{"title":"Economic forecasting Books","description":"","products":[{"product_id":"the-map-and-the-territory-2-0-9780141978130","title":"The Map and the Territory 2.0","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eLike all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. How had our models so utterly failed us? \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eVirtually every day, we make wagers on the future - but, even when we''re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control, the maps by which we are steering are often out-of-date. \u003ci\u003eThe Map and the Territory\u003c\/i\u003e is an important attempt to update our forecasting conceptual grid using twenty-first-century technologies, offering a lucid and empirical grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can''t.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Penguin Books Ltd","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48732497838423,"sku":"9780141978130","price":11.69,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780141978130.jpg?v=1719997146"},{"product_id":"the-rise-and-fall-of-nations-9780141980706","title":"The Rise and Fall of Nations","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eTHE INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e''Entertaining, acute and disarmingly honest'' \u003ci\u003eEconomist\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e''A vital guide to the new economic order'' Rana Foroohar, \u003ci\u003eTime\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe crisis of 2008 ended the illusion of a golden era in which many  people imagined that prosperity and political calm would continue to  spread indefinitely. In a world now racked by slowing growth and  mounting unrest, how can we discern which nations will thrive and which  will fail? \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eShaped by prize-winning author Ruchir Sharma''s twenty-five years travelling the world, \u003ci\u003eThe Rise and Fall of Nations\u003c\/i\u003e  rethinks economics as a practical art. By narrowing down the thousands  of factors that can shape a country''s future, it spells out ten clear  rules for identifying the next big winners and losers in the global  economy.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e''The  nub of the book is how to spot which countries are likely to succeed,  and which to fail, in this impermanent world. Sharma offers a framework  of \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eFilled with amazing data ... fascinating insights and revealing anecdotes, this is quite simply the best guide to the global economy today.  Whether you are an observer or an investor, you cannot afford to ignore it. -- Fareed Zakaria\u003cbr\u003eA fine guide to the great emerging market boom and bust. * The Economist *\u003cbr\u003eSharma's wealth of knowledge ... and ample experience on the ground are strong foundations for his exploration of what makes economies break out, or break down. * Reuters *\u003cbr\u003eFor sheer readability and insight on the developing world drama, I dare say you won't find a better choice. * Wall Street Journal *\u003cbr\u003eA vital guide to the new economic order. -- Rana Foroohar * Time *\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Penguin Books Ltd","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48732500164951,"sku":"9780141980706","price":11.69,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780141980706.jpg?v=1719997156"},{"product_id":"introduction-to-econometrics-9780199676828","title":"Introduction to Econometrics","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIntroduction to Econometrics provides students with clear and simple mathematics notation and step-by-step explanations of mathematical proofs, to give them a thorough understanding of the subject. Extensive exercises throughout build confidence by encouraging students to apply econometric techniques. Retaining its student-friendly approach, Introduction to Econometrics has a comprehensive revision guide to all the essential statistical concepts needed to study econometrics, additional Monte Carlo simulations, new summaries, and non-technical introductions to more advanced topics at the end of chapters.This book is supported by online resources, which include:For lecturers: Instructor''s manual for the text and data sets, detailing the exercises and their solutions. Customizable PowerPoint slides.For students: Data sets referred to in the book. A comprehensive study guide offers students the opportunity to gain experience with econometrics through practice with exercises. Software manual. PowerPoint slides with explanations.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eReview from previous edition What sets this book apart is abundance of available online material... * Sunčica Vujić, University of Antwerp *\u003cbr\u003eThis is an excellent text for introductory econometrics courses and this edition is even better, especially with the increase in figures and charts. * Dr Bruce Morley, University of Bath *\u003cbr\u003eStudents of finance need to be comfortable with the econometric tools necessary to both grasp empirical work and undertake it. This text provides an excellent point of reference and constant companion in developing precisely that understanding. * Paul Stewart, University of Ulster *\u003cbr\u003eExcellent textbook, which I have adopted as required reading for my class. The explanations are very clear, and yet it is very concise and does not overwhelm students. * Thomas Chadefaux, Trinity College Dublin *\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eINTRODUCTION; REVIEW: RANDOM VARIABLES, SAMPLING, ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE","brand":"Oxford University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48732881617239,"sku":"9780199676828","price":68.39,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780199676828.jpg?v=1719998798"},{"product_id":"next-100-years-the-a-forecast-for-the-21st-century-9780749007430","title":"Next 100 Years The A Forecast for the 21st","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eMexico making a bid for global supremacy? Poland becoming America's closest ally? World War III taking place in space? It might sound fantastic but all these things can happen. This title offers a readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the 21st century. It predicts where and why future wars will erupt.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e'A unique combination of cold-eyed realism and boldly confident fortune-telling' Publishers Weekly","brand":"Allison \u0026 Busby","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48736547733847,"sku":"9780749007430","price":11.69,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780749007430.jpg?v=1723810716"},{"product_id":"research-in-economic-history-9781800718807","title":"Research in Economic History","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn this 37th volume of \u003cem\u003eResearch in Economic History\u003c\/em\u003e, editors Christopher Hanes and Susan Wolcott assemble a group of lead experts to showcase new historical data, analyses of historical questions, and an investigation of historians’ networks.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe volume covers a wide range of ideas, beginning with an examination of the sharp decline in school attendance among white children in the Southern US after the Civil War, followed by a study on the fiscal administration of an experimental parliamentary subsidy on English knight’s fees and income from 1431. A third paper assembles new county-level, household-level, and individual-level data, including new complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of the 1830-1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for the nineteenth-century American fertility decline.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe volume then pivots to deal with the development of banking in the Crown of Aragon from the end of the 13th century through the establishment of money changers. Finally, the volume summarizes in detail the content of Pieter Stadnitski’s revolutionary 1787 report \u003cem\u003eAn Explanatory Message Concerning the Funds\u003c\/em\u003e, analyzing its arguments with the context of Dutch archival materials including deeds, newspaper reports, and letters, as well as congressional records from American sources.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis new volume presents fascinating new areas of enquiry and analysis for all scholars in the field of economic history, including economists, historians and demographers.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eChapter 1. When the Race between Education and Technology Goes Backwards: The Postbellum Decline of White School Attendance in the Southern US; \u003cem\u003eHoyt Bleakley and Sok Chul Hong\u003cbr\u003e \u003c\/em\u003eChapter 2. The Parliamentary Subsidy on Knights' Fees and Incomes of 1431: A Study on the Fiscal Administration of an Abortive English Tax Experiment; \u003cem\u003eAlex Brayson\u003c\/em\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 3. Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data; \u003cem\u003eJ. David Hacker, Michael R. Haines, and Matthew Jaremski\u003c\/em\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 4. Private banking and financial networks in the Crown of Aragon during the 14th century; \u003cem\u003eAlbert Reixach Sala\u003c\/em\u003e\u003cbr\u003e Chapter 5. Pieter Stadnitski Sharpens the Axe: A Revolutionary Research Report on American Sovereign Finance, 1787; \u003cem\u003ePeter Theodore Veru\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Emerald Publishing Limited","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48741761384791,"sku":"9781800718807","price":59.24,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}]},{"product_id":"strategic-foresight-9781909470668","title":"Strategic Foresight","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis is a book is for leaders, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change - it's a very practical (field) guide to foresight and foresight tools. It's aimed at leaders in manufacturing, service, non-profit, government and fourth sector organisations. Strategic Foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures exercising your 'futures muscles' so that you are able to plan for and take advantage of these possible futures. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty and how these play a role in our ability to think into the future. It introduces a simple model of preferred thinking styles and talks about the 'baggage' and values that form our perceptions. The next section covers models, tools and maps that people will find useful for developing their own Foresight and using this knowledge to make decisions, whilst uncovering innovation and creativity to turn this Foresight knowledge to competitive advantage. This is not a comprehensive list - just a selection of the most effective tools with their use and case studies that are easy and effective to use. The next two sections cover: How to identify emerging trends; what impact they may have on your business; the strategic importance of early recognition; and how to apply the knowledge in your business. Harnessing Foresight as a spring board for innovation and creativity to develop new paradigms and take advantage of what may come. Finally, the author pulls it all together by showing how to develop a practical method of exploring potential futures in the context of your existing business in order to take robust decisions and develop strategies that help you work towards your preferred future. Case studies are interspersed throughout the book to illustrate the points made along with exercises, where appropriate, to encourage people to 'think along' with the ideas and new ways of approaching Strategic Foresight.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAppreciation Introduction Chapter 1: What is Strategic Foresight? Chapter 2: Strategic Foresight – Starting the sense-making journey Chapter 3: Thinking about Thinking – Developing your Strategic  Foresight muscles Chapter 4: The Future is a Foreign Country Chapter 5: Preparing for the Future – Using Environmental Scanning, emerging trends and engaging your best for change Chapter 6: Mapping and Exploration of the Systems Chapter 7: Systems Thinking – Messes and wicked problems Chapter 8: Exploring Different Paradigms Chapter 9: Learning from the Future and Engaging in Change Chapter 10: Flexing your Foresight Muscles Index","brand":"Triarchy Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48742529859927,"sku":"9781909470668","price":17.51,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781909470668.jpg?v=1720061778"},{"product_id":"mechanism-in-organic-chemistry-9780471020516","title":"Mechanism in Organic Chemistry","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe definitive guide to technical analysis... written from a trader's perspective  With the keen insight and perspective that have made him a market legend, Jack D. Schwager explores, explains, and examines the application of technical analysis in futures trading.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePartial table of contents:\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e CHART ANALYSIS.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Charts: Forecasting Tool or Folklore?\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Trends.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Trading Ranges.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Chart Patterns.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Is Chart Analysis Still Valid?\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Setting Objectives and Other Position Exit Criteria.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Linking Contracts for Long-Term Chart Analysis: Nearest Versus Continuous Futures.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e REAL-WORLD CHART ANALYSIS.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Real-World Chart Analysis.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e OSCILLATORS AND CYCLES.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Cycle Analysis of the Futures Markets (R. Mogey \u0026amp; J. Schwager).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e TRADING SYSTEMS AND PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Examples of Original Trading Systems.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Testing and Optimizing Trading Systems.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e PRACTICAL TRADING GUIDELINES.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Eighty-Two Trading Rules and Market Observations.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Index.","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48864643809623,"sku":"9780471020516","price":70.5,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780471020516.jpg?v=1722272867"},{"product_id":"learning-from-the-future-9780471303527","title":"Learning from the Future","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe first book to present practical methods for using the technique of scenario planning to chart a company's course. The program offered here is based on methods developed at Royal Dutch Shell and popularized by Peter Schwartz in the bestselling The Art of the Long View.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePartial table of contents:\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO LEARNING.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Integrating Strategy and Scenarios (L. Fahey \u0026amp; R. Randall).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Using Scenarios to Identify, Analyze, and Manage Uncertainty (B. Marsh).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e BASIC APPROACHES TO CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Scenario Planning: Mapping the Paths to the Desired Future (D. Mason).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Testing Your Strategies in Scenarios (C. Perrottet).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Scenarios for Global Investment Strategy for the New Century (P. Schwartz \u0026amp; J. Ogilvy).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e SCENARIO APPLICATION IN DIVERSE CONTEXTS.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Competitor Scenarios: Projecting a Rival's Marketplace Strategy (L. Fahey).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e MANAGING THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT FOR SCENARIO LEARNING.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Articulating the Business Idea: The Key to Relevant Scenarios (K. van der Heijden).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Cross-Scenario Planning Process (D. Randall \u0026amp; R. Wilson).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Notes.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e About the Author.