{"product_id":"complex-population-dynamics-9780691090214","title":"Complex Population Dynamics","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBy bringing together mathematical models, statistical analyses, and field experiments, this book offers a comprehensive synthesis of the theory of population oscillations. It first reviews the conceptual tools that ecologists use to investigate population oscillations and then provides an in-depth discussion of several case studies.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"Turchin has to be congratulated for the conceptual clarity of the book... I especially recommend the book's first two parts to anyone interested in how to model and analyze population fluctuations... Turchin offers researchers and students alike interesting material and a great deal to think about.\"--Esa Ranta, Science \"This book contributes profoundly to the literature... [It] may have a huge impact on the field.\"--Nils Chr. Stenseth, Nature \"A superbly written text offering many fresh insights both pragmatic and profound... Throughout the book, Turchin manages to present complex material in an informal style with clarity and eloquence.\"--Douglas H. Deutschman, Ecology\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePreface xi  Mathematical Symbols xv  Part I: THEORY  1. Introduction 3  1.1 At the Sources 3  1.1.1 The Puzzle of Population Cycles 3  1.1.2 Modeling Nature 4  1.1.3 The Balance of Nature 5  1.2 General Philosophy of the Approach 6  1.2.1 Defining the Phenomenon to Be Explained 8  1.2.2 Formalizing Hypotheses as Mathematical Models 11  1.2.3 Contrasting Models with Data 14  2. Population Dynamics from First Principles 17  2.1 Introduction 17  2.2 Exponential Growth 19  2.2.1 Derivation of the Exponential Model 20  2.2.2 Comparison with the Law of Inertia 22  2.2.3 \"Laws\": Postulates, Theorems, Empirical Generalizations? 25  2.3 Self-Limitation 26  2.3.1 Upper and Lower Density Bounds 26  2.3.2 Formalizing the Notion of Self-Limitation 27  2.3.3 The Logistic Model 29  2.4 Consumer-Resource Oscillations 30  2.4.1 Three More Postulates 31  2.4.2 The Lotka-Volterra Predation Model 33  2.5 Process Order 36  2.6 Synthesis 44  3. Single-Species Populations 47  3.1 Models without Population Structure 47  3.1.1 Continuous-Time Models 48  3.1.2 Discrete-Time Models 52  3.1.3 Delayed Differential Models 56  3.2 Exogenous Drivers 58  3.2.1 Stochastic Variation 60  3.2.2 Deterministic Exogenous Factors 61  3.3 Age-and Stage-Structured Models 64  3.3.1 Mathematical Frameworks 65  3.3.2 An Example: Flour Beetle Dynamics 68  3.4 Second-Order Models 70  3.4.1 Maternal Effect Hypothesis 70  3.4.2 Kin Favoritism Model 72  3.5 Synthesis 76  4. Trophic Interactions 78  4.1 Responses of Predators to Fluctuations in Prey Density 79  4.1.1 Functional Response 79  4.1.2 Aggregative Response 88  4.1.3 Numerical Response 90  4.2 Continuous-Time Models 93  4.2.1 Generalized Lotka-Volterra Models 94  4.2.2 Models Not Conforming to the LV Framework 99  4.2.3 Anatomy of a Predator-Prey Cycle 102  4.2.4 Generalist Predators 104  4.3 Discrete-Time Models: Parasitoids 108  4.3.1 Functional and Numerical Responses 109  4.3.2 Dynamical Models 111  4.4 Grazing Systems 112  4.4.1 Grazer's Functional Response 113  4.4.2 Dynamics of Vegetation Regrowth 117  4.4.3 Dynamics of Grazer-Vegetation Interactions 120  4.4.4 Plant Quality 123  4.5 Pathogens and Parasites 127  4.5.1 Transmission Rate 127  4.5.2 Microparasitism Models 128  4.5.3 Macroparasitism Models 131  4.6 Tritrophic Models 133  4.7 Synthesis 136  5. Connecting Mathematical Theory to Empirical Dynamics 137  5.1 Introduction 137  5.2 Qualitative Types of Deterministic Dynamics 139  5.2.1 Attractors 139  5.2.2 Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions 140  5.3 Population