{"product_id":"anthropic-bias-9780415938587","title":"Anthropic Bias","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eAnthropic Bias\u003c\/em\u003e explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by observation selection effects--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to have the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as the anthropic principle, self-locating belief, or indexical information--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThere are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam \u0026amp; Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnd there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology (How many universes are there?, Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?); evolutionary theory (How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?); the problem of\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"From traffic analysis via a many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics and the problem of the fine-tuning of the universe to the purely philosophical problems of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem, Bostrom succeeds in shining a new and interesting light on all of these issues.\" --Wouter Meijs\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"Bostrom presents a highly readable and widely relevant work which can be warmly recommended to everyone in philosophy of science.\"--Christian Wuthrich, \u003cem\u003ePhilosophy of Science\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"Probably the worst thing one can say about this book is that it is too short....\u003cem\u003eAnthropic Bias\u003c\/em\u003e is a wonderful achievement, which should find place on the shelf of every serious student of modern philosophy of science, epistemology, and cosmology.\" --Milan Cirkovic, \u003cem\u003eFoundations of Science\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"\u003cem\u003eAnthropic Bias \u003c\/em\u003eis a synthesis of some of the most interesting and important ideas to emerge from discussion of cosmic fine-tuning, the anthropic principle, and the Doomsday Argument. It deserves a place on the shelves of epistemologists and philosophers of science, as well as specialists interested in the topics just mentioned.\"--Neil Manson, \u003cem\u003eNotre Dame Philosophical Reviews\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePreface  Content  Acknowledgements  Chapter1: Introduction  Observation selection effects  A brief history of anthropic reasoning  Synopsis of this book  Chapter 2: Fine- Tuning Arguments in Cosmology  Does fine-tuning need explaining?  No \"Inverse Gambler's Fallacy\"  Roger White and Phil Dowe's analysis  Surprising vs. unsurprising improbable events  Modeling observation selection effects: the angel parable  Preliminary conclusions  Chapter 3: Anthropic Principles, the Motley Family  The anthropic principle as expressing an observation selection effect  Anthropic hodgepodge  Freak observers and why earlier formulations are inadequate  The Self-Sampling Assumption  Chapter 4: Thought Experiments Supporting the Self-Sampling  Assumption  The Dungeon gedanken  Two thought experiments by John Leslie  The Incubator gedanken  The reference class problem  Chapter 5: The Self-Sampling Assumption in Science  SSA in cosmology  SSA in thermodynamics  SSA in evolutionary biology  SSA in traffic analysis  SSA in quantum physics  Summary of the case for SSA  Chapter 6: The Doomsday Argument  Background  Doomsday a la Gottv  The incorrectness of Gott's argument  Doomsday a la Leslie  The premisses of DA, and the Old evidence problem  Leslie's views on the reference class problem  Alternative conclusions of DA  Chapter 7: Invalid Objections Against the Doomsday Argument  Doesn't the Doomsday argument fail to \"target the truth\"? (Korb and Oliver)  The \"baby-paradox\" (Delahaye; Korb and Oliver)  Isn't a sample size of one too small? (Korb and Oliver)  Couldn't a Cro-Magnon man have used the Doomsday argument? (Various)  We can make the effect go away simply by considering a larger hypothesis space (Dieks; Eastmond; Korb and Oliver)  Aren't we necessarily alive now? (Mark Greenberg)  Sliding reference of \"soon\" and \"late\"? (Mark Greenberg)  How could I have been a 16th century human? (Mark Greenberg)  Doesn't your theory presuppose that what happens in causally disconnected regions affects what happens here? (Ken Olum)  But we know so much more about ourselves than our birth ranks! (Various)  The Self-Indication Assumption - Is there safety in numbers? (Various)  Chapter 8: Observer-Relative Chances in Anthropic Reasoning?  Leslie's argument, and why it fails  Observer-relative chances: another go  Discussion: indexical facts - no conflict with physicalism  In conclusion  Appendix: the no-betting results  Chapter 9: Paradoxes of the Self-Sampling Assumption  The Adam \u0026amp; Eve experiments  Analysis of Lazy Adam: predictions and counterfactuals  The UN++ gedanken: reasons and abilities  Quantum Joe: SSA and the Principal Principle  Upshot  Appendix: The Meta-Newcomb problem  Chapter 10: Observation Selection Theory: A Methodology for Anthropic Reasoning  Building blocks, theory constraints and desiderata  The outline of a solution  SSSA: Taking account of indexical information of observer-moments  Reassessing Incubator  How the reference class may be observer-moment relative  Formalizing the theory: the Observation Equation  A quantum generalization of OE  Non-triviality of the reference class: why must be rejected  A subjective factor in the choice of reference class?  Chapter 11: Observation Selection Theory Applied  Cosmological theorizing: fine-tuning and freak observers  The freak-observer problem places only lax demands on the reference class  The Sleeping Beauty problem: modeling imperfect recall  The case of no outsiders  The case with outsiders  Synthesis of the 1\/2- and the 1\/3-views  Observation selection theory applied to other scientific problems  Robustness of reference class and scientific solidity  Wrap-up  References","brand":"Taylor \u0026 Francis Ltd","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":51018216702295,"sku":"9780415938587","price":137.75,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780415938587.jpg?v=1750776046","url":"https:\/\/bookcurl.com\/products\/anthropic-bias-9780415938587","provider":"Book Curl","version":"1.0","type":"link"}