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Index.","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48864646857047,"sku":"9780471303527","price":37.5,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780471303527.jpg?v=1722272881"},{"product_id":"elliott-wave-principle-9780471988496","title":"Elliott Wave Principle","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe Elliott Wave Principle is based on the concept that stock market prices rise and fall in patterns which can be linked together into waves. It is examined here as an analytical tool which describes how the stock market behaves, and forecasts future trends.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePart I: Elliott Theory\u003cbr\u003e The Broad Concept\u003cbr\u003e Guidelines of Wave Formation\u003cbr\u003e Historical and Mathematical Background of the Wave Principle\u003cbr\u003e Part II: Elliott Applied\u003cbr\u003e Ratio Analysis and Fibonacci Time Sequences\u003cbr\u003e Long Term Waves and an Up-to-Date Composite\u003cbr\u003e Stocks and Commodities\u003cbr\u003e Other Approaches to the Stock Market and Their Relationship to the Wave Principle\u003cbr\u003e Elliott Speaks\u003cbr\u003e Appendix: Long Term Forecast Update, 1982 -\u003cbr\u003e 1983\u003cbr\u003e Publisher's Postscript","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48864654033239,"sku":"9780471988496","price":41.8,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780471988496.jpg?v=1722272913"},{"product_id":"adaptive-markets-9780691191362","title":"Adaptive Markets","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"Winner of the 2018 PROSE Award for Excellence in Social Sciences, Association of American Publishers\"\u003cbr\u003e\"Winner of the 2018 PROSE Award for Business, Finance \u0026amp; Management, Association of American Publishers\"\u003cbr\u003e\"Finalist for the 2017 TIAA Paul A. Samuelson Award, TIAA Institute\"\u003cbr\u003e\"Shortlisted for the 2017 Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of the CNBC 13 Best Business Books of 2017\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of Foreign Affairs Best of Books 2017 – Economic, Social, and Environment \/ Finance\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of The New York Times Deal Book “Business Books Worth Reading” 2017 (chosen by Andrew Sorkin)\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of Exame’s “9 books that will help you get rich in 2018”\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of MoneyWeek’s “Five of the best books of 2017” (chosen by Dr. Matthew Partridge)\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of The Wall Street Journal’s What Business Leaders Read in 2017\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of the Microsoft Best Business Books of 2017\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of Financial Times (FT.com) Best Books of 2017: Economics\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of Bloomberg’s Best Books of 2017, chosen by Vitor Constancio\"\u003cbr\u003e\"One of Bloomberg’s Best Books of 2017, chosen by Robert Shiller\"\u003cbr\u003e\"[\u003ci\u003eAdaptive \u003c\/i\u003eMarkets] is very well written, striking a right balance between education and teaching.\"\u003cb\u003e---Mathis Mörke, \u003ci\u003eMarkets and Portfolio Management\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"\u003ci\u003e[Adaptive Markets]\u003c\/i\u003e delivers an important contribution to the ongoing discussion about the EMH in a very entertaining way.\"\u003cb\u003e---Christoph Kaserer, \u003ci\u003eJournal of Economics\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48865542439255,"sku":"9780691191362","price":17.09,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780691191362.jpg?v=1722274474"},{"product_id":"superforecasting-9780804136716","title":"Superforecasting","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eNEW YORK TIMES \u003c\/i\u003eBESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY \u003ci\u003eTHE ECONOMIST \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003cb\u003e“\u003c\/b\u003eThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman''s \u003ci\u003eThinking, Fast and Slow\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003cb\u003e”\u003c\/b\u003e—Jason Zweig, \u003ci\u003eThe Wall Street Journal\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e  \u003cbr\u003e Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?\u003cbr\u003e  \u003cbr\u003e In \u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are superforecasters.\u003cbr\u003e  \u003cbr\u003e In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003ci\u003eSuperforecasting\u003c\/i\u003e offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.","brand":"Crown Publishing Group (NY)","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48865938309463,"sku":"9780804136716","price":11.4,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780804136716.jpg?v=1722276282"},{"product_id":"the-growth-delusion-9781408893746","title":"The Growth Delusion","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbig\u003e\u003cb\u003eSHORTLISTED FOR THE ORWELL PRIZE FOR POLITICAL WRITING 2019\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/big\u003e\u003cb\u003e''A near miracle'' Ha-Joon Chang, author of \u003ci\u003e23 Things They Don''t Tell You About Capitalism\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003eAccording to the economy, we have never been wealthier or happier. So why doesn't it feel that way? \u003ci\u003eThe Growth Delusion\u003c\/i\u003e explores how we prioritise growth maximisation without stopping to think about the costs. So much of what is important to our well-being, from safe streets to sound minds, lies outside the purview of statistics. In a book that is both thought-provoking and entertaining, David Pilling argues that our steadfast loyalty to growth is informing misguided policies, and proposes different criteria for measuring our success.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eA \u003cb\u003emost thoughtful and profound philosophical reflection\u003c\/b\u003e on how we live our lives, organise our societies and shape the future of humanity. It\u003cb\u003e should be compulsory reading\u003c\/b\u003e for everyone who is interested in making the world a better place -- Ha-Joon Chang, author of '23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism'\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eA welcome antidote to the gospel according to GDP\u003c\/b\u003e -- David Smith * Sunday Times *\u003cbr\u003eA\u003cb\u003e witty, well-informed and well-travelled guide to our obsession with growth\u003c\/b\u003e ... If he sometimes makes fun of measurement, he also makes measurement fun. A real achievement -- Angus Deaton, Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eEngaging and enlightening\u003c\/b\u003e, \u003ci\u003eThe Growth Delusion \u003c\/i\u003eexplains not only why the emperor has no clothes, but why he wasn’t really the emperor in the first place -- David Mitchell, author of 'Cloud Atlas'\u003cbr\u003eIf you thought that GDP did not necessarily translate into increased welfare, David Pilling shows you convincingly why you were right. One of the \u003ci\u003eFinancial Times\u003c\/i\u003e' most brilliant columnists, Pilling has produced \u003cb\u003ea book that will become a classic\u003c\/b\u003e -- Jagdish Bhagwati, author of 'Why Growth Matters' and 'In Defense of Globalization'\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eExcellent. \u003c\/b\u003eThe argument for better ways of measuring prosperity is steadily gathering momentum -- Rohan Silva * Evening Standard *\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eA rare beast: a book on economics that is well written, accessible and – whisper it – entertaining\u003c\/b\u003e! Witty, widely travelled and well-informed, David Pilling is an excellent guide to the pitfalls and shortcomings of GDP and a trenchant exponent of the need to move beyond the ‘cult of growth’ * New Internationalist *\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eSharp and engaging\u003c\/b\u003e ... Pilling argues that gross domestic product (GDP) is an arbitrary, oversimplified human invention that we slavishly follow, and growth is a modern \"cult\". Like all cults, it requires unquestioning allegiance - in this case the one-decimal-point figure produced by national statisticians every three months. Pilling, who has written about GDP from five continents over 20 years for the \u003ci\u003eFT\u003c\/i\u003e, started asking questions about the cult and couldn't stop ... Pilling is right that the spell needs to be broken ... \u003cb\u003eEntertaining and well-argued\u003c\/b\u003e -- Philip Aldrich * The Times *\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eA surprisingly zippy book that has the potential to take a smart riposte of mindless growth into mainstream debate\u003c\/b\u003e … Pilling isn’t afraid to make the well-worn criticisms of GDP, and does with clarity and force. But the real beauty of the book is how effortlessly he takes this argument a step further, demonstrating how GDP often makes no sense whatsoever, even taken on its own terms … A wonderful book … \u003cb\u003eA surprisingly addictive page turner, capable of captivating the general reader\u003c\/b\u003e on a subject known for making eyes glaze over … By injecting a credible dose of ambivalence into common assumptions about GDP he offers a very welcome entry into post-2008 economic writing * Resurgence Ecologist *\u003cbr\u003eBriskly and engagingly, David Pilling alerts us to our impoverished sense of reality in an age that has sacrificed quality to quantity. \u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eThe Growth Delusion\u003c\/i\u003e should be read by everyone who wants to make sense of the political earthquakes of our time\u003c\/b\u003e -- Pankaj Mishra, author of 'Age of Anger'\u003cbr\u003eThis is an \u003cb\u003eexcellent and timely book\u003c\/b\u003e which should be mandatory reading for policymakers, economists, investors and, yes, journalists. It exposes the folly of our modern obsession with a narrow concept of economics and our reliance on gross domestic product data as a sign of well being - and does this in a \u003cb\u003elively, well written\u003c\/b\u003e, and easy-to-understand way -- Gillian Tett, author of 'Fool's Gold' and 'The Silo Effect'\u003cbr\u003eEntertaining and well-argued -- Book of the Week * The Week *\u003cbr\u003eIn \u003ci\u003eThe Growth Delusion \u003c\/i\u003ePilling makes \u003cb\u003ean important yet complicated subject accessible to experts and non-experts alike\u003c\/b\u003e. The book offers a most insightful and at times witty guide to the essential question: what precisely is economic growth for and how can it be harnessed to improve the lives of people in poor countries as well as rich ones? -- Kofi Annan, seventh Secretary-General of the United Nations and Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize\u003cbr\u003eThis is \u003cb\u003ea fascinating and extremely readable book\u003c\/b\u003e which engagingly challenges many of our assumptions about what makes for a successful economy and a happy life -- Chris Patten, the last Governor of Hong Kong and author of 'East and 'West'\u003cbr\u003eWhat economics needs now, what we all need, are people who can bring it back to life. In \u003ci\u003eThe Growth Delusion \u003c\/i\u003ePilling does exactly that, charting the idea of economic growth from its birth to the present \u003cb\u003ethrough countless vivid stories\u003c\/b\u003e -- Joe Earle, author of 'The Econocracy'","brand":"Bloomsbury Publishing PLC","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48866827895127,"sku":"9781408893746","price":9.99,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781408893746.jpg?v=1722280177"},{"product_id":"the-world-in-2050-how-to-think-about-the-future-9781526600066","title":"The World in 2050: How to Think About the Future","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003e'A dazzling history of the future – Hamish McRae has given us a \u003ci\u003etour de force\u003c\/i\u003e' \u003c\/b\u003e- Tim Harford \u003cb\u003e_______________\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cb\u003eA bold and illuminating vision of the future, from one of Europe’s foremost speakers on global trends in economics, business and society\u003c\/b\u003e  What will the world look like in 2050? How will complex forces of change – demography, the environment, finance, technology and ideas about governance – affect our global society? And how, with so many unknowns, should we think about the future?     One of Europe’s foremost voices on global trends in economics, business and society, Hamish McRae takes us on an exhilarating journey through the next thirty years. Drawing on decades of research, and combining economic judgement with historical perspective, Hamish weighs up the opportunities and dangers we face, analysing the economic tectonic plates of the past and present in order to help us chart a map of the future.  A bold and vital vision of our planet, \u003ci\u003eThe World in 2050\u003c\/i\u003e is an essential projection for anyone worried about what the future holds. For if we understand how our world is changing, we will be in a better position to secure our future in the decades to come.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePRAISE FOR \u003ci\u003eTHE WORLD IN 2050\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e: A dazzling history of the future – Hamish McRae has given us a tour de force. * Tim Harford *\u003cbr\u003eWholeheartedly recommended … exceptionally stimulating … a cornucopia of well-reasoned, insightful analysis. -- Ian Harwood * The Society of Professional Economists *\u003cbr\u003eExceptionally wide ranging, deeply thoughtful and well written ... We cannot predict the future, but fortunately we can read Hamish McRae’s masterful analysis to anticipate, understand and shape it. * Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalisation and Development, University of Oxford *\u003cbr\u003eLooking into the future takes courage and insight and fortunately Hamish McRae has both. In this engrossing book, he draws on a wealth of research to examine the great trends that are shaping our world and help us to understand where we are going -- Margaret MacMillan\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003ePraise for \u003ci\u003eThe World in 2020: \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e  Each page bristles with insights. Everybody who is thoughtful about the future should read this book * Sunday Times *\u003cbr\u003eA rare combination of economics, political judgement and human values -- Anthony Sampson\u003cbr\u003eBrings together a wealth of information, sound judgements and an eye for telling detail * Financial Times *\u003cbr\u003eThe best topographical survey of the world’s economic landscape that I have read * International Herald Tribune *\u003cbr\u003eThoughtful, sensible, and extremely well-written * Economist *","brand":"Bloomsbury Publishing PLC","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48867472081239,"sku":"9781526600066","price":11.69,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781526600066.jpg?v=1722283439"},{"product_id":"the-cloud-revolution-how-the-convergence-of-new-technologies-will-unleash-the-next-economic-boom-and-a-roaring-2020s-9781641772303","title":"The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe conventional wisdom on how technology will change the future is wrong. Mark Mills lays out a radically different and optimistic vision for what’s really coming.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe mainstream forecasts fall into three camps. One considers today as the “new normal,” where ordering a ride or food on a smartphone or trading in bitcoins is as good as it’s going to get. Another foresees a dystopian era of widespread, digitally driven job- and business-destruction. A third believes that the only technological revolution that matters will be found with renewable energy and electric cars.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e But according to Mills, a convergence of technologies will instead drive an economic boom over the coming decade, one that historians will characterize as the “Roaring 2020s.” It will come not from any single big invention, but from the confluence of radical advances in three primary technology domains: microprocessors, materials, and machines. Microprocessors are increasingly embedded in everything. Materials, from which everything is built, are emerging with novel, almost magical capabilities. And machines, which make and move all manner of stuff, are undergoing a complementary transformation. Accelerating and enabling all of this is the Cloud, history’s biggest infrastructure, which is itself based on the building blocks of next-generation microprocessors and artificial intelligence.