Dynamics in the Presence of Noise 146  5.3.1 Simple Population Dynamics 146  5.3.2 Stable Periodic Oscillations 147  5.3.3 Chaotic Oscillations 148  5.3.4 Quasi-Chaotic Oscillations 151  5.3.5 Regular Exogenous Forcing 153  5.3.6 Synthesis 153  5.4 Population Regulation 154  5.4.1 Definition of Density Dependence 155  5.4.2 Regulation: Evolution of the Concept 156  5.4.3 The Stationarity Definition of Regulation 156  5.4.4 Beyond Stationarity: Stochastic Boundedness 157  5.4.5 Synthesis 158  Part II: DATA  6. Empirical Approaches: An Overview 163  6.1 Introduction 163  6.2 Analysis of Population Fluctuations 164  6.2.1 The Structure of Density Dependence 164  6.2.2 Probes: Quantitative Measures of Time-Series Patterns 165  6.2.3 Phenomenological versus Mechanistic Approaches 167  6.3 Experimental Approaches 168  7. Phenomenological Time-Series Analysis 173  7.1 Basics 173  7.1.1 Variance Decomposition 173  7.1.2 Data Manipulations Prior to Analysis 175  7.1.3 Diagnostic Tools 178  7.2 Fitting Models to Data 183  7.2.1 General Framework 183  7.2.2 Choosing the Base Lag 186  7.2.3 Functional Forms 188  7.2.4 Model Selection by Cross-Validation 191  7.3 Synthesis 195  8. Fitting Mechanistic Models 197  8.1 Model Selection 198  8.2 Analysis of Ancillary Data 200  8.3 One-Step-Ahead Prediction 201  8.4 Trajectory Matching 203  8.5 Fitting by Nonlinear Forecasting 205  Part III: CASESTUDIES  9. Larch Budmoth 213  9.1 Introduction 213  9.2 Analysis of Time-Series Data 217  9.3 Hypotheses and Models 220  9.3.1 Plant Quality 220  9.3.2 Parasitism 229  9.3.3 Putting It All Together: A Parasitism-Plant Quality Model 235  9.4 Synthesis 237  10. Southern Pine Beetle 239  10.1 Introduction 239  10.2 Analysis of Time-Series Data 240  10.3 Hypotheses and Models 243  10.3.1 General Review of Hypotheses 243  10.3.2 Interaction with Hosts 247  10.3.3 Interaction with Parasitoids 253  10.3.4 The Predation Hypothesis 255  10.4 An Experimental Test of the Predation Hypothesis 259  10.4.1 Rationale 259  10.4.2 Results 264  10.5 Synthesis 271  11. Red Grouse 272  11.1 Numerical Patterns 273  11.2 Hypotheses and Models 281  11.2.1 Overview 281  11.2.2 Parasite-Grouse Hypothesis 282  11.2.3 Kin Favoritism Hypothesis 285  11.3 Experiments 289  11.3.1 Density Manipulation 289  11.3.2 Parasite Manipulation 291  11.4 Synthesis 294  12. Voles and Other Rodents 296  12.1 Introduction 296  12.2 Analysis of Time-Series Data 297  12.2.1 Methodological Issues 297  12.2.2 Numerical Patterns 301  12.3 Hypotheses and Models 310  12.3.1 Maternal Effect Hypothesis 311  12.3.2 Interaction with Food 316  12.3.3 Predation 317  12.4 Fitting the Predation Model by NLF 321  12.5 Lemmings 325  12.5.1 Numerical Patterns 326  12.5.2 Testing Alternative Trophic Hypotheses 328  12.5.3 Lemming-Vegetation Dynamics at Barrow 331  12.6 Synthesis 335  12.6.1 Summary of Findings 335  12.6.2 Towar a General Trophic Theory of Rodent Dynamics 339  13. Snowshoe Hare 344  13.1 Introduction 344  13.2 Numerical Patterns 345  13.3 Models 349  13.4 Experiments 356  13.5 Synthesis 362  14. Ungulates 365  14.1 Introduction 365  14.2 Interaction with Food 368  14.3 Interaction with Predators 371  14.4 Numerical Dynamics 376  14.5 Synthesis 381  15. General Conclusions 383  15.1 What Mechanisms Drive Oscillations in Nature? 383  15.2 Structure of Density Dependence 386  15.3 What about Chaos? 390  15.4 Population Ecology: A Mature Science 392  Glossary 397  References 405  Index 437","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49922418901335,"sku":"9780691090214","price":66.3,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780691090214.jpg?v=1738537830","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/complex-population-dynamics-9780691090214","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}