analysis of Wildfire Modeling 193\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eKarin Riley and Matthew Thompson\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e14 Fire and Smoke Remote Sensing and Modeling Uncertainties: Case Studies in Northern Sub]Saharan Africa 215\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eCharles Ichoku, Luke T Ellison, Yun Yue, Jun Wang, and Johannes W Kaiser \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e15 Uncertainty and Complexity Tradeoffs When Integrating Fire Spread with Hydroecological Projections 231\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eMaureen C Kennedy and Donald McKenzie \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e16 Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Projections of Extremes in Monthly Area Burned Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA 245\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eAdam J Terando, Brian Reich, Krishna Pacifici, Jennifer Costanza, Alexa McKerrow, and Jaime A Collazo \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e17 Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using CMIP5 Climate Projections 257\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eD Bachelet, T Sheehan, K Ferschweiler, and J Abatzoglou \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e18 Sensitivity of Vegetation Fires to Climate, Vegetation, and Anthropogenic Drivers in the HESFIRE Model: Consequences for Fire Modeling and Projection Uncertainties 277\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eYannick Le Page \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e19 Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire 287\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eKevin D Hyde, Karin Riley, and Cathelijne Stoof \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e20 Capturing Spatiotemporal Variation in Wildfires for Improving Postwildfire Debris-Flow Hazard Assessments 301 \u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eJessica R Haas, Matthew Thompson, Anne Tillery, and Joe H Scott \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e21 Uncertainty in Estimation of Debris-Flow Triggering Rainfall: Evaluation and Impact on Identification of Threshold Relationships 319\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eE I Nikolopoulos, F Marra, and M Borga \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e22 Prospects in Landslide Prediction: Confronting the Challenges of Precipitation Uncertainty 329\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eNatasha Markuzon, Catherine Slesnick, Erin Leidy, John Regan, Xiang Gao, and Adam Schlosser \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 337\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003c\/ul\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49406969282903,"sku":"9781119027867","price":117.85,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781119027867.jpg?v=1730497733","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/natural-hazard-uncertainty-assessment-9781119027867","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}