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe’ve seen this pattern before. The technological revolution that drove the great economic expansion of the twentieth century can be traced to a similar confluence, one that was first visible in the 1920s: a new information infrastructure (telephony), new machines (cars and power plants), and new materials (plastics and pharmaceuticals). Single inventions don’t drive great, long-cycle booms. It always takes convergent revolutions in technology’s three core spheres—information, materials, and machines. Over history, that’s only happened a few times. \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWe have wrung much magic from the technologies that fueled the last long boom. But the great convergence now underway will ignite the 2020s. And this time, unlike any previous historical epoch, we have the Cloud amplifying everything. The next long boom starts now.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e“Entertaining and educating while linking history, technology and unusual savvy, Mark Mills’s The Cloud Revolution shows an unprecedented upcoming convergence of technological forces from whose acquaintance you can’t help but be a much better investor.”  —Ken Fisher, founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, multi-national columnist, and bestselling author \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e“Makes the exciting—and convincing—case that we’re on the cusp of a fantastic new era of technological breakthroughs that will vastly enrich our lives. What a timely—and much needed—antidote to the debilitating pessimism that now reigns.” —Steve Forbes, chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes Media \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e“A compelling case for optimism: An economic boom in the immediate future driven by the convergence of three evolving technologies aided by the Cloud. Tons of verifiable data support the case… An antidote to the doomsday scenarios that seem to tint everything today.” —Julio M. Ottino, dean of the Robert R. McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Northwestern University \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e“This is a book about how the future will work. The ‘20s’ will roar because of the new economy made possible by the Cloud. ‘Data is the new oil’ not because it replaces oil but because of the wide range of new industries and innovation it will spawn. This is a book that one will learn much from—and be amazed by.” —Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit, and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of \u003ci\u003eThe Prize and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“\u003ci\u003eThe Cloud Revolution \u003c\/i\u003eis the 2020s indispensable book for investors, boards, entrepreneurs and executives. Mark Mills explains why digital acceleration is occurring but better yet, how the cloud juggernaut will alter the value of the physical economy, from materials to manufacturing to medicine. Trillions of new wealth will be created at the intersection of digital and physical.” — Rich Karlgaard, Publisher, \u003ci\u003eForbes\u003c\/i\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e“In \u003ci\u003eThe Cloud Revolution,\u003c\/i\u003e Mark Mills argues that not only is Moore’s law alive and well but a number of technologies are now maturing into powerhouses of their own. And the confluence of information and these new technologies will lead to another roaring era, akin to the 1920s, when radio, automobiles, airplanes, and electrification remade the world… Mills, who is a physicist and energy expert, broadens our too-often information-centric technological horizon with a host of new innovations in materials and machines.”\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e—Bret Swanson, Nonresident Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"Bringing a helpful historical perspective to the story of technological evolution, Mills compares present-day inventions with the miracles of yesteryear.\"\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e—\u003ci\u003eGrant’s Interest Rate Observer\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\"One of the most important economic books of 2021 . . . . This is a great book for anyone trying to understand how the stock market can rocket thousands of points to all-time highs while the world is suffering and struggling through a global pandemic.\"\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e—\u003ci\u003eThe Northside Sun \u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"Mills convincingly argues with verve, vitality, and – most importantly – evidence, that humanity is about to take a great step forward in the coming decade. \"\u003cbr\u003e—\u003ci\u003eRealClearScience\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cem\u003e\"The Cloud Revolution \u003c\/em\u003eis nothing short of spectacular. And so is our future. As Mills opines near the end of an extraordinarily engrossing book, we’re at the beginning of 'the most exciting and promising time in history.' Yes we are. Mark Mills artfully shows us why we are.\"—\u003ci\u003eRealClearMarkets\u003c\/i\u003e\u003ci\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e\"By leveraging an encyclopedic approach to the history of technology, Mills presents a boldly optimistic vision of a future that ushers in a new golden age for all humanity, one that will be made possible by the world's first, civilization-wide intelligent information infrastructure: the cloud.\"—James P. Woods Jr., \u003ci\u003eEnterpreise.nxt\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"Encounter Books,USA","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48867916742999,"sku":"9781641772303","price":23.39,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781641772303.jpg?v=1722285591"},{"product_id":"fluke-chance-chaos-and-why-everything-we-do-matters-9781668055847","title":"Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"Simon \u0026 Schuster","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48868031430999,"sku":"9781668055847","price":14.4,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781668055847.jpg?v=1722286095"},{"product_id":"everything-is-obvious-why-common-sense-is-nonsense-9781848872165","title":"Everything is Obvious: Why Common Sense is","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eSociologist Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book that the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life - explanations that seem obvious once we know the answer - are less useful than they seem. Watts shows how commonsense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into thinking that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOnly by understanding how and when common sense fails can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present-an argument that has important implications in politics, business, marketing, and even everyday life.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eFrom the reviews of \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e\u003ci\u003eEverything is Obvious\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003e:\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e'A fascinating book that ranges through psychology, economics, marketing and the science of networks.' Wall Street Journal          \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e'Watts is an enjoyable companion... His enthusiasm is admirable and the book will hold valuable insights for a great many professions.' Prospect\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e 'Penetrating and engaging... Common sense is a kind of bespoke make-believe, and we can no more use it to scientifically explain the workings of the social world than we can use a hammer to understand molluscs... It's this sort of study, not common sense, that will shed bright light on human affairs.'\u003c\/p\u003e * New York Times *","brand":"Atlantic Books","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48868754686295,"sku":"9781848872165","price":11.69,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781848872165.jpg?v=1722289554"},{"product_id":"public-spending-into-the-millennium-9781874097808","title":"Public Spending into the Millennium","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"The Social Market Foundation","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":48888237785431,"sku":"9781874097808","price":10.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}]},{"product_id":"sold-out-9780241584590","title":"Sold Out","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eEmpty shelves, petrol station queues and energy shortages: crises more familiar to those who lived through the 1960s and 1970s have now become a reality for many as global shipping times are squeezed, containers lie unopened at docks and supply shortages push up inflation, increasing the cost of consumer goods from milk to cars to building materials.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn \u003ci\u003e\u003cb\u003eSold Out\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/i\u003e, James Rickards explains why the shelves are empty, who broke the supply chain and why shortages will persist. He breaks down the history and structure of business around the world to offer readers a behind-the-scenes look at what''s really going on, and what they can do to mitigate the worst of what''s to come.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eDrawing on his financial expertise, he explains that consumers and investors need to be nimble to come through this unprecedented turn of events in good shape. Luckily, Rickards is on hand to provide the tools readers need to look ahead, monitor key trends and insulate against risks.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Penguin Books Ltd","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49083436040535,"sku":"9780241584590","price":13.49,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780241584590.jpg?v=1725548937"},{"product_id":"forewarned-a-sceptics-guide-to-prediction-9781785902222","title":"Forewarned: A Sceptic's Guide to Prediction","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhether it’s an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or a washout summer that threatens to ruin a holiday in the sun, forecasts are part and parcel of our everyday lives. We rely wholeheartedly on them, and become outraged when things don’t go exactly to plan.   But should we really put so much trust in predictions? Perhaps gut instincts can trump years of methodically compiled expert knowledge? And when exactly is a forecast not a forecast? Forewarned will answer all of these intriguing questions, and many more.   Packed with fun anecdotes and startling facts, Forewarned is a myth-busting guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. It lays out the many ways forecasting can help us make better decisions in an unpredictable modern world, and reveals when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the uncertainties of the future – and when they are best ignored.","brand":"Biteback Publishing","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49084372287831,"sku":"9781785902222","price":12.34,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781785902222.jpg?v=1725551931"},{"product_id":"the-next-big-asian-brands-who-will-emerge-stronger-and-smarter-in-the-post-covid-world-9789815009644","title":"The Next Big Asian Brands: Who Will Emerge","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"Marshall Cavendish International (Asia) Pte Ltd","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49084946645335,"sku":"9789815009644","price":12.59,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9789815009644.jpg?v=1725553839"},{"product_id":"the-great-reset-9780062009050","title":"The Great Reset","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"HarperCollins Publishers Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49369122177367,"sku":"9780062009050","price":12.59,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780062009050.jpg?v=1730128488"},{"product_id":"yield-curve-modeling-and-forecasting-9780691146805","title":"Yield Curve Modeling and Forecasting","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOffers an understanding of the dynamic evolution of the yield curve is critical to many financial tasks, including pricing financial assets and their derivatives, managing financial risk, allocating portfolios, structuring fiscal debt, and valuing capital goods. This title contains essential tools for academics, central banks, and more.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"Diebold and Rudebusch have succeeded in writing a milestone book that will be used variously as a standard reference, a guide for future research topics, a text book, or as a convenient introduction to the topics of yield curve modeling and macro-finance. Hence, while forecasting (especially about the future) is always fraught with peril, I'm confident that copies of the book will find their way into many collections, and that they will be actively used when they get there.\"--Leo Krippner, International Review of Economics and Finance \"[T]he methods presented in the book are of great importance in financial market practice. The book is designed for academics, students, and practitioners working in yield curve modeling and forecasting, and it will be useful for all interested in bond markets and their links with the macroeconomic environment.\"--Malgorzata Doman, Zentralblatt MATH\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eList of Illustrations ix  Introduction xi  Preface xiii  Additional Acknowledgment xvii  1 Facts, Factors, and Questions 1 *1.1 Three Interest Rate Curves 2 *1.2 Zero-Coupon Yields 3 *1.3 Yield Curve Facts 4 *1.4 Yield Curve Factors 7 *1.5 Yield Curve Questions 13 *1.6 Onward 22  2 Dynamic Nelson-Siegel 23 *2.1 Curve Fitting 23 *2.2 Introducing Dynamics 26 *2.3 State-Space Representation 30 *2.4 Estimation 34 *2.5 Multicountry Modeling 42 *2.6 Risk Management 46 *2.7 DNS Fit and Forecasting 49  3 Arbitrage-Free Nelson-Siegel 55 *3.1 A Two-Factor Warm-Up 58 *3.2 The Duffie-Kan Framework 62 *3.3 Making DNS Arbitrage-Free 64 *3.4 Workhorse Models 78 *3.5 AFNS Restrictions on A0(3) 83 *3.6 Estimation 86 *3.7 AFNS Fit and Forecasting 90  4 Extensions 96 *4.1 Variations on the Basic Theme 96 *4.2 Additional Yield Factors 105 *4.3 Stochastic Volatility 113 *4.4 Macroeconomic Fundamentals 117  5 Macro-Finance 126 *5.1 Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modeling 126 *5.2 Macro-Finance and AFNS 131 *5.3 Evolving Research Directions 144  6 Epilogue 149 *6.1 Is Imposition of No-Arbitrage Helpful? 151 *6.2 Is AFNS the Only Tractable A0(3) Model? 153 *6.3 Is AFNS Special? 155  Appendixes 159  Appendix A Two-Factor AFNS Calculations 161 * A.1 Risk-Neutral Probability 161 * A.2 Euler Equation 163  Appendix B Details of AFNS Restrictions 166 * B.1 Independent-Factor AFNS 168 * B.2 Correlated-Factor AFNS 171  Appendix C The AFGNS Yield-Adjustment Term 174  Bibliography 179  Index 197","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49371743682903,"sku":"9780691146805","price":999.99,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}]},{"product_id":"looking-forward-9780226475004","title":"Looking Forward","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn the decades after the Civil War, the world experienced monumental changes in industry, trade, and governance. As Americans faced this uncertain future, public debate sprang up over the accuracy and value of predictions, asking whether it was possible to look into the future with any degree of certainty. In Looking Forward, Jamie L. Pietruska uncovers a culture of prediction in the modern era, where forecasts became commonplace as crop forecasters, weather prophets, business forecasters, utopian novelists, and fortune-tellers produced and sold their visions of the future. Private and government forecasters competed for authority as well as for an audience and a single prediction could make or break a forecaster's reputation. Pietruska argues that this late nineteenth-century quest for future certainty had an especially ironic consequence: it led Americans to accept uncertainty as an inescapable part of both forecasting and twentieth-century economic and cultural life.   