{"product_id":"forbidden-fruit-9780691132907","title":"Forbidden Fruit","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDevelops protocols for conducting counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"If nothing else, Forbidden Fruit shows how, through counterfactual, alternative thinking, a resounding acknowledgement of the arts can be achieved.\"--David Marx, David Marx Reviews \"I have benefited enormously from Ned Lebow's learning, imagination and intellectual effort, and am sure that many readers will feel the same way towards this judicious, yet daring, scholarly contribution to the study of history and international relations.\"--Hidemi Suganami, International Affairs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAcknowledgments ix      PART ONE  Chapter One: Making Sense of the World 3  Chapter Two: Counterfactual Thought Experiments 29      PART TWO  Chapter Three: Franz Ferdinand Found Alive: World War I Unnecessary 69  Chapter Four: Leadership and the End of the Cold War: Did It Have to End This Way? 103  Coauthored with George W. Breslauer      PART THREE  Chapter Five: Scholars and Causation 1 137  Coauthored with Philip E. Tetlock  Chapter Six: Scholars and Causation 2 166      APPENDIX  Experiment 4, Instrument 1: Unmaking American Tragedies 196  Chapter Seven: If Mozart Had Died at Your Age: Psycho-logic versus Statistical Inference 205  Chapter Eight: Heil to the Chief: Sinclair Lewis, Philip Roth, and Fascism 222      Conclusions 259  Notes 287  Index 329","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403751858519,"sku":"9780691132907","price":31.5,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780691132907.jpg?v=1730484439","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/forbidden-fruit-9780691132907","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}