{"product_id":"any-happy-returns-9781394210350","title":"Any Happy Returns","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003ePreface xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements xxi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author xxv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1: An Introduction to Cycles and Secular Trends 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRepeating Cycles 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Social and Political Cycle 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Business Cycle 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Financial Markets 9\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePsychology and Financial Market Super Cycles 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart I: Structural Trends and Market Super Cycles 19\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2: Equity Cycles and Their Drivers 21\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Four Phases of the Equity Cycle 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. Despair 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. Hope 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. Growth 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. Optimism 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Drivers of the Four Phases 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Cycle and Bear Markets 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIdentifying the Transition from Bear Market to Bull Market 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eValuations and the Market Inflection 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGrowth and the Market Inflection 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCombining Growth and Valuation as a Signal 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInflation, Interest Rates and the Market Inflection 37\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCombining Growth and Interest Rates 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3: Super Cycles and Their Drivers 41\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Economic Activity 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Modern Era: Growth from the 1820s 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Inflation 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Interest Rates 53\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles and Government Debt 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Inequality 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Financial Markets 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles in Equities 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural upswings\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. 1949–1968: Post-World War II Boom 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. 1982–2000: The Modern Cycle 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. 2009–2020: The Post-Financial-Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e‘Fat and Flat’ super cycles\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. 1968–1982: Inflation and Low Returns 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. 2000–2009: Bubbles and Troubles 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart II: Analysing Post-war Super Cycles 71\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4: 1949–1968: Post-World War II Boom 73\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInternational Agreements and Falling Risk Premia 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStrong Economic Growth 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnological Innovation 79\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLow and Stable Real Interest Rates 81\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Boom in World Trade 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Baby Boom 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Consumer and Credit Boom 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAll-Consuming Consumerism 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5: 1968–1982: Inflation and Low Returns 91\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA Lost Decade for Investors 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Bubble Before the Bust 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHigh Interest Rates and Low Growth 95\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Collapse of Bretton Woods 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSocial Unrest and Strikes 100\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCollapsing Trade, Increased Protectionism and Regulation 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreased Public Spending, Lower Margins 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe End of the Downturn 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6: 1982–2000: The Modern Cycle 109\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. The Great Moderation 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. Disinflation and a Lower Cost of Capital 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEuropean Interest Rate Convergence 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonetary Policy and the ‘Fed Put’ 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. Supply-Side Reforms (Including Deregulation and Privatisation) 117\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTax Reforms 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeregulation and Privatisation 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. The End of the Soviet Union (Lower Geopolitical Risk) 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. Globalisation and Cooperation 124\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTechnology and the Labour Market 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. The Impact of China and India 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7. Bubbles and Financial Innovation 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Japan Bubble and the Tech Bubble 130\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7: 2000–2009: Bubbles and Troubles 133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Bursting of the Technology Bubble 135\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLeverage and Financial Innovation 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Decline in Long-Term Growth Expectations 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise in the Equity Risk Premium 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Negative Correlation Between Bonds and Equities 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8: 2009–2020: The Post- Financial- Crisis Cycle and Zero Interest Rates 153\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. Weak Growth but High Equity Returns 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Aftershock of the Financial Crisis 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. The Era of Free Money 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Collapse in Government Bond Yields 162\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. Low Volatility 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. Rising Equity Valuations 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. Technology and the Outperformance of Growth versus Value 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Extraordinary Gap between Growth and Value 172\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. The Outperformance of the United States Over the Rest of the World 176\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eZero Rates and the Demand for Risk Assets 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9: The Pandemic and the Return of ‘Fat and Flat’ 183\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePandemic Pandemonium 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Pandemic Shock 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnother Tech Bubble 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Medicine Worked 193\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Pandemic and Inflation 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom Disinflation to Reflation 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGetting Real – The Shift Higher in the Real Cost of Capital 200\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Golden Rules Resurface 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSector Leadership and the Rotation Towards Value 202\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003ePart III: the Post-modern Cycle 207\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10: The Post-Modern Cycle 209\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Shifts and Opportunities 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDifferences from the Modern Cycle 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. A Rise in the Cost of Capital 213\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Re-emergence of Inflation 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. A Slowdown in Trend Growth 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. A Shift from Globalisation to Regionalisation 220\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. A Rise in the Cost of Labour and Commodities 225\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePost-Pandemic Reversal 229\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Consequences and Investment Implications 230\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAI and the Labour Market 232\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. An Increase in Government Spending and Debt 234\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise in Regulation and Industrial Policy 237\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEnergy Transition Spending to Increase 239\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. A Rise in Capital and Infrastructure Spending 242\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7. Changing Demographics 245\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgeing Populations and Deficits 246\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAgeing Populations and New Markets 247\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8. An Increase in Geopolitical Tensions and the Multipolar World 249\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11: The Post-Modern Cycle and Technology 251\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Technology Wins 254\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCharacteristics of Technology Revolutions 255\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExuberance, Speculation and Bubbles 256\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Dominance Effects 259\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Emergence of Secondary Technologies 260\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan Technology Remain the Biggest Sector? 262\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCan the Current Group of Dominant Technology Companies Remain Leaders? 264\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Newer Technologies May Enhance Productivity 268\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWeak Productivity in the Internet World 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom ‘Nice to Have’ to ‘Need to Have’ 271\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProductivity and the Impact of AI 272\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe PEARLs Framework for AI and Technology 274\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Pioneers 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Enablers 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Adaptors 277\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Reformers 278\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Laggards 279\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 12: The Post- Modern Cycle: Opportunities in the ‘Old Economy’ 285\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpportunities in the ‘Old Economy’ 286\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDefence Spending 289\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInfrastructure Spending 291\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGreen Spending 292\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGovernment Policy and Spending 294\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommodities Spending 298\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Investment Markets Can Help Fund the Capex Boom 300\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Future of Jobs 301\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDon’t Forget the Power of Nostalgia 303\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOn Your Bike 305\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 13: Summary and Conclusions 309\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCycles 309\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuper Cycles 311\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Post-Modern Cycle 313\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 315\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSuggested Reading 335\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 343\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48866619031895,"sku":"9781394210350","price":23.74,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781394210350.jpg?v=1722279488","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/any-happy-returns-9781394210350","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}