Drawing together histories of science, technology, capitalism, environment, and culture, Looking Forward explores how forecasts functioned as new forms of knowledge and risk management tools that sometimes mitigated, but at other times exacerbated, the very uncertainties they were designed to conquer. Ultimately Pietruska shows how Americans came to understand the future itself as predictable, yet still uncertain.","brand":"The University of Chicago Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49400033476951,"sku":"9780226475004","price":37.05,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780226475004.jpg?v=1730469505"},{"product_id":"business-cycles-theory-history-indicators-forecasting-theory-history-indicators-and-forecasting-27-nber-national-bureau-of-economic-research-business-cycles-9780226978901","title":"Business Cycles  Theory History Indicators","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eAcknowledgments  Preface  I: Theories and Evidence  1: Macroeconomics and Business Cycles: An Overview  2: Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective  3: Facts and Factors in the Modern Evolution of U.S. Economic Fluctuations  4: Cyclical Aspects of Cost and Price Movements  5: Research during the First 50 Years of the National Bureau  II: History and Measurement  6: How Trends and Fluctuations Are Observed, Modeled, and Simulated: An Introduction  7: Business Cycles and Growth  8: The Regularity of Business Cycles  9: Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyclical Characteristics of the Economy  III: Indicators  10: Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses  11: Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators  12: Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes Phillip Braun  IV: Forecasting  13: On Short-Term Predictions of General Economic Conditions  14: An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Aggregate Forecasts  15: The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts  16: Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts  17: Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction Louis A. Lambros  18: The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting  References  Author Index  Subject Index","brand":"The University of Chicago Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49400154816855,"sku":"9780226978901","price":125.4,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780226978901.jpg?v=1730469901"},{"product_id":"on-trend-9780252042874","title":"On Trend","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"If you think hot trends just whirl up like dust storms, think again: This fascinating book pulls the curtain back on an entire industry devoted to shaping our perceptions of what matters—and with it, the future itself.\"—Fred Turner, author of \u003ci\u003eThe Democratic Surround: Multimedia and American Liberalism from World War II to the Psychedelic Sixties\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e   \"\u003ci\u003eOn Trend\u003c\/i\u003e is wide-ranging, yet it holds together through a fusion of scholarly reconstruction and engaged critique. Such a combination is often intended but seldom so well executed.\" --Scott McLemee, \u003ci\u003eInside Higher Ed\u003c\/i\u003e","brand":"University of Illinois Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49400447533399,"sku":"9780252042874","price":77.35,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780252042874.jpg?v=1730470705"},{"product_id":"on-trend-9780252084690","title":"On Trend","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"If you think hot trends just whirl up like dust storms, think again: This fascinating book pulls the curtain back on an entire industry devoted to shaping our perceptions of what matters—and with it, the future itself.\"—Fred Turner, author of \u003ci\u003eThe Democratic Surround: Multimedia and American Liberalism from World War II to the Psychedelic Sixties\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e   \"\u003ci\u003eOn Trend\u003c\/i\u003e is wide-ranging, yet it holds together through a fusion of scholarly reconstruction and engaged critique. Such a combination is often intended but seldom so well executed.\" --Scott McLemee, \u003ci\u003eInside Higher Ed\u003c\/i\u003e","brand":"University of Illinois Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49400514019671,"sku":"9780252084690","price":15.19,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780252084690.jpg?v=1730470867"},{"product_id":"stumbling-giant-9780300205329","title":"Stumbling Giant","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhile dozens of books and articles have predicted the near-certainty of China's rise to global supremacy, this book boldly counters such widely-held assumptions. It brings to light the daunting array of challenges that today confront China, as well as the inadequacy of the responses.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"'Timothy Beardson is a brilliant entrepreneur and investment strategist and his observations about China are sobering - and a must-read for the well-informed.' (Steve Forbes, Chairman and Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media) 'A thoughtful reconsideration of China's actual place in the new world order, based on reality rather than fanciful speculation.' (Kirkus Reviews)\"","brand":"Yale University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49401529925975,"sku":"9780300205329","price":16.14,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780300205329.jpg?v=1730477710"},{"product_id":"forecasting-9780300244663","title":"Forecasting","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e“As an introduction to forecasting for those interested in how economists typically think about forecasting, this book is excellent. Although framed as a non-technical introduction to forecasting, even experienced forecasters and econometricians would find joy in reading it.”—Leif Anders Thorsrud,\u003ci\u003e Economic Record\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e“For a non-technical guide to economic forecasting, there could be nothing better than \u003ci\u003eForecasting: An Essential Introduction\u003c\/i\u003e by Jennifer Castle, Michael Clements and David Hendry. It is a crystal clear and intuitive explanation of what macroeconomic forecasts can and can’t do” – \u003ci\u003eThe Enlightened Economist\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"Very welcome and much needed.\" — Philip Hans Franses\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"A tidy and beautiful introduction to opportunities, pitfalls, and new directions in economic forecasting, reflecting the distilled wisdom of researchers at the frontier of their field.\" — Professor Francis X. Diebold, author of \u003ci\u003eElements of Forecasting\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"It's a topsy-turvy world, but we all must have a view on where it is headed: from the business owner hiring a new employee to the renter becoming a homeowner. Of course, there are accurate forecasts and off-base ones. \u003ci\u003eForecasting \u003c\/i\u003emay not turn you into Warren Buffet, but it will ensure that you avoid a forecasting blunder.\" — Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics and author of \u003ci\u003eFinancial Shock \u003c\/i\u003eand \u003ci\u003ePaying the Price\u003c\/i\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"Yale University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49401555321175,"sku":"9780300244663","price":18.99,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780300244663.jpg?v=1730477786"},{"product_id":"radical-uncertainty-9780349143996","title":"Radical Uncertainty","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis ambitious and thought-provoking new work offers an overarching analysis of decision-making in all walks of life.","brand":"Little, Brown Book Group","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49401853051223,"sku":"9780349143996","price":12.34,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780349143996.jpg?v=1730478696"},{"product_id":"future-ready-9780470747056","title":"Future Ready","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe recent crisis in the financial markets has exposed serious flaws in management methods. The failure to anticipate and deal with the consequences of the unfolding collapse has starkly illustrated what many leaders and managers in business have known for years; in most organizations, the process of forecasting is badly broken.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eTable of Figures xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeword xiii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePreface xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAcknowledgements xxv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSection 1 ‘Why?’ 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 1 Part 1 Why Change? Everyone Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 1 Part 2 Forecasting Disease, the Symptoms and the Remedy 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSection 2 Principles 33\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 2 Mastering Purpose – the Cassandra Paradox 35\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 3 Mastering Time – Delay and Decision 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 4 Mastering Models: Mapping the Future 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 5 Mastering Measurement – Learning to Love Error 125\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 6 Mastering Risks: How the Paranoid Survive 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSection 3 ‘Praxis’ 179\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 7 Mastering Process: The Mother of Good Fortune 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTheme #1 Recipe for success: tips and traps 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTheme #2 Coordination in a complex system: how different can we be? 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTheme #3 ‘Whose job is it anyway?’ Roles and responsibilities 210\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eSection 4 Transformation 219\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 8 Implementation: Beginnings and Endings 221\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 9 Beyond Forecasting: The Biggest Barrier 233\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 10 Beyond Budgeting: A New Management Model? 243\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChapter 11 Conclusion: Reconnection 257\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlossary 261\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 1 – Design Principles: A Summary 267\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 2 – Important Concepts in Systems and Cybernetics 275\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences 289\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 295\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49402424820055,"sku":"9780470747056","price":18.69,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780470747056.jpg?v=1730480359"},{"product_id":"applied-time-series-modelling-and-forecasting-9780470844434","title":"Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe text has been thoroughly updated to incorporate recent developments and includes three major new chapters on: time series modelling in the financial economics area, the Harvey approach to structural time series modelling and cointegration, and panel data models and non--stationary time series.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePreface.  \u003cp\u003e1. Introduction and Overview.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSome Initial Concepts.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOutline of the Book.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. Short- and Long-run Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLong-run Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStationary and Non-stationary Time Series.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSpurious Regressions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCointegration.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eShort-run Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. Testing for Unit Roots.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Dickey–Fuller Test.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAugmented Dickey–Fuller Test.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePower and Level of Unit Root Tests.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Breaks and Unit Root Tests.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeasonal Unit Roots.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Breaks and Seasonal Unit Root Tests.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePeriodic Integration and Unit Root-testing.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion on Unit Root Tests.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. Cointegration in Single Equations.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Engle–Granger (EG) Approach.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting for Cointegration with a Structural Break.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlternative Approaches.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProblems with the Single Equation Approach.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating the Short-run Dynamic Model.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeasonal Cointegration.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePeriodic Cointegration.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAsymmetric Tests for Cointegration.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion s.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. Cointegration in Multivariate Systems.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Johansen Approach.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting the Order of Integration of the Variables.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFormulation of the Dynamic Model.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting for Reduced Rank.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeterministic Components in the Multivariate Model.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting of Weak Exogeneity and VECM with Exogenous \u003ci\u003eI\u003c\/i\u003e (l) Variables.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting for Linear Hypotheses on Cointegration Relations.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting for Unique Cointegration Vectors.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eJoint Tests of Restrictions on \u003cb\u003eα\u003c\/b\u003e and \u003cb\u003eβ\u003c\/b\u003e Seasonal Unit Roots.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeasonal Cointegration.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusions.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix 1: Programming in \u003ci\u003eSHAZAM.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. Modelling the Short-run Multivariate System.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating the Long-run Cointegration Relationships.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eParsimonious VECM.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConditional PVECM.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Modelling.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStructural Macroeconomic Modelling.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7. Panel Data Models and Cointegration.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePanel Data and Modelling Techniques.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePanel Unit Root Tests.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTesting for Cointegration in Panels.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimating Panel Cointegration Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion on Testing for Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panel Data.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Times Series.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eARCH and GARCH.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMultivariate GARCH.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEstimation and Testing.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Empirical Application of ARCH and GARCH Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eARCH-M.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAsymmetric GARCH Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntegrated and Fractionally Integrated GARCH Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConditional Heteroscedasticity, Unit Roots and Cointegration.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForecasting with GARCH Models.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Methods for Forecast Evaluation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusions on Modelling and Forecasting Financial Time Series.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAppendix: Cointegration Analysis Using the Johansen Technique: A Practitioner’s Guide to \u003ci\u003ePcGive 10.1.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistical Appendix.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49402436125015,"sku":"9780470844434","price":51.25,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780470844434.jpg?v=1730480390"},{"product_id":"technical-analysis-study-guide-9780471123545","title":"Technical Analysis Study Guide","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe definitive guide to technical analysis... written from a trader's perspective  With the keen insight and perspective that have made him a market legend, Jack D. Schwager explores, explains, and examines the application of technical analysis in futures trading.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePartial table of contents:\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e CHART ANALYSIS.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Charts: Forecasting Tool or Folklore?\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Trends.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Trading Ranges.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Chart Patterns.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Is Chart Analysis Still Valid?\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Setting Objectives and Other Position Exit Criteria.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Linking Contracts for Long-Term Chart Analysis: Nearest Versus Continuous Futures.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e REAL-WORLD CHART ANALYSIS.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Real-World Chart Analysis.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e OSCILLATORS AND CYCLES.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Cycle Analysis of the Futures Markets (R. Mogey \u0026amp; J. Schwager).\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e TRADING SYSTEMS AND PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Examples of Original Trading Systems.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Testing and Optimizing Trading Systems.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e PRACTICAL TRADING GUIDELINES.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Eighty-Two Trading Rules and Market Observations.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Index.","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49402492354903,"sku":"9780471123545","price":37.5,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780471123545.jpg?v=1730480574"},{"product_id":"market-magic-9780471197591","title":"Market Magic","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eShe''s been compared to a beacon shining through the fog. Her thorough research, meticulous analyses, and extraordinarily accurate forecasts have won her the respect and admiration of colleagues up and down the Street. A protégée of the master technical analyst Alan Shaw, she is currently Senior Technical Analyst, Vice President for Research at Salomon Smith Barney. But what some insiders remember most about Louise Yamada is that in 1994 she was among the very first to predict the greatest bull market of the twentieth century.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e In Market Magic, Louise Yamada shares her formidable skills to look beyond the daily noise of trading and help guide your investments through the perils and uncertainties of the next ten years. At a time when classical forecasting techniques seem to be failing us and even the professionals are at a loss as to which way the markets will go, Yamada marshals her experience and talent to offer on-target analyses of today''s macro forces and specific trend fo\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"In analyzing the current bull market, you can miss the forest for the trees unless you take a step back and look at the big picture, writes Louise Yamada in MARKET MAGIC. And that's exactly what Yamada does in this book-she conducts an in-depth analysis of the current market.\"-Registered Representative\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \"Few on Wall Street can match Louise Yamada for analytical ability as well as insight on the big issues affecting investors. We are fortunate she is willing to share the results of her thoughts and research with us.\"-Mark Haines, CNBC\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \"Louise Yamada has a special talent for anticipating future financial trends. Market Magic is a must read for investors as we prepare for the exciting decade ahead.\" -David Cork, F.C.S.I., author of The Pig and the Python: How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e \"Market Magic demystifies the voodoo of technical analysis and relates technical indicators to the real world of stocks and bonds and demographic and economic trends worldwide.\"-Oscar S. Schafer, General Partner, Cumberland Associates; Member, Barron's Roundtable\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTHE EVOLUTION OF DISCOVERY: TECHNICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF THE GREATEST BULL MARKET OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e U.S. Bull Market Extension? There Is Historic Precedent.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Two-Tier Market Thesis.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Recent History\/Market Projections.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e NEW HORIZONS FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Changing Demographics.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Demographics and the Stock Market.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Long-Wave Cycle: A Brief Consideration.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The New Technological Era: Observations and Conceptual Thoughts.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Old-Tech and New-Tech: Need for New Sectors.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Revisiting the Capital\/Consumer Ratio.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e New Agricultural Direction for the United States.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e UNSCRAMBLING THE PUZZLES.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Asking Questions.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e New Economic Perceptions.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Stock Market Implications and Expectations.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e CONCLUSION.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e What Lies Ahead: Other Emerging Forces at Work.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Notes.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Index.","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49402525221207,"sku":"9780471197591","price":34.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780471197591.jpg?v=1730480667"},{"product_id":"market-magic-9780471383680","title":"Market Magic","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWall Street insiders have long respected Louise Yamada for her extraordinarily accurate predictions and for the meticulously researched reports that are the foundation of her forecasting methods. In this book she reveals the secrets behind her market predictions and analysis.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eTHE EVOLUTION OF DISCOVERY: TECHNICAL UNDERPINNINGS OF THE GREATEST BULL MARKET OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e U.S. Bull Market Extension? There Is Historic Precedent.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Two-Tier Market Thesis.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Recent History\/Market Projections.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e NEW HORIZONS FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Changing Demographics.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Demographics and the Stock Market.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The Long-Wave Cycle: A Brief Consideration.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e The New Technological Era: Observations and Conceptual Thoughts.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Old-Tech and New-Tech: Need for New Sectors.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Revisiting the Capital\/Consumer Ratio.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e New Agricultural Direction for the United States.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e UNSCRAMBLING THE PUZZLES.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Asking Questions.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e New Economic Perceptions.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Stock Market Implications and Expectations.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e CONCLUSION.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e What Lies Ahead: Other Emerging Forces at Work.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Notes.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Index.","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49402579255639,"sku":"9780471383680","price":20.39,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780471383680.jpg?v=1730480831"},{"product_id":"quantitative-analysis-in-marketing-management-9780471964308","title":"Quantitative Analysis in Marketing Management","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThis text brings together the key quantitative concepts and techniques which are central for the contemporary management of the marketing function. It also examines techniques drawn from other management disciplines, such as financial management.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eSTATISTICAL ANALYSIS, DEMAND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING IN MARKETING.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Data Collection and Sampling.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Further Statistical Techniques.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Demand Analysis.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Forecasting.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e FINANCIAL ANALYSIS, OPERATIONS AND CONTROL SYSTEMS.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Financial Techniques.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Budgeting and Control.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Decision Techniques.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Operations Management.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e FUTURE TRENDS AND CONCLUSION.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Future Trends.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Conclusion.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Appendices.\u003cbr\u003e \u003cbr\u003e Index.","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49402696663383,"sku":"9780471964308","price":56.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780471964308.jpg?v=1730481266"},{"product_id":"the-consolations-of-economics-9780571307791","title":"The Consolations of Economics","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eIn the next twenty years the world economy will enjoy one of its strongest periods of growth.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOpportunities, life expectancy, income and educational standards will all rise.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe West's share of the global economic cake may get smaller, but there will be more cake than ever before.\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThese are the predictions of Gerard Lyons, a leading international economist who spent nearly thirty years working in the City. Over the last quarter-century he has been ahead of the game in predicting the major economic trends that we now take as a given. In \u003ci\u003eThe Consolations of Economics\u003c\/i\u003e, Gerard Lyons presents a lucid and accessible approach to what is happening in the global economy and what it means. The results are fascinating, refreshing -- and unusually cheering.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Faber \u0026 Faber","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403102265687,"sku":"9780571307791","price":10.44,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780571307791.jpg?v=1730482411"},{"product_id":"on-the-edge-9780593833322","title":"On the Edge","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"Penguin Putnam Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403335180631,"sku":"9780593833322","price":16.8,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780593833322.jpg?v=1730483150"},{"product_id":"service-industries-in-the-world-economy-9780631181323","title":"Service Industries in the World Economy","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe geography of services is no longer of local or national significance: it now embraces the international stage. Service industries have enabled, and themselves become participants in, world trade. Although this is not a new role, during the 1980s they have become a much more active ingredient in the process of social and economic change.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"The book's value lies in its wide-sweeping survey of what is known about the entire field... a very useinformative book that can serve as a text for economic geographers, but which also deserves to be read by those with international interests from other disciplines. His work demonstrates that economic geographers have much to contribute in this area, especially in their handling and analysis of the data on international services.\" \u003ci\u003eService Industries Journal\u003c\/i\u003e  \u003cp\u003e\"The book's value lies in its wide-sweeping survey of what is known about the entire field... a very useful classroom tool for those concerned with exposing students to a critical area of investigation that remains under-researched.\" \u003ci\u003eJournal of Economic Literature\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e1. The Rise of Services: Some Factual and Theoretical Perspectives. \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eServices: Definition and Classification.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Recent Expansion of Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eExplanations for Growth.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnderstatement of Role of Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. The Tradability of Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTRadable and Non-Tradable Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInformation Technology and Tradability of Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTransport Technology and the Tradability of Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eService Multinationals and the Tradability of Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCase Studies of the Development of Service MNE'S.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRetail Internationalisation.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGovernment Influences on the Tradability of Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChanges in Consumer Requirements and Expectations.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIntroduction.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeasuring Trade in Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn Outline of Global Trade in Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Role of Comparative Advantage.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eForeign Direct Investment in Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInternational Trade in Services and the Developing Countries.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeveloping Country Service MNE's.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEastern Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States and International Trade in Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eLiberalizing International Trade in Services.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. Services and the Global System of Cities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eServices and the Global Urban System: Some Explanations.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eServices and Cities in the Global Urban System.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eServices and the Global Urban System: Some Examples.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. Internationalization of Services and Restructuring of Cities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eServices and Employment Restructuring in Large Metropolitan Areas: Some Comparisons.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpacts on the Urban Property Market: Offices.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eChanges in the Location of Services Within Cities.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. Services in the World Economy: Some Reflections.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eServices in the 1990s: Victims of the Decade of Optimism?.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eService-Dominated Economies: How Desirable?.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIs the Globalization of Services inevitable?.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnfulfilled Potential of Telecommunications?.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eReferences.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurther Reading.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBibliography.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley and Sons Ltd","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403395146071,"sku":"9780631181323","price":37.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780631181323.jpg?v=1730483335"},{"product_id":"new-directions-in-regulatory-theory-9780631235651","title":"New Directions in Regulatory Theory","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIn this prestigious edited collection, an international group of leading contributors to the law of regulation take stock of the erosion of belief in centralised planning and command and control regulation which has accompanied the collapse of communism. They explore the new directions in regulatory theory which must now be pursued.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIntroduction: Reconceptualizing Regulation in the Era of Globalization: \u003ci\u003eSol Picciotto.\u003c\/i\u003e \u003cp\u003e1. Rewards and Regulation: \u003ci\u003eJohn Braithwaite.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2. Values and Purpose in Government: Central-local Relations in Regulatory Perspective: \u003ci\u003ePeter Vincent-Jones.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3. Private Regulation of the Public Sector: A Neglected Facet of Contemporary Governance: \u003ci\u003eColin Scott\u003c\/i\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4. Using Private-Public Linkages to Regulate Environmental Conflicts: The Case of International Construction Contracts: \u003ci\u003eOren Perez.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5. Competition Law in the International Domain: Networks as a New Form of Governance: \u003ci\u003eImelda Maher.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6. Technical Cooperation and the International Coordination of Patentability of Biotechnological Inventions: \u003ci\u003eLouise Davies.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7. Regulatory Conversations. \u003ci\u003eJulia Black.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8. The Emotional Dimension in Legal Regulation: \u003ci\u003eBettina Lange.\u003c\/i\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley and Sons Ltd","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403460321623,"sku":"9780631235651","price":23.75,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780631235651.jpg?v=1730483539"},{"product_id":"anticipating-correlations-9780691116419","title":"Anticipating Correlations","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIntroduces an important method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). This title demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"No doubt much more literature will develop in this area. Professor Engle has done a service by laying out how his mind is moving and thinking at the current time.\"--Peter Tompkins, The Actuary\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eIntroduction vii      Chapter 1: Correlation Economics 1  1.1 Introduction 1  1.2 How Big Are Correlations? 3  1.3 The Economics of Correlations 6  1.4 An Economic Model of Correlations 9  1.5 Additional Influences on Correlations 13      Chapter 2: Correlations in Theory 15  2.1 Conditional Correlations 15  2.2 Copulas 17  2.3 Dependence Measures 21  2.4 On the Value of Accurate Correlations 25      Chapter 3: Models for Correlation 29  3.1 The Moving Average and the Exponential Smoother 30  3.2 Vector GARCH 32  3.3 Matrix Formulations and Results for Vector GARCH 33  3.4 Constant Conditional Correlation 37  3.5 Orthogonal GARCH 37  3.6 Dynamic Conditional Correlation 39  3.7 Alternative Approaches and Expanded Data Sets 41      Chapter 4: Dynamic Conditional Correlation 43  4.1 DE-GARCHING 43  4.2 Estimating the Quasi-Correlations 45  4.3 Rescaling in DCC 48  4.4 Estimation of the DCC Model 55      Chapter 5: DCC Performance 59  5.1 Monte Carlo Performance of DCC 59  5.2 Empirical Performance 61  Chapter 6: The MacGyver Method 74  Chapter 7: Generalized DCC Models 80  7.1 Theoretical Specification 80  7.2 Estimating Correlations for Global Stock and Bond Returns 83      Chapter 8: FACTOR DCC 88  8.1 Formulation of Factor Versions of DCC 88  8.2 Estimation of Factor Models 93      Chapter 9: Anticipating Correlations 103  9.1 Forecasting 103  9.2 Long-Run Forecasting 108  9.3 Hedging Performance In-Sample 111  9.4 Out-of-Sample Hedging 112  9.5 Forecasting Risk in the Summer of 2007 117      Chapter 10: Credit Risk and Correlations 122  Chapter 11: Econometric Analysis of the DCC Model 130  11.1 Variance Targeting 130  11.2 Correlation Targeting 131  11.3 Asymptotic Distribution of DCC 134  Chapter 12: Conclusions 137      References 141  Index 151","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403730657623,"sku":"9780691116419","price":51.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780691116419.jpg?v=1730484378"},{"product_id":"banking-on-the-future-the-fall-and-rise-of-central-banking-9780691138640","title":"Banking on the Future  The Fall and Rise of","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe crash of 2008 revealed that the world's central banks had failed to offset the financial imbalances that led to the crisis, and lacked the tools to respond effectively. This title provides an insider's look into how central banks have evolved and why they are critical to the functioning of market economies.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eNamed one of Financial Times (FT.com)'s Books of the Year in Nonfiction Round-Up in the Business \u0026amp; Economics list for 2010 \"[T]he depth of its analysis will make Banking on the Future an important source of insights for years to come.\"--Ed Crooks, Financial Times \"The best assessment yet of the role played by the leading western central banks--the U.S. Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England--in the run-up to the financial crisis and beyond, from two former insiders at the top level of UK policymaker.\"--Financial Times (FT Critics Pick 2010) \"Buy the book with confidence.\"--Jane Fuller, Financial World \"Books on central banking usually vie with pills as sleep inducers, but Banking on the Future: The Fall and Rise of Central Banking is actually a page-turner.\"--Andrew Allentuck, National Post \"In this forensic and engaging overview, Susan Hough presents a frank, entertaining and personal review of the history of ideas, practice, personalities and experience in the science of earthquake prediction. Although Hough is a respected scientist, she takes a journalist's viewpoint here, not shying away from legitimate criticism of those she regards as friends, and taking on the credulous at the edge of, or even beyond, the mainstream scientific.\"--Ian Main, Times Higher Education \"[A] valuable, accessible volume... This clear, nontechnical guide on the present and future of central banking from two eminent policy makers could not have come at a better time.\"--Choice \"A better title for this book would have been: All You Ever Wanted to Know About Central Banking and More... Davies and Green provide much to inform and interest diverse audiences...[I]t's a book that practitioners and students of central banking need to have on their shelf.\"--Management Today \"We get an insider's view of the nuts and bolts of central banking, but not so inside that the authors are uncritical. They readily identify the pressure to change regulations or advice when regulators feel under pressure to display expertise in new issues... These are snippets of insight that only critical insiders know how to capture.\"--Dick Bryan, Australian Review of Public Affairs\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePreface vii  Abbreviations ix  Introduction 1  Chapter One: What Is Central Banking and Why Is It Important? 9  Chapter Two: Monetary Stability 23  Chapter Three: Financial Stability 52  Chapter Four: Financial Infrastructure 90  Chapter Five: Asset Prices 115  Chapter Six: Structure, Status, and Accountability 141  Chapter Seven: Europe: A Special Case 182  Chapter Eight: Central Banking in Emerging Market Countries 212  Chapter Nine: Financial Resources, Costs, and Efficiency 236  Chapter Ten: International Cooperation 252  Chapter Eleven: Leadership 270  Chapter Twelve: An Agenda for Change 285  Afterword 297  Notes 301  Index 317","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403763851607,"sku":"9780691138640","price":49.5,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780691138640.jpg?v=1730484470"},{"product_id":"fortune-tellers-9780691169194","title":"Fortune Tellers","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWinner of the 2015 Hagley Prize in Business History, Hagley Museum and Library and Business History Conference \"[C]arefully wrought.\"--James Grant, Wall Street Journal \"The book is a great read, based as it is around the personalities of these early forecasters... I can see a terrific movie in the 'forecasting wars' of the 1920s as these larger-than-life, quintessentially can-do Americans competed with each other to call the stock market, win followers and make a fortune.\"--Diane Coyle, Enlightened Economist blog \"Fortune Tellers is a marvel too. It is scholarship of the highest quality, without shortcuts or gimmicks. We may not be able to trust the forecasters, but when it comes to their stories we are in excellent hands.\"--Pietra Rivoli, Financial Times \"Friedman's well-crafted work is highly recommended to students of economics and others interested in the history of economic forecasting.\"--Library Journal \"[Fortune Tellers] ... reminds readers that the economy remains too complex for anyone to consistently make reliable predictions about it.\"--Alan Wallace, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review \"In Fortune Tellers, Walter Friedman shows not only where our contemporary forecasting ecosystem came from, but also its considerable influence on present-day economic thought and practice.\"--Michael Lind, Pacific Standard \"The book is fun reading, but what makes it especially interesting for any regular consumer of modern economic forecasts is how little today's forecasters have improved on the methods of the 1910s and 1920s.\"--Justin Fox, Harvard Business Review blog \"In a series of short biographical narratives of the first men to take up forecasting as a profession, Friedman shows how economic predictions became an integral part of the way businessmen and government officials made decisions, and how the foundations were laid for the kind of sophisticated economic modeling that we now rely on.\"--James Surowiecki, Democracy \"Historian Friedman examines how forecasting economic performance became professionalized in the early 20th century. He adeptly and insightfully uses a biographical approach, with five case studies selected because of their contemporary significance and because each analyst understood the logic of capitalism differently and took a different approach to forecasting.\"--Choice \"Fortune Tellers is an engaging account of the beginnings of the vibrant industry of American economic forecasting.\"--George A. Schade, Financial History \"The value of Friedman's book isn't just in the brief biographies ... but also in Friedman's insights and asides about the business, financial and political context of the time. Friedman doesn't mention it, but few readers will miss the implicit comparison to today.\"--Randolph Walerius, Roll Call \"There is no better way to gain an understanding of how economic forecasting began than reading Walter A. Friedman's new book Fortune Tellers... It shines a light on the entrepreneurs like Roger Babson and John Moody who created the economic forecasting field a century ago and transformed it into successful businesses.\"--James McCusker, Everett Herald \"[C]aptivating story... Compelling.\"--Michael A. Martorelli, Financial Analysts Journal \"Prof. Friedman ... writes smoothly and wisely.\"--Books Delights \"The author has done a most remarkable job in bringing together these ideas and histories in a graceful and fascinating book.\"--E. Roy Weintraub, Journal of American History \"This is beyond doubt a fascinating and enjoyable book.\"--Geoffrey Wood, Central Banking Journal \"Friedman's fascinating study ... makes a major contribution towards the history of forecasting in the USA. Friedman's case studies present competing but ultimately convergent paths to modern forecasting, highlighting a history which comprised what he identifies as five world views of the future.\"--Roger Middleton, European Journal of History of Economic Thought \"Friedman notes some long-lasting contributions of these pioneers and credits them with inspiring succeeding generations of forecasters who may or may not have raised the art to a science. Readers who struggle with that question will appreciate this entertaining look at the predecessors of the analysts whose views they probably seek almost every day.\"--M.A.M., Financial Analysts Journal \"This is one of the best books that I have read over the last number of years. It is very readable and, like all good books, exceptionally thought-provoking. Economic and business historians, economists, and anyone who has an interest in the history of economic thought will benefit from reading this book. Students, policy-makers, and investors would also benefit from reading it because it highlights the complexity of capitalism, how difficult it is to understand the capitalist system, and the foolishness of placing too much weight on economic forecasts. Bottom line: buy, read, and digest this book. Let me finish my review with a forecast based solely on intuition: Fortune Tellers will become a classic.\"--John D. Turner, Economic History Review \"Friedman's business-history approach goes well beyond the history of economic and scientific thought. His collection of portraits has a lot to say for our current times, now that the dictionary of the 1930s (depression, deflation, mass unemployment) has resurfaced everywhere but particularly in the richest countries in the world.\"--Francesco Daveri, Journal of Economics \"In his book Friedman has been able to cast a substantial contribution to the history of economics in an entertaining, very readable approach.\"--Roman Koster, History of Economics Ideas \"The book deserves to be widely read.\"--Roger E. Backhouse, Technology \u0026amp; Culture \"A fascinating story of the early economic forecasting in the United States... A pleasure to read and the narrative is both informative and insightful. I highly recommend it to both economists and non-economists.\"--Aris Spanos, Journal of the History of Economic Thought\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePreface ix Introduction 1 Chapter 1 Roger W. Babson: The Rule of Past Patterns 12 \"The fundamental law of 'action reaction' \" Chapter 2 Irving Fisher: The Economy as a Mathematical Model 51 \"The velocity of money\" Chapter 3 John Moody: The Bright Light of Transparency 86 \"An aggregation of over 440 large industrial, franchise and transportation Trusts\" Gallery of Business and Forecasting Charts Chapter 4 C. J. Bullock and Warren Persons: The Harvard ABC Chart 128 \"The statistician ... attempts to find a specific analogy existing in an orderly universe\" Chapter 5 Wesley Mitchell and Herbert Hoover: Forecasting as Policy 166 \"If we could foresee the business cycle, there would be none\" Chapter 6 Visions of the Future 194 Postscript 209 Acknowledgments 213 Notes 217 Index 261","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403824144727,"sku":"9780691169194","price":18.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780691169194.jpg?v=1730484650"},{"product_id":"why-stock-markets-crash-9780691175959","title":"Why Stock Markets Crash","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\"While it's difficult to pinpoint what type of trader would enjoy this book the most, I think there's something for everyone, whether you're a quaint, technical trader or a fundamentalist... I feel that I'm smarter after finishing this book; I thoroughly enjoyed the lengthy journey, and would recommend this to any stock market enthusiast.\"--Jeff Pierce, Seeking Alpha \"A highly recommended, enjoyable, well-researched, and thought-provoking book for anyone interested in stock markets and the modeling of financial processes.\"--Rick Gorvett, Journal of Risk and Insurance \"The book is written in a readable style and does not require technical knowledge. Any reader interested in a serious approach to the origin and possible prediction of financial bubbles will enjoy reading it.\"--Josep M. Porra, Journal of Statistical Physics \"Sornette's book is not just about finance and economics; it is also a mesmerizing introduction to game theory, fractals, catastrophe theory, critical phenomena, and much more. No prior knowledge of finance or economics is needed to understand the book... Throughout the book, Sornette makes numerous, vivid comparisons with many other fields in which the various mathematical tools he describes can be applied.\"--Frank Cuypers, Physics Today\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003ePreface to the Princeton Science Library Edition xiii  Preface to the 2002 Edition xix  1 Financial crashes: what, how, why, and when? 3  What Are Crashes, and Why Do We Care? 3  The Crash of October 1987 5  Historical Crashes 7  The Tulip Mania 7  The South Sea Bubble 9  The Great Crash of October 1929 12  Extreme Events in Complex Systems 15  Is Prediction Possible? A Working Hypothesis 20  2 Fundamentals of financial markets 26  The Basics 27  Price Trajectories 27  Return Trajectories 30  Return Distributions and Return Correlation 33  The Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Random Walk 38  The Random Walk 38  A Parable: How Information Is Incorporated in Prices, Thus Destroying Potential \"Free Lunches\" 42  Prices Are Unpredictable, or Are They? 45  Risk-Return Trade-Off 47  3 Financial crashes are \"outliers\" 49  What Are \"Abnormal\" Returns? 49  Drawdowns (Runs) 51  Definition of Drawdowns 51  Drawdowns and the Detection of \"Outliers\" 54  Expected Distribution of \"Normal\" Drawdowns 56  Drawdown Distributions of Stock Market Indices 60  The Dow Jones Industrial Average 60  The Nasdaq Composite Index 62  Further Tests 65  The Presence of Outliers Is a General Phenomenon 69  Main Stock Market Indices, Currencies, and Gold 70  Largest U.S. Companies 73  Synthesis 75  Symmetry-Breaking on Crash and Rally Days 76  Implications for Safety Regulations of Stock Markets 77  4 Positive feedbacks 81  Feedbacks and Self-Organization in Economics 82  Hedging Derivatives, Insurance Portfolios, and Rational Panics 89  \"Herd\" Behavior and \"Crowd\" Effect 91  Behavioral Economics 91  Herding 94  Empirical Evidence of Financial Analysts' Herding 96  Forces of Imitation 99  It Is Optimal to Imitate When Lacking Information 99  Mimetic Contagion and the Urn Models 104  Imitation from Evolutionary Psychology 106  Rumors 108  The Survival of the Fittest Idea 111  Gambling Spirits 112  \"Anti-Imitation\" and Self-Organization 114  Why It May Pay to Be in the Minority 114  El-Farol's Bar Problem 115  Minority Games 117  Imitation versus Contrarian Behavior 118  Cooperative Behaviors Resulting from Imitation 121  The Ising Model of Cooperative Behavior 122  Complex Evolutionary Adaptive Systems of Boundedly Rational Agents 130  5 Modeling financial bubbles and market crashes 134  What Is a Model? 134  Strategy for Model Construction in Finance 135  Basic Principles 135  The Principle of Absence of Arbitrage Opportunity 136  Existence of Rational Agents 137  \"Rational Bubbles\" and Goldstone Modes of the Price \"Parity Symmetry\" Breaking 139  Price Parity Symmetry 140  Speculation as Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking 144  Basic Ingredients of the Two Models 148  The Risk-Driven Model 150  Summary of the Main Properties of the Model 150  The Crash Hazard Rate Drives the Market Price 152  Imitation and Herding Drive the Crash Hazard Rate 155  The Price-Driven Model 162  Imitation and Herding Drive the Market Price 162  The Price Return Drives the Crash Hazard Rate 164  Risk-Driven versus Price-Driven Models 168  6 Hierarchies, complex fractal dimensions, and log-periodicity 171  Critical Phenomena by Imitation on Hierarchical Networks 173  The Underlying Hierarchical Structure of Social Networks 173  Critical Behavior in Hierarchical Networks 177  A Hierarchical Model of Financial Bubbles 181  Origin of Log-Periodicity in Hierarchical Systems 186  Discrete Scale Invariance 186  Fractal Dimensions 188  Organization Scale by Scale: The Renormalization Group 192  Principle and Illustration of the Renormalization Group 192  The Fractal Weierstrass Function: A Singular Time-Dependent Solution of the Renormalization Group 195  Complex Fractal Dimensions and Log-Periodicity 198  Importance and Usefulness of Discrete Scale Invariance 208  Existence of Relevant LengthScales 208  Prediction 209  Scenarios Leading to Discrete Scale Invariance and Log-Periodicity 210  Newcomb-Benford Law of First Digits and the Arithmetic System 211  The Log-Periodic Law of the Evolution of Life? 213  Nonlinear Trend-Following versus Nonlinear Fundamental Analysis Dynamics 217  Trend Following: Positive Nonlinear Feedback and Finite-Time Singularity 218  Reversal to the Fundamental Value: Negative Nonlinear Feedback 220  Some Characteristics of the Price Dynamics of the Nonlinear Dynamical Model 223  7 Autopsy of major crashes: universal exponents and logperiodicity 228  The Crash of October 1987 228  Precursory Pattern 231  Aftershock Patterns 236  The Crash of October 1929 239  The Three Hong Kong Crashes of 1987, 1994, and 1997 242  The Hong Kong Crashes 242  The Crash of October 1997 and Its Resonance on the U.S. Market 246  Currency Crashes 254  The Crash of August 1998 259  Nonparametric Test of Log-Periodicity 263  The Slow Crash of 1962 Ending the \"Tronics\" Boom 266  The Nasdaq Crash of April 2000 269  \"Antibubbles\" 275  The \"Bearish\" Regime on the Nikkei Starting from January 1, 1990 276  The Gold Deflation Price Starting in Mid-1980 278  Synthesis: \"Emergent\" Behavior of the Stock Market 279  8 Bubbles, crises, and crashes in emergent markets 281  Speculative Bubbles in Emerging Markets 281  Methodology 285  Latin-American Markets 286  Asian Markets 295  The Russian Stock Market 304  Correlations across Markets: Economic Contagion and Synchronization of Bubble Collapse 309  Implications for Mitigations of Crises 314  9 Prediction of bubbles, crashes, and antibubbles 320  The Nature of Predictions 320  How to Develop and Interpret Statistical Tests of Log-Periodicity 325  First Guidelines for Prediction 329  What Is the Predictive Power of Equation (15)? 329  How Long Prior to a Crash Can One Identify the Log-Periodic Signatures? 330  A Hierarchy of Prediction Schemes 334  The Simple Power Law 334  The \"Linear\" Log-Periodic Formula 335  The \"Nonlinear\" Log-Periodic Formula 336  The Shank's Transformation on a Hierarchy of Characteristic Times 336  Application to the October 1929 Crash 337  Application to the October 1987 Crash 338  Forward Predictions 338  Successful Prediction of the Nikkei 1999 Antibubble 339  Successful Prediction of the Nasdaq Crash of April 2000 342  The U.S. Market, December 1997 False Alarm 342  The U.S. Market, October 1999 False Alarm 346  Present Status of Forward Predictions 346  The Finite Probability That No Crash Will Occur during a Bubble 346  Estimation of the Statistical Significance of the Forward Predictions 347  Statistical Confidence of the Crash\"Roulette\" 347  Statistical Significance of a Single Successful Prediction via Bayes's Theorem 349  The Error Diagram and the Decision Process 351  Practical Implications on Different Trading Strategies 352  10 2050: The end of the growth era? 355  Stock Markets, Economics, and Population 355  The Pessimistic Viewpoint of \"Natural\" Scientists 357  The Optimistic Viewpoint of \"Social\" Scientists 359  Analysis of the Faster-Than-Exponential Growth of Population, GDP, and Financial Indices 361  Refinements of the Analysis 369  Complex Power Law Singularities 369  Prediction for the Coming Decade 371  The Aging \"Baby Boomers\" 377  Related Works and Evidence 378  Scenarios for the \"Singularity\" 383  Collapse 384  Transition to Sustainability 389  Resuming Accelerating Growth by Overpassing Fundamental Barriers 393  The Increasing Propensity to Emulate the Stock Market Approach 395  References 397  Index 419","brand":"Princeton University Press","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49403846000983,"sku":"9780691175959","price":18.0,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780691175959.jpg?v=1730484703"},{"product_id":"global-warming-and-agriculture-impact-estimates-by-country-9780881324037","title":"Global Warming and Agriculture  Impact Estimates","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"The Peterson Institute for International Economics","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49406449451351,"sku":"9780881324037","price":16.19,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9780881324037.jpg?v=1730495855"},{"product_id":"the-new-depression-9781118157794","title":"The New Depression","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eWhy the global recession is in danger of becoming another Great Depression, and how we can stop it     When the United States stopped backing dollars with gold in 1968, the nature of money changed. All previous constraints on money and credit creation were removed and a new economic paradigm took shape.\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTrade Review\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe book is well worth reading for its analysis. (The Economist, 7th July 2012) 'Contains a fascinating and powerful diagnosis of how we got to our current pass...he makes an astonishing proposal at the end that made my jaw drop.' (Wealthbriefing.com, 14th August 2012)\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003ePreface xi\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 How Credit Slipped Its Leash 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOpening Pandora’s Box 1\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConstraints on the Fed and on Paper Money Creation 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFractional Reserve Banking Run Amok 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFractional Reserve Banking 5\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCommercial Banks 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Broader Credit Market: Too Many Lenders, Not Enough Reserves 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredit without Reserves 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Flow of Funds 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rest of the World 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 15\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 The Global Money Glut 17\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Financial Account 18\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow It Works 20\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Percentage of Total Foreign Exchange Reserves Are Dollars? 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat to Do with So Many Dollars? 24\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat about the Remaining $2.8 Trillion? 26\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDebunking the Global Savings Glut Theory 28\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWill China Dump Its Dollars? 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 32\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Creditopia 33\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWho Borrowed the Money? 33\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact on the Economy 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNet Worth 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProfits 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTax Revenue 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDifferent, Not Just More 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact on Capital 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 The Quantity Theory of Credit 51\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Quantity Theory of Money 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Rise and Fall of Monetarism 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Quantity Theory of Credit 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredit and Inflation 59\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 61\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 The Policy Response: Perpetuating the Boom 63\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Credit Cycle 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Have They Done so Far? 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonetary Omnipotence and the Limits Thereof 66\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Balance Sheet of the Federal Reserve 67\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative Easing: Round One 69\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhat Did QE1 Accomplish? 71\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eQuantitative Easing: Round Two 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMonetizing the Debt 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Role of the Trade Deficit 75\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDiminishing Returns 76\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Other Money Makers 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 83\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Where Are We Now? 85\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHow Bad so Far? 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCredit Growth Drove Economic Growth 86\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSo, Where Does that Leave Us? 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhy Can’t TCMD Grow? 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Banking Industry: Why Still Too Big to Fail? 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobal Imbalances: Still Unresolved 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eVision and Leadership Are Still Lacking 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 How It Plays Out 107\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Business Cycle 107\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDebt: Public and Private 109\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2011: The Starting Point 111\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2012: Expect QE3 112\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact on Asset Prices 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2013–2014: Three Scenarios 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImpact on Asset Prices 118\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 120\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Disaster Scenarios 121\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Last Great Depression 121\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAnd This Time? 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBanking Crisis 126\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProtectionism 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGeopolitical Consequences 128\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNote 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 The Policy Options 133\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCapitalism and the Laissez-Faire Method 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe State of Government Finances 140\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Government’s Options 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAmerican Solar 143\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 147\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 Fire and Ice, Inflation and Deflation 149\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFire 150\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIce 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFisher’s Theory of Debt-Deflation 152\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWinners and Losers 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIce Storm 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFire Storm 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWealth Preservation through Diversification 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOther Observations Concerning Asset Prices in the\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAge of Paper Money 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eProtectionism and Inflation 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConsequences of Regulating Derivatives 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 166\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNotes 167\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eConclusion 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbout the Author 171\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 173\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49406837522775,"sku":"9781118157794","price":999.99,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":false}]},{"product_id":"profit-from-your-forecasting-software-9781119414575","title":"Profit From Your Forecasting Software","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003eGo beyond technique to master the difficult judgement calls of forecasting A variety of software can be used effectively to achieve accurate forecasting, but no software can replace the essential human component. You may be new to forecasting, or you may have mastered the statistical theory behind the software's predictions, and even more advanced power user techniques for the software itselfbut your forecasts will never reach peak accuracy unless you master the complex judgement calls that the software cannot make. Profit From Your Forecasting Software addresses the issues that arise regularly, and shows you how to make the correct decisions to get the most out of your software.    Taking a non-mathematical approach to the various forecasting models, the discussion covers common everyday decisions such as model choice, forecast adjustment, product hierarchies, safety stock levels, model fit, testing, and much more. Clear explanations help you better understand seasonal indices, smooth\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eTable of Contents\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eAcknowledgments xv\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ePrologue xvii\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 1 Profit from Accurate Forecasting 1\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.1 The Importance of Demand Forecasting 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.2 When Is a Forecast Not a Forecast? 2\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3 Ways of Presenting Forecasts 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3.1 Forecasts as Probability Distributions 3\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3.2 Point Forecasts 4\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.3.3 Prediction Intervals 6\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.4 The Advantages of Using Dedicated Demand Forecasting Software 7\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.5 Getting Your Data Ready for Forecasting 8\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.6 Trading-Day Adjustments 10\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.7 Overview of the Rest of the Book 11\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.8 Summary of Key Terms 12\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e1.9 References 13\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 2 How Your Software Finds Patterns in Past Demand Data 15\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.1 Introduction 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2 Key Features of Sales Histories 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.1 An Underlying Trend 16\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.2 A Seasonal Pattern 17\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.2.3 Noise 22\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.3 Autocorrelation 23\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.4 Intermittent Demand 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.5 Outliers and Special Events 25\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.6 Correlation 27\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.7 Missing Values 30\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.8 Wrap-Up 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e2.9 Summary of Key Terms 31\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 3 Understanding Your Software’s Bias and Accuracy Measures 33\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.1 Introduction 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2 Fitting and Forecasting 34\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2.1 Fixed-Origin Evaluations 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.2.2 Rolling-Origin Evaluations 36\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3 Forecast Errors and Bias Measures 38\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.1 The Mean Error (ME) 39\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.3.2 The Mean Percentage Error (MPE) 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4 Direct Accuracy Measures 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4.1 The Mean Absolute Error (MAE) 40\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.4.2 The Mean Squared Error (MSE) 41\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5 Percentage Accuracy Measures 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5.1 The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 42\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5.2 The Median Absolute Percentage Error (MDAPE) 44\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5.3 The Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) 44\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5.4 The MAD\/MEAN Ratio 45\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.5.5 Percentage Error Measures When There Is a Trend or Seasonal Pattern 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6 Relative Accuracy Measures 46\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6.1 Geometric Mean Relative Absolute Error (GMRAE) 47\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6.2 The Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) 48\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.6.3 Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) 49\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.7 Comparing the Different Accuracy Measures 50\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.8 Exception Reporting 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.9 Forecast Value-Added Analysis (FVA) 52\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.10 Wrap-Up 55\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.11 Summary of Key Terms 56\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e3.12 References 57\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 4 Curve Fitting and Exponential Smoothing 59\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.1 Introduction 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2 Curve Fitting 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.1 Common Types of Curve 60\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.2 Assessing How Well the Curve Fits the Sales History 63\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.2.3 Strengths and Limitations of Forecasts Based on Curve Fitting 64\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3 Exponential Smoothing Methods 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.1 Simple (or Single) Exponential Smoothing 65\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.2 Exponential Smoothing When There Is a Trend: Holt’s Method 68\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.3 The Damped Holt’s Method 70\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.4 Holt’s Method with an Exponential Trend 72\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.5 Exponential Smoothing Where There Is a Trend and Seasonal Pattern: The Holt-Winters Method 73\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.3.6 Overview of Exponential Smoothing Methods 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.4 Forecasting Intermittent Demand 74\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.5 Wrap-Up 77\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e4.6 Summary of Key Terms 78\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 5 Box-Jenkins ARIMA Models 81\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.1 Introduction 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.2 Stationarity 82\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.3 Models of Stationary Time Series: Autoregressive Models 85\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.4 Models of Stationary Time Series: Moving Average Models 87\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.5 Models of Stationary Time Series: Mixed Models 88\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.6 Fitting a Model to a Stationary Time Series 89\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7 Diagnostic Checks 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7.1 Check 1: Are the Coefficients of the Model Statistically Significant? 91\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7.2 Check 2: Overfitting—Should We Be Using a More Complex Model? 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7.3 Check 3: Are the Residuals of the Model White Noise? 92\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.7.4 Check 4: Are the Residuals Normally Distributed? 93\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.8 Models of Nonstationary Time Series: Differencing 94\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.9 Should You Include a Constant in Your Model of a Nonstationary Time Series? 96\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.10 What If a Series Is Nonstationary in the Variance? 97\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.11 ARIMA Notation 97\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.12 Seasonal ARIMA Models 98\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.13 Example of Fitting a Seasonal ARIMA Model 101\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.14 Wrap-Up 104\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e5.15 Summary of Key Terms 105\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 6 Regression Models 109\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.1 Introduction 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2 Bivariate Regression 110\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.1 Should You Drop the Constant? 113\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.2.2 Spurious Regression 114\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3 Multiple Regression 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.1 Interpreting Computer Output for Multiple Regression 115\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.2 Refitting the Model 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.3 Multicollinearity 119\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.4 Using Dummy Predictor Variables in Your Regression Model 123\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.3.5 Outliers and Influential Observations 127\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.4 Regression Versus Univariate Methods 129\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.5 Dynamic Regression 131\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.6 Wrap-Up 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.7 Summary of Key Terms 132\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.8 Appendix: Assumptions of Regression Analysis 134\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e6.9 Reference 136\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 7 Inventory Control, Aggregation, and Hierarchies 137\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.1 Introduction 138\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.2 Identifying Reorder Levels and Safety Stocks 139\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3 Estimating the Probability Distribution of Demand 142\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.3.1 Using Prediction Intervals to Determine Safety Stocks 144\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4 What If the Probability Distribution of Demand Is Not Normal? 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.1 The Log-Normal Distribution 146\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.4.2 Using the Poisson and Negative Binomial Distributions 148\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.5 Temporal Aggregation 151\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6 Dealing with Product Hierarchies and Reconciling Forecasts 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6.1 Bottom-Up Forecasting 154\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6.2 Top-Down Forecasting 155\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6.3 Middle-Out Forecasting 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6.4 Hybrid Methods 157\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.6.5 Issues and Future Developments 158\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.7 Wrap-Up 159\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.8 Summary of Key Terms 160\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e7.9 References 161\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 8 Automation and Choice 163\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.1 Introduction 164\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.2 How Much Past Data Do You Need to Apply Different Forecasting Methods? 165\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.3 Are More Complex Forecasting Methods Likely to Be More Accurate? 168\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.4 When It’s Best to Automate Forecasts 169\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.5 The Downside of Automation 173\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.6 Wrap-Up 174\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e8.7 References 175\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 9 Judgmental Interventions: When Are They Appropriate? 177\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.1 Introduction 178\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2 Psychological Biases That Might Catch You Out 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.1 Seeing Patterns in Randomness 179\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.2 Recency Bias 180\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.3 Hindsight Bias 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.2.4 Optimism Bias 181\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3 Restrict Your Interventions 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.1 Large Adjustments Perform Better 183\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.3.2 Focus Your Efforts Where They’ll Count 184\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4 Making Effective Interventions 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.1 Divide and Conquer 185\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.2 Using Analogies 186\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.3 Counteracting Optimism Bias 187\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.4 Harnessing the Power of Groups of Managers 189\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.4.5 Record Your Rationale 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.5 Combining Judgment and Statistical Forecasts 192\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.6 Wrap-Up 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e9.7 Reference 194\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 10 New Product Forecasting 195\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.1 Introduction 196\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.2 Dangers of Using Unstructured Judgment in New Product Forecasting 197\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3 Forecasting by Analogy 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.1 Structured Analogies 198\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.3.2 Applying Structured Analogies 199\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4 The Bass Diffusion Model 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4.1 Innovators and Imitators 203\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4.2 Estimating a Bass Model 204\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.4.3 Limitations of the Basic Bass Model 206\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.5 Wrap-Up 207\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.6 Summary of Key Terms 208\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e10.7 References 209\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eChapter 11 Summary: A Best Practice Blueprint for Using Your Software 211\u003c\/b\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.1 Introduction 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2 Desirable Characteristics of Forecasting Software 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.1 Data Preparation 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.2 Graphical Displays 212\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.3 Method Selection 214\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.4 Implementing Methods 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.5 Hierarchies 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.6 Forecasting with Probabilities 215\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.7 Support for Judgment 216\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.2.8 Presentation of Forecasts 216\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.3 A Blueprint for Best Practice 217\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e11.4 References 218\u003c\/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndex 219\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"John Wiley \u0026 Sons Inc","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":49407048778071,"sku":"9781119414575","price":34.19,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0817\/1739\/5799\/files\/9781119414575.jpg?v=1730498000"},{"product_id":"2030-how-todays-biggest-trends-will-collide-and-reshape-the-future-of-everything-9781250268198","title":"2030 How Todays Biggest Trends Will Collide and","description":"\u003cb\u003eBook Synopsis\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eINSTANT \u003ci\u003eWALL STREET JOURNAL \u003c\/i\u003eBESTSELLER!\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eBold, provocative...illuminates why we're having fewer babies, the middle class is stagnating, unemployment is shifting, and new powers are rising.\u003c\/b\u003e  \u003cbr\u003e\u003cb\u003eADAM GRANT\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003eThe world is changing drastically before our eyeswill you be prepared for what comes next? \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003eA groundbreaking analysis from one of the world''s foremost experts on global trends, including analysis on how \u003c\/b\u003e\u003cb\u003eCOVID-19 will amplify and accelerate each of these changes.\u003c\/b\u003e    \u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOnce upon a time, the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